According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of September 14th, the average quoted price of epichlorohydrin enterprises was 8350.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.30% compared to Monday’s price and a decrease of 26.32% compared to the same period last year.

This week, the market for epichlorohydrin remained stable and saw some growth. Recently, the price of raw material glycerol has been stable, while the price of raw material propylene has risen, with significant cost support. In addition, some enterprises have no inventory pressure, and their mentality to lower prices is not strong. The news of expected increase in supply has had an impact. Downstream follow-up enthusiasm is average, with cautious wait-and-see as the main focus. The high-end transaction atmosphere in the market has remained stagnant. On the 14th, the mainstream negotiations in the Shandong epichlorohydrin market were around 8300-8500 yuan/ton.

Upstream propylene, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the reference price for propylene on September 13th was 7265.75, an increase of 2.14% compared to September 1st (7113.25).

Downstream epoxy resin, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the reference price for epoxy resin on September 13th was 14933.33, an increase of 3.23% compared to September 1st (14466.67).

Analysts from Business Society’s epichlorohydrin believe that the current cost support is strong, coupled with downstream pre holiday stocking expectations, which have some support for the market. However, the news of some device plans restarting has affected downstream procurement enthusiasm, and the mentality of operators is under pressure. It is expected that the epichlorohydrin market may remain stagnant and operate on a wait-and-see basis in the short term, and more attention still needs to be paid to changes in the market supply and demand side.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic maleic anhydride market continued to rise in September. As of September 13th, the average market price of n-butane oxidation maleic anhydride remained at 7939.80 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.97% compared to the price of 7220.00 yuan/ton on September 1st.

On September 13th, the maleic anhydride commodity index was 74.80, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 55.06% from the cycle’s highest point of 166.43 points (2021-12-15), and an increase of 46.15% from the lowest point of 51.18 points on April 14th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Rising Crude Oil Boosts Domestic Maleic Anhydride Market

The international crude oil market has recently risen. OPEC+, an oil producing country, is rumored to have extended production cuts. The market expects an additional 1 million barrels of production reduction from Saudi Arabia to continue until December, while Russia’s crude oil production reduction will continue until December. Supply tightening is expected to continue to ferment and boost the oil market; In addition, the weakening of the US dollar has led to a rebound in oil market valuations and the potential impact of storms in the US Gulf on energy supply. The market is concerned that OPEC’s production reduction in oil producing countries may lead to tight energy supply in the fourth quarter, pushing oil prices to a new 10 month high.

Continuous rise in the market for n-butane and hydrogenated benzene drives up the domestic maleic anhydride market

On the upstream side, recent crude oil prices have continued to rise, styrene prices have risen, and Sinopec’s pure benzene prices have been raised to 8500 yuan/ton. Supported by multiple positive factors, pure benzene prices have risen, and the hydrogenation benzene market has been significantly driven up this week, with factory prices in the main production areas rising to 8700-8900 yuan/ton. Recently, the market for n-butane has continued to rise, and as of September 13th, the price in Shandong is around 5500-5600 yuan/ton.

The rise of unsaturated resin market drives the domestic maleic anhydride market

Recently, the main raw material styrene in the downstream unsaturated resin market of maleic anhydride has continued to rise, boosting the atmosphere in the resin market. Downstream procurement of resin has increased, and shipments are active. The resin shipment has improved, and the procurement of raw material maleic anhydride has increased, supporting the maleic anhydride market. As of the 13th, the solid anhydride in Shandong region is around 8200 yuan/ton, Jiangsu region is around 8200 yuan/ton, and South China region is around 8600 yuan/ton.

Business Society maleic anhydride product analysts believe that the current prices of raw materials for maleic anhydride, n-butane and hydrogenated benzene, continue to be high, and the downstream unsaturated resin market has improved; In addition, many of the main factories of maleic anhydride are currently closed, and the execution of preliminary orders is the main focus, resulting in a tight supply of maleic anhydride in stock. It is expected that the maleic anhydride market may continue its upward trend in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic aggregated MDI market has been fluctuating and declining. From September 5th to 12th, the domestic aggregated MDI market price fell from 17183 yuan/ton to 16983 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 1.16% during the cycle, a month on month decrease of 2.67%, and a year-on-year increase of 6.15%. At the beginning of the month, some sources of goods gradually filled in, while the demand side consumption capacity was slightly average, resulting in a slow decline in aggregated MDI prices.

On the supply side, the overall supply has recovered. The supply side is influenced by bearish factors.

On the cost side, the raw materials of pure benzene, crude oil and styrene are relatively strong, coupled with positive factors such as the demand increase brought by downstream production in September and early stocking before holidays, the price of pure benzene continues to rise; As of September 12th, the benchmark price of pure benzene for Shangshang Society is 8045.50 yuan/ton. Raw material aniline: The domestic aniline market price is actively strengthening, and the price of raw material pure benzene has increased, resulting in stronger cost support. In September and October, some factories have significant maintenance plans for their aniline plants. Currently, the factories are reluctant to sell and the market is bullish. As of September 12th, the benchmark price for aniline in the business community is 12675.00 yuan/ton. The cost side of aggregated MDI is influenced by favorable factors.

On the demand side, the overall improvement of the downstream segment is still limited at the current stage, with a relatively stable and cold environment. However, the performance of pipelines, spraying, and other aspects is mediocre. The supply side is abundant, and the efficiency of spot circulation has increased compared to before. The middle and downstream sectors are increasingly purchasing according to demand. The demand for short-term aggregated MDI is mixed.

In the future market forecast, with high costs as the support, the supply side benefits are gradually disappearing, and downstream demand is average. Business Society MDI analysts predict that the domestic aggregated MDI market is mainly weak and organized.

Recent price trends of urea

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic urea market price rose first and then fell this week. The urea price dropped from 2678.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2658.33 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.75%. Weekend prices increased by 5.28% year-on-year. On September 10th, the urea commodity index was 123.64, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 18.83% from the cycle’s highest point of 152.33 points (2022-05-15), and an increase of 122.37% from the lowest point of 55.60 points on August 17th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Cost support is good, downstream demand weakens, and urea supply is sufficient

From the supply side perspective, the mainstream price of urea in China has slightly decreased this week.

From the data of the upstream and downstream industry chains, it can be seen that the urea upstream market has significantly increased this week: the price of liquefied natural gas has significantly increased, from 4020.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 4476.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 11.34%, and the weekend price has decreased by 24.52% year-on-year; The price of anthracite has stabilized at a low level, with the price of Yangquan anthracite (washing medium block) at 1160 yuan/ton this week; The price of liquid ammonia has slightly increased, rising from 3333.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 3833.33 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 5.50%. The weekend price has decreased by 7.26% year-on-year. The prices of upstream raw materials have significantly increased, providing good support for urea prices. This week, the downstream melamine price of urea has stabilized at a high level, with a price of 7425.00 yuan/ton.

From a demand perspective, agricultural demand has weakened, industrial demand is average, and urea exports are good. Sporadic fertilization in agriculture. The operating rate of the compound fertilizer plant is average, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement is normal. Board and melamine enterprises generally start construction and mainly purchase on demand. From a supply perspective: Some enterprises have stopped for maintenance, and their daily urea production is around 160000-170000 tons, indicating sufficient supply.

Small fluctuation and decline in the future market

In mid to late September, the domestic urea market may experience a slight fluctuation and decline. Business Society urea analysts believe that the upstream market of urea has slightly increased, and urea costs are well supported. But downstream agricultural demand has basically ended, and industrial demand is average. The daily production of urea is around 160000-170000 tons, with sufficient supply. In the future, urea may experience a narrow range of fluctuations and decline.

Price trend

In early September, the domestic EVA market remained stagnant and spot prices were generally flat. According to data monitoring from Business Society, as of September 8th, the average factory price of EVA in China was 14000 yuan/ton, an increase of 0% compared to the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

The domestic EVA market prices stabilized at the beginning of this month. On the supply side, the operating rate of the EVA industry has increased compared to last month, and the current load position is around 88%. The market supply has increased compared to the previous period, and the pressure on factory inventory has increased. The profitability of EVA polymerization plants has generally increased in a narrow range, with manufacturers’ factory prices mainly showing a strong market trend. The pressure on social inventory is average, and the confidence of traders is relatively stable supported by the high prices of polymerization factories. The demand side maintains a differentiated pattern in the face of EVA price market support. The demand for photovoltaic materials has entered the traditional peak season, and terminal enterprises have a good enthusiasm for stocking, which clearly supports the market. The price of photovoltaic film materials has increased. The follow-up of end companies in the direction of foaming materials lags behind, with low actual prices and consumption maintaining at off-season levels, dragging down the overall demand side of EVA. The overall stocking operation on the site is based on demand, with enterprises generally accepting high priced goods and prices being pulled by markets from different directions, resulting in a stalemate in operation.

Overall, the supply of EVA in the early September market increased, and the downstream demand side was still driven by the main force of photovoltaic. The continuous weak demand for foaming materials has dragged down the overall market. Overall, companies mainly offer stable prices, while merchants follow the market. It is expected that the domestic EVA market may continue to remain stagnant in the short term.