Product name: PVC

Latest price: 5864 yuan/ton

Analysis points: On November 8th, the spot market price of PVC fell, and the trading atmosphere on the market weakened. Today, futures fell first and then rose, with a slight increase in closing prices. At present, the PVC spot market is average, with poor downstream demand and a focus on wait-and-see. The transaction situation in the spot market is light.

It is expected that the PVC spot market will be organized and operated within the range in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic market price of neopentyl glycol has slightly decreased this week. This week, the average price of the mainstream domestic market for neopentyl glycol dropped from 10600.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 10525.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 0.71%, and the weekend price increased by 8.88% year-on-year. On November 7th, the new pentanediol commodity index was 50.24, a decrease of 0.48 points from yesterday, a decrease of 51.51% from the cycle’s highest point of 103.61 points (2021-09-22), and an increase of 16.70% from the lowest point of 43.05 points on November 28th, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2021 to present)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the mainstream market price of neopentyl glycol slightly decreased.

From the upstream raw material market of neopentyl glycol, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price has significantly decreased this week. This week, the average price of isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream domestic market dropped from 8300.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7933.33 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 4.42%, and the weekend price increased by 16.10% year-on-year. The upstream raw material market prices have significantly decreased, with insufficient cost support. Due to the impact of supply and demand, it has a negative impact on the price of neopentyl glycol.

3、 Future prospects

In mid November, the market trend of new pentanediol may fluctuate slightly and decline mainly. The upstream isobutyraldehyde market has significantly declined, with insufficient cost support. The downstream paint market is average, and the enthusiasm for downstream procurement is average. Analysts from Business Society believe that in the short term, the market for new pentanediol may experience slight fluctuations and declines due to various factors such as supply and demand, as well as raw materials.

Recent price trends of calcium carbide

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the ex factory prices of calcium carbide in the northwest region have temporarily stabilized this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in northwest China was 2916.67 yuan/ton, and the weekend price fell by 24.89% year-on-year. On November 5th, the calcium carbide commodity index was 76.42, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 63.99% from the cycle’s highest point of 212.23 points (2021-10-26), and an increase of 37.72% from the lowest point of 55.49 points on March 14th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Weakened upstream support and increased downstream demand

From the supply side perspective, the ex factory prices of calcium carbide in the northwest region have temporarily stabilized this week, and the manufacturer’s inventory is average.

The upstream blue charcoal market slightly declined, while the downstream PVC market prices slightly increased. This weekend, the price of Shenmulan charcoal intermediate was around 1230-1330 yuan/ton, with a decrease of about 100 yuan/ton, indicating insufficient cost support. The PVC market price has slightly increased this week, rising from 5854.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 5884.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 0.51%. Weekend prices fell by 2.40% year-on-year. The PVC market price has slightly increased, and downstream customers have a good enthusiasm for purchasing calcium carbide. The downstream PVC market has a positive impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Calcium carbide may fluctuate and decline in the aftermarket

In mid November, the calcium carbide market may experience narrow fluctuations and decline. Although the downstream PVC market has slightly increased and downstream demand has improved, the price of raw material blue charcoal has slightly decreased, and cost support is insufficient. It is expected that the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region will fluctuate and fall in a narrow range in mid November, with consolidation being the main trend.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the market price of isopropanol continued to decline this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of isopropanol in China was 8500 yuan/ton, while the average price over the weekend was 7870 yuan/ton. During the week, the price decreased by 7.41%.

The market price of isopropanol continued to decline this week. At present, the market situation is light, and the overall trading sentiment is not good. The upstream acetone market saw a significant decrease in acetone manufacturers, resulting in weak cost support. Traders have low enthusiasm for buying goods, weak market price confidence, and downstream customers are more wait-and-see. They are cautious in actual orders and transactions. As of now, the majority of quotations for isopropanol in the Shandong region are around 7550-7600 yuan/ton; The majority of prices for isopropanol in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions are around 8100-8200 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material acetone, the market price of acetone fell this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of acetone was 7425 yuan/ton, while on Friday, the average price was 6937.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.57%. Acetone continued to decline this week, leading to a weakening market and a slowdown in intraday trading.

In terms of propylene, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market prices have increased this week, with an average price of 7100.75 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 6958.25 yuan/ton at the weekend. The price has decreased by 2.01%. At present, the propylene market is average, with significant cost pressure on enterprises and prices stabilizing.

3、 Future Market Forecast

An isopropanol analyst from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society believes that the upstream acetone market has significantly declined, the propylene market price has fallen, and both raw materials are weak, resulting in weak cost support. The overall market demand is lukewarm and tepid, and downstream and traders are cautious in purchasing, so they are more wait-and-see. It is expected that the isopropanol market will be weak in the short term and will continue to consolidate and operate.

Price trend

In October, the domestic EVA market was negative, with spot prices decreasing in a stepwise manner. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of October 31, the benchmark price of EVA in China was 12166.67 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 7.59% compared to the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

The supply of ethylene in the raw material end was sufficient in October, and the port inventory was stable. The cost fluctuation is relatively weak, and the benefits for ethylene are not significant. The supply and demand contradiction on the market only slightly alleviated by the end of the month;

The trading situation in the vinyl acetate industry is average, and the follow-up of on-site stocking is weak. At the same time, the weakening of upstream raw materials such as ethylene has led to a weak guidance for the vinyl acetate market. In addition, as vinyl acetate is about to enter the traditional off-season and demand expectations are poor, multiple bearish factors have led to a weak consolidation of the vinyl acetate market. The market for EVA raw materials is weak, and there is not significant support for the EVA market.

On the supply side:

In October, domestic EVA enterprises underwent maintenance and restart, but the scale was relatively small. The industry’s operating rate has rebounded from around 80% at the beginning of the month and climbed to around 82% at the end of the month. The overall inventory pressure of the enterprise is moderate, but the continuous high load gradually accumulates supply pressure. The confidence of manufacturers has weakened, and the factory price has been lowered. EVA suppliers have poor support for spot goods.

In terms of demand:

The sluggish EVA peak season in October has not improved. The demand for photovoltaic film has been exhausted for a long time, and consumption is becoming increasingly weak in the second half of the month. The demand for foam shoe materials has been weak for a long time, and the weak demand for EVA continues. Enterprises are cautious in their operations and have not seen any hoarding operations as they focus on just getting goods. There is very little trading on the market, and actual orders are concentrated in low-end sources, while high priced sources are highly resistant.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, the EVA market performed negatively in October. The raw material market is weak, and there is insufficient support for EVA spot sales. After the industry load drops, it rises, and supply pressure gradually rises. The current bearish guidance in the EVA market may activate some stocking demand after the spot price drops, but the possibility of a significant increase is unlikely. It is expected that the EVA market will continue to consolidate in the short term.