According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic aggregated MDI market showed significant fluctuations in December. From December 1st to 26th, the domestic aggregated MDI market price dropped from 15966 yuan/ton to 15783 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 1.15% during the cycle and a maximum amplitude of 1.59%. The price increased by 3.97% year-on-year.

At the beginning of the month, the domestic aggregated MDI market prices fell, slowly declining, and the overall trading atmosphere was poor, with some shipments showing strong willingness. But as the settlement of supplier prices at the end of the month exceeded expectations, a cautious atmosphere increased, with slow follow-up being the main focus.

In mid month, the trading atmosphere in the domestic aggregated MDI market has improved. As prices fell to a relatively low point within the year, some orders increased and low-priced transactions were made. The market’s focus has slightly adjusted, with a stronger focus following suit.

In the latter half of the month, the domestic aggregated MDI market stabilized first and then strengthened, with most suppliers completing their year-end tasks ahead of schedule and slow delivery rates. Coupled with maintenance cycles, the operating load remained low, and the downstream cold chain industry maintained stable output. The market’s spot supply was tight, boosting its momentum.

As the end of the month approaches, the domestic aggregated MDI market is experiencing a narrow decline, with temperatures plummeting in many regions and terminal markets being hindered by construction, resulting in a significant decrease in demand follow-up capabilities. The quoted prices of traders have slightly declined, maintaining their willingness to ship.

The supply side is influenced by favorable factors.

On the cost side, raw material pure benzene: In December, the domestic pure benzene market first fell and then rose. As of December 26th, the benchmark price of pure benzene by Shengyishe was 7050.50 yuan/ton. Raw material aniline: In December, the price of aniline was weakly adjusted. As of December 26th, the benchmark price of aniline in Shengyishe was 10662.50 yuan/ton. The cost of short-term aggregated MDI is mixed.

On the demand side, as the annual handover month approaches, some contract orders have signed plans, creating a strong atmosphere of upward momentum. Although the follow-up ability on the demand side is still average, and with the recent rainy, snowy, and cold weather in the north, construction is hindered, and the support on the consumption side is insufficient. Recently, there are limitations on on-site warehouse orders, and there is a focus on following up on essential orders. The demand for short-term aggregated MDI is affected by bearish factors.

In the future market forecast, the supply side is relatively stable, and the overall follow-up of the downstream demand side is limited. Business Society’s aggregated MDI analysts predict that domestic aggregated MDI may continue to narrow down.

Recently, the market for epoxy propane has seen a slight increase. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of December 25th, the average price of epoxy propane for enterprises was 9225.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.14% compared to last Thursday (December 21st).

Cost side: According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market has experienced a decline and then an increase in recent times (12.18-12.22). The average price in the Shandong market at the beginning of the week was 6895 yuan/ton, and the average price over the weekend was 6926 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.47%. The propylene market rose on Monday, and costs faced increased support from the epoxy propane market.

Supply and demand side: Last week approaching the weekend, the supply side was mainly stable, factory shipments were still acceptable, inventory pressure was controllable, downstream remained wait-and-see and followed, and the market was running steadily. This Monday, the supply side was mostly operating without pressure, while downstream new orders were average, and the market was mainly wait-and-see. On December 25th, the mainstream quotation in the Shandong epoxy propane market was 9150-9200 yuan/ton.

The epoxy propane analyst from Business Society believes that the current cost and supply side support is still acceptable, and downstream observers should follow up appropriately. It is expected that in the short term, the epoxy propane market may operate stably, moderately, and strongly, and more attention should be paid to market news guidance.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of domestic liquid caprolactam on December 18th was 13075 yuan/ton, and on December 22nd, the average market price of domestic liquid caprolactam was 13425 yuan/ton. The price of caprolactam increased by 2.68% this week.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of caprolactam continued to rise this week. The price of raw material pure benzene has increased, leading to increased cost support. Downstream demand is stable, with on-demand procurement being the main focus. The spot supply of caprolactam is tightening, with support from the supply and demand sides. As of December 22nd, Sinopec’s high-end caprolactam settled at a price of 13575 yuan/ton this month. It is a liquid premium product and will be accepted and self picked up in June.

This week, the price of raw material pure benzene has increased. On December 18th, the price of pure benzene was 6837 yuan/ton. On Friday (December 22nd), the price of pure benzene was 7080 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.76% from last week and 8.38% from the same period last year. This week, the price of Sinopec pure benzene was 6950 yuan/ton (prices in Shandong and Hebei regions increased by 150 yuan/ton simultaneously).

The downstream PA6 market has risen this week. The price of caprolactam has increased significantly, and the cost support for PA6 has strengthened. The load of domestic polymerization plants is almost horizontal, and the inventory position remains low. The demand side is cautious in purchasing goods, and market trading tends towards the low-end. As of December 22nd, the average reference price for domestic PA6 is 14575 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society Caprolactam Analysts believe that the recent market trend of caprolactam is relatively strong. The price of raw material pure benzene has rebounded and risen, and the downstream PA6 market is improving. In addition, the supply of caprolactam in the market is tight. Under the influence of favorable factors, it is expected that the price of caprolactam will continue to rise in the short term.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the formaldehyde market in Shandong has recently declined. At the beginning of the week, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1193.33 yuan/ton, and on the weekend, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1186.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.56%. The current price has dropped by 5.32% compared to last year.

formaldehyde

Recently, the price of formaldehyde in the Shandong region has fluctuated and fallen. From the above chart, it can be seen that the formaldehyde market has mainly fluctuated slightly in the past two months, with a slight decline this week. As of December 21st, the mainstream market price in Shandong region is 1100-1260 yuan/ton. This week, the price of raw material methanol fluctuated and fell, with poor cost support. Downstream sheet factories frequently took vacations, and procurement efforts led to a decline in the formaldehyde market.

Upstream methanol situation: In terms of supply, there is currently not much pressure on power plant replenishment, and there is a strong wait-and-see attitude. Most of the procurement plans have been postponed, resulting in low market activity. With the start of gas restrictions in Southwest China, there is a downward trend in domestic supply and demand, but there has been no significant change for the time being. Business Society Methanol Analyst predicts that the domestic methanol market is mainly weak and consolidating.

Recently, the methanol market has been weak and consolidating, with poor cost support and poor downstream demand. Therefore, formaldehyde analysts from the Chemical Branch of Shengyishe predict that the price of formaldehyde in Shandong will mainly decline in the near future.

Recently, the market for epoxy propane has remained stable, with some companies experiencing narrow price fluctuations. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of December 19th, the average price of epoxy propane for enterprises was 9287.50 yuan/ton, a 0.13% decrease compared to last Wednesday (December 13th).

Cost side: According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market has recently experienced a slight decline. On December 19th, the reference price for propylene was 6883.25, a decrease of 3.13% compared to December 1st (7105.75). Recently, the upstream liquid chlorine price has slightly increased, and the cost face is generally supported by the epoxypropane market.

Supply and demand side: Last Wednesday, the supply was stable and factory shipments were flat, with limited downstream follow-up. As prices remained low, downstream watchful increments followed, factory shipments rebounded, and inventory pressure gradually eased. At the beginning of this week, Qixiang stopped selling 70%, supporting the market’s price boosting mentality. Downstream watchful follow-up was moderate. On December 19th, the mainstream quotation in the East China epoxy propane market was 9200-9300 yuan/ton.

The epoxy propane analyst from Business Society believes that the current cost support is average, factory shipments are still acceptable, and the market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. It is expected that in the short term, the epoxy propane market may continue to operate in a consolidation manner, and more attention should be paid to market news guidance.