According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the asphalt market is experiencing a unilateral decline. From November 28th to December 5th, the price of asphalt in Shandong region increased from 3447 yuan/ton to 3459 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.34%, a month on month decrease of 9.03%, and a year-on-year decrease of 2.14%. The long-term winter storage of asphalt is gradually landing, and the enthusiasm of futures and traders to purchase goods is high, with spot prices mainly maintaining large stability and small increases.

On the supply side, the comprehensive operating rate of the asphalt industry has decreased compared to the previous month, which has had a positive impact on the supply side.

On the cost side, the international crude oil futures market is experiencing weak fluctuations. According to a report released by the US Energy Information Agency (EIA), inventories of US crude oil, gasoline, and distillates have all increased. As of the close on December 4th, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures main contract was 78.03 yuan/barrel, a decrease of 0.85 US dollars or 1.1%.

On the demand side, the main demand is in various regions, with small transactions being the main focus. The demand side of the asphalt market is influenced by bearish factors.

As of the close on December 5th, the main asphalt contract 2402 opened at 3610 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 3628 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 3585 yuan/ton. It closed at 3599 yuan/ton in the end, a decrease of 53 yuan/ton from the previous trading day’s settlement, a decrease of 1.45%. The trading volume was 98404 lots, the position was 124315 lots, and the daily increase was -6273 lots.

In the future market forecast, prices at the bottom of the market will remain stable and rise slightly. Asphalt analysts from Shengyishe predict that the domestic asphalt market will continue to consolidate and operate.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, from November 27th to December 4th, the domestic ethanol price dropped from 6825 yuan/ton to 6787 yuan/ton, with a weekly price drop of 0.55%, a month on month decrease of 1.38%, and a year-on-year decrease of 0.55%. The increase in freight rates in some regions has led to a slight increase in delivery prices, but the factory’s shipment situation is weak, with actual orders mainly operating at the low-end. The domestic ethanol market is operating weakly.

On the cost side, with the gradual improvement of weather, the main production area in Northeast China has seen a continuous increase in corn market volume. The new season of corn production has become a certainty, and downstream trading entities have a strong wait-and-see attitude. The demand for feed in the downstream breeding industry continues to be sluggish, and imported corn and its substitutes continue to arrive in Hong Kong. The domestic corn market supply is relatively loose, and the overall price of corn in the market is under pressure and fluctuates weakly. The cost side of ethanol is influenced by bearish factors.

On the supply side, there is a significant difference in the operating rates of production enterprises in different regions, with 32.85% operating in East China and 94.98% operating in Northeast China; The operating rate in the southern and western regions is 15.84%; In the short term, domestic ethanol production in Northeast China is stable or slightly increasing, and small factories have plans to start production. The operating rate in East China fluctuates at a low level. The operating rate of coal to ethanol remains stable in the short term. The supply side of ethanol is affected by bearish factors.

On the demand side, most ethyl acetate factories maintain normal production status. There is a possibility of restoring the ethyl acetate factory. Baijiu just needs to be purchased. The short-term demand for ethanol is mixed.

In the future market forecast, there is a bearish cost situation and significant regional differences in supply and demand. Ethanol analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic ethanol market may experience weak consolidation in the short term.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the acrylonitrile market rose and fell in November. As of November 30th, the price of loose water in the acrylonitrile market was 10100 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.62% from the 9562 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The price of raw material propylene fluctuates narrowly, and there is still support for the cost of acrylonitrile; One of the main downstream industries, ABS, has stable production and demand is supported by acrylonitrile; Acrylonitrile production slightly increased in November, but due to demand and cost support, the price of acrylonitrile remained strong in November.

The load of the acrylonitrile unit fluctuated slightly in November.

In November, the price of raw material propylene fluctuated and stabilized, while the cost of acrylonitrile continued to support. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of November 30th, the domestic propylene price was 7105 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.78% from 7050 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

There is a strong demand for downstream support for acrylonitrile in November. In November, the production of downstream ABS industry facilities remained around 80%, providing support for acrylonitrile; In November, the demand for acrylic fiber terminals continued to be sluggish, and the inventory pressure of finished products from acrylic yarn manufacturers increased. Some acrylic fiber factories underwent maintenance, and the overall operating rate of the acrylic fiber industry decreased, weakening the demand for acrylic fiber; The nitrile rubber Nandi and Ningbo Shunze nitrile units have successively shut down and started feeding, resulting in a slight fluctuation in demand for acrylonitrile in November; Low starting point of polyacrylamide and other materials; Overall, downstream demand for acrylonitrile in the 11th stage is well supported by immediate demand.

Market forecast: Acrylonitrile analysts from Business Society believe that the current supply of acrylonitrile is still relatively sufficient, but downstream procurement efforts have weakened at the end of the month. However, there is still support for high raw material prices to consolidate the cost of acrylonitrile. Overall, it is expected that the acrylonitrile market will experience a slight decline and narrow consolidation in the short term.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the overall domestic market for maleic anhydride has been declining recently. As of November 30, the average market price of n-butane oxidation maleic anhydride remained at 7120.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.52% from the price of 7230.00 yuan/ton on November 23.

Rising crude oil prices support the domestic maleic anhydride market

The expectation of OPEC+crude oil production reduction in the near future has supported the continuous rise in crude oil market prices. As of the 29th, the settlement price of the US WTI crude oil futures main contract was $77.86 per barrel, and the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures main contract was $82.88 per barrel. On the one hand, OPEC+has the possibility of extending and deepening production cuts, mainly due to the organization’s concerns about weak global crude oil demand and member countries’ demands for high oil prices. Saudi Arabia may continue to implement additional production cuts, and the voluntary policy of reducing production by 1 million barrels per day may be extended until the second/third quarter of 2024. This news has boosted the crude oil market. On the other hand, US crude oil and gasoline inventories have decreased. As of the week ending November 24th, US crude oil inventories decreased by 817000 barrels, which to some extent supported international oil prices. Overall, supported by positive news recently, the crude oil market has shown an upward trend.

Hydrogenated benzene market is declining, while n-butane trend is overall rising

Upstream: As pure benzene approaches the end of the month, there are some unexpected parking plans in the downstream market, which has affected the overall weak expectations of the downstream market. Sinopec has cumulatively lowered its listing price by 850 yuan/ton within the month, and currently implements a price reduction of 7200 yuan/ton. The mainstream ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene has fallen, with some regions dropping to 6850 yuan/ton. Most of the main production areas have quoted at 7200 yuan/ton. Due to recent market performance, some hydrogenated benzene enterprises have maintenance plans, and the overall market atmosphere is weak. Recently, the overall trend of n-butane has been upward, and as of November 30th, the price in Shandong is around 5400-5500 yuan/ton.

Unsaturated resin market is weak, consolidation and trading are poor

Downstream: Recently, the market for unsaturated resins in the downstream has been declining, and there is currently no significant positive trend in the resin market. Downstream demand is limited, and overall trading is poor.

Business Society’s maleic anhydride product analyst believes that currently, the upstream hydrogenation benzene market for maleic anhydride has fallen, and the cost support for maleic anhydride is limited; The downstream unsaturated resin market is weak, with limited procurement and limited new orders from maleic anhydride factories. The fundamentals are weak, and factories are stabilizing their shipments. It is expected that the maleic anhydride market will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the domestic cyclohexanone market was weak in November. From November 1st to 29th, the average price of cyclohexanone in the domestic market dropped from 9462 yuan/ton to 9406 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.59%, and the price decreased by 0.38% year-on-year.

At the beginning of the month, the raw material pure benzene experienced weak fluctuations, with stable cost support and stable spot supply of cyclohexanone. Downstream demand followed up, and the domestic cyclohexanone market operated steadily.

In the first half of the month, the spot price of raw material pure benzene fell, and Sinopec listed twice to lower it to 7750 yuan/ton, lacking cost support. The demand for downstream chemical fibers and solvents in the market is average, and they are mostly purchased on demand. Some production enterprises have restarted their facilities, and there is an expected increase in spot supply. The fundamentals of cyclohexanone are weak, and the trading center has fallen.

In mid month, the raw material pure benzene fluctuated and operated, with relatively stable cost support. Some downstream enterprises of caprolactam reduced production, and the product market rose, driving the cyclohexanone market. Other downstream demand is average, and the increase in cyclohexanone market is hindered by the high price of shipments in the market.

As the end of the month approaches, the raw material pure benzene is facing a weak consolidation. Sinopec pure benzene has been listed and lowered to 7550 yuan/ton, lacking cost support. The commodity volume of cyclohexanone is not high, but downstream demand is weak, and more purchases are made on demand. The domestic cyclohexanone market is experiencing a weak consolidation.

On the cost side, the domestic pure benzene market was operating weakly in November. As of November 29th, the benchmark price of pure benzene for Shengyishe was 7445.50 yuan/ton%. In the cost composition of the traditional cyclohexanone process route, pure benzene accounts for 53%. The market trend of pure benzene directly affects the price trend of cyclohexanone, and the short-term cost of cyclohexanone is affected by negative factors.

On the supply side, according to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic production capacity of cyclohexanone is about 6.55 million tons, and the current operating load is about 60%, which is at a relatively low level. The short-term supply of cyclohexanone is influenced by favorable factors.

On the demand side, the domestic market for caprolactam saw a narrow increase in November, with cyclohexanone units mainly supporting downstream production of caprolactam. Caprolactam is one of the main downstream sources of cyclohexanone. Some companies may undergo maintenance or load reduction of caprolactam units, resulting in tight spot supply in the market and stable downstream demand. Supported by supply and demand, the market trend of caprolactam is improving. As of November 29th, the benchmark price of caprolactam for Shengyishe is 13250.00 yuan/ton. The demand for cyclohexanone is temporarily positive.

In the future market forecast, the raw material pure benzene will operate in a volatile manner, and the cost pressure will not decrease. The spot supply and demand of cyclohexanone are weak, and the cyclohexanone analyst from Business Society predicts that the domestic cyclohexanone market will mainly consolidate in the short term.