In late August, natural rubber fluctuated slightly and rose. The Shanghai Rubber 01 contract fluctuated from around 13200 yuan/ton to around 13330 yuan/ton, and continued to fluctuate slightly thereafter. It is reported that the spot latex prices in the Chinese market continue to rise slightly, with an average increase of around 100-150 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the trend of natural rubber has fluctuated slightly this month and has risen. Since late August, the spot rubber market in China has fluctuated from around 11760 yuan/ton to around 12100 yuan/ton, an increase of about 2.1%.

Influencing factors:

1. Limited production of new rubber due to rainy production areas

On the supply side, in terms of new rubber production, firstly, during the peak season of global new rubber production, major production areas such as Thailand and Vietnam have been affected by rainfall, resulting in reduced production. Secondly, due to the continuous decline in latex prices in the early stage, the enthusiasm of rubber farmers for cutting rubber has been suppressed. However, the expected increase in demand in the product industry in the near future has improved the enthusiasm compared to the previous stage; Once again, in the previous stage, traders’ imports decreased, and the pressure on rubber imports slowed down to a certain extent. In terms of inventory, the entry speed of spot inventory has slowed down, and the arrival volume of dark glue at the port has decreased. Driven by the improvement in the production of products in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone’s spot glue warehouse, the speed of destocking has accelerated.

2. Expectations for a slight increase in demand during peak season

On the demand side, we are about to enter the “Golden Age”, and downstream product enterprises are just in need of a slight increase. The domestic sales of tires are insufficient, but the demand for foreign trade has increased. The demand for domestic travel and logistics industries continues to release, downstream consumption continues to increase, and the operating rate of product factories continues to be high. The natural rubber market continues to rise slightly, and the sentiment of “buying up rather than buying down” in the market is still relatively obvious. The traditional consumption peak season of “Golden Nine Silver Ten” is approaching, and driven by frequent national policies and measures to promote automobile consumption, tire companies have a certain stock demand. With the rebound in demand for latex products and the increase in raw material prices, natural rubber procurement is more active than in the previous stage, but the amplitude is not very prominent.

Future Market Forecast:

Regarding the future market, recent rainfall in Southeast Asia has had a significant impact on the production of new rubber, and the supply of new rubber has slowed down. The current export situation of tire enterprises is good, and factories are operating at a high level. The “Golden Nine Silver Ten” consumption peak season is approaching, and the natural rubber market has some positive demand support. Analysis suggests that natural rubber, which has been at a low market level for a long time, may experience fluctuations and upward trends in the future market driven by the aforementioned factors. However, the demand situation is only showing a positive trend and has not entered a stage of significant increase, so it is inevitable to experience further fluctuations. There has been a certain upward trend in prices recently, and there may be downward pressure in the short term.

According to data from Business News Agency, as of August 30th, the average quoted price of maleic anhydride was 7220.00 yuan/ton (including tax), an increase of 11.42% from 6480.00 yuan/ton on August 1st.

Business agency: Strong upward trend of n-butane in August, driving up the domestic maleic anhydride market

On August 30th, the maleic anhydride commodity index was 68.01, a decrease of 0.57 points from yesterday, a decrease of 59.14% from the highest point in the cycle of 166.43 points (2021-12-15), and a 32.88% increase from the lowest point of 51.18 points on April 14th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

In August, the downstream resin market followed the rise of the maleic anhydride market, and the resin downstream just needed replenishment. The resin manufacturers’ shipments were average, but the replenishment of maleic anhydride was limited. In mid August, the price of raw material n-butane skyrocketed from around 4500 yuan/ton to 5700 yuan/ton, and the price of maleic anhydride factories continued to rise; At the end of August, the market for n-butane fell back to 4700 yuan/ton, while the market for maleic anhydride slightly declined. As of the 30th, the solid anhydride in Shandong region is around 6900 yuan/ton, Jiangsu region is around 6900 yuan/ton, and South China region is around 7500 yuan/ton.

In August, crude oil emerged from a trend of rising and falling, and in the first half of the year, the market continued to rise amidst supply concerns and the positive trend of the peak oil consumption season. Brent crude oil topped $87 per barrel, while WTI crude oil approached $83, reaching a nearly 9-month high. Afterwards, with the deterioration of macro data, the market turned sharply downwards, and near the end of the month, the WTI fell below $80. Under the combined effect of OPEC+production control and weak economic data in oil producing countries, the supply-demand game intensifies, and the market shifts into a narrow range of fluctuations.

On the upstream side, the pure benzene market increased by 4.45% in August, and as of August 30th, the price of pure benzene was around 7778 yuan/ton. In August, hydrogenated benzene followed the rise of the pure benzene market, increasing by 6.09%. As of August 30th, the price of pure benzene was around 7833 yuan/ton. In August, the market price of n-butane increased from 4700 yuan/ton to 5700 yuan/ton, and dropped to the beginning level at the end of the month. As of August 30th, the price in Shandong was around 4700 yuan/ton.

Business Society’s maleic anhydride product analysts believe that the recent surge in raw material n-butane has led to a significant decline, limited cost support for maleic anhydride, and a decrease in the prices of main factories and distributors. Downstream pursuit of high prices is cautious, and replenishment is mainly based on demand procurement. Maleic anhydride manufacturers have limited new orders. It is expected that there will still be a downward trend in maleic anhydride in the near future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic ethanol market rose in a narrow range in August. From August 1st to 29th, the average price of domestic ethanol producers increased from 6637 yuan/ton to 6812 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 2.64% during the cycle and a year-on-year increase of 2.44%.

At the beginning of the month, many manufacturers have gradually resumed production, with stable prices being the main focus. Traders are mostly in a wait-and-see mood, and the market situation has been sorted out and running.

In mid month, there were slight differences between regions in the domestic ethanol market, with different periods of increase. Henan region had more orders, inventory decreased, and companies had maintenance plans. Under the influence of positive factors such as a significant increase in corn prices, prices rose significantly. Large factories in Northeast Heilongjiang have limited shipments of food, resulting in a slight increase in prices.

In the second half of this month, there were slight regional differences in the domestic ethanol market, with high raw material prices and limited support from ethanol in stock. As a result, the domestic ethanol market prices remained firm.

In terms of cost, as we enter August, the domestic corn market is at a high level of consolidation. It will still take some time for the new season corn to go public. The high temperature and rainy weather in China have affected transportation, resulting in a decrease in policy investment. There are gradually fewer high-quality grain sources available for circulation, and trading entities are reluctant to sell at high prices. Feed demand is still weak, and the expectation of a high yield of the new season corn is relatively sufficient. There is a long short game. In the middle of the year, the impact of rainfall caused by the typhoon gradually eased in the production and sales areas, and the arrival volume of corn in ports and deep processing areas continued to increase. After effectively replenishing the corn inventory of ports and deep processing enterprises, the corn purchase price was lowered, causing high volatility in the domestic corn market. The cost side of ethanol is a favorable factor.

In the first ten days of the month, the maintenance of domestic ethanol supply increased: Zhaodong Edible resumed around August 15th, but production was limited; The 500000 ton unit in Fukang, Jilin was shut down on August 10th. Longhe and Romet in East China have plans to start production after the raw materials arrive at the port in the middle of the year. Henan’s construction has decreased, and Houyuan has maintenance plans in early August. As of the end of August, the Fukang device has been shut down, and the Tianyu device has resumed in mid August; Zhaodong Food resumed around August 15th, but production was limited. Longhe and Romet have plans to start production after the raw materials arrive at the port in the middle of the year. Henan Houyuan Device Storage and Maintenance Plan. The ethanol supply is mixed.

On the demand side, downstream chemical companies are just in need of procurement, and large ethyl acetate factories are gradually returning to full capacity. At the end of August, some factories in East China have maintenance plans. The short-term demand for ethanol is mixed.

In the future market forecast, cost and supply support are high, and demand is expected to break through. Ethanol analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic ethanol market may experience strong fluctuations in the short term.

The price of plasticizer DOTP increased significantly in August

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of August 28th, the price of DOTP was 12260 yuan/ton, an increase of 15.01% compared to August 1st, which was 10660 yuan/ton. June August is the traditional off-season for plasticizers, but this year’s off-season is not dull. Since mid June, the price of DOTP has bottomed out and rebounded. In August, the price of plasticizer DOTP has significantly increased, reaching a new high for the year.

The price of isooctanol continued to rise sharply in August

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of isooctanol on August 28th was 12200 yuan/ton, an increase of 22.20% compared to the price of 9983.33 yuan/ton on August 1st. The planned production of domestic isooctanol units and unexpected vehicle pick-up have led to a tight supply of isooctanol, low inventory of isooctanol, and an upward shift in market focus. In August, the price of isooctanol continued to skyrocket. The price of isooctanol has skyrocketed, and the cost of plasticizer DOP raw materials has increased. As the price of isooctanol has risen to a high level, buying sentiment towards pursuing higher prices has become cautious. With the restart of the isooctanol plant, the supply expectation of the isooctanol market is loose, and the sustained rise of isooctanol in the future is limited in support.

PTA prices fell first and then rose in August

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the PTA price on August 28th was 6081.36 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.75% compared to the PTA price on August 1st, which was 6036.36 yuan/ton. Recently, the supply and demand contradiction has eased after PTA suppliers released maintenance plans, while international crude oil futures prices have fallen, easing the cost pressure on PTA. In the future, the supply and demand expectations for PTA in September are expected to decrease, and the accumulation of PTA may not be as expected. However, as the terminal consumes pre inventory and is not in a hurry to purchase, there is still upward pressure on PTA prices in the short term. The cost of raw materials for plasticizer DOTP is expected to increase in September, and there is still momentum for the price increase of plasticizer DOTP in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of August 28th, the price increases of various products in the plastic sector compared to July 1st, from high to low, are PVC (12.48%), PP (wire drawing) (7.28%), and LLDPE (4.89%). Since July, as the plastic industry approaches the traditional peak season, the market has started to heat up, and various products in the plastic sector have seen a rise, with plastic futures rising at the same time. In the two months since July, the plastic industry has been dominated by Lido. On the macro level, inflation in the United States has cooled beyond expectations, the necessity for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates has decreased, and concerns about economic recession have eased. In terms of cost, the seasonal peak demand from refineries and OPEC production cuts in oil producing countries have led to a strengthening of international crude oil prices. At the same time, downstream plastic enterprises are gradually increasing their stocking, improving consumption follow-up, and enhancing market momentum. Under the dual support of rebounding consumption and high costs, the prices of plastic futures and three materials have fluctuated and risen.

Future expectations

Analysts from Business Society’s plasticizer product data believe that although August is the traditional off-season for plasticizers, the upstream and downstream of the plasticizer industry chain are both rising against the trend. In terms of raw materials, in August, the production of isooctanol was at a low level, and the supply of isooctanol was insufficient. The price of isooctanol continued to rise sharply, alleviating the supply-demand contradiction of PTA and weakening the support for PTA increase. However, the overall cost of DOTP raw materials for plasticizer products increased significantly; The downstream plastic futures market has rebounded, and the demand for plasticizers has rebounded; The operating rate of plasticizer enterprises is low, and the supply of plasticizers is tight. In the future, as the peak season approaches, the demand for plasticizers is expected to rebound. However, in September, upstream and downstream enterprises of plasticizers are expected to resume construction, and the supply of raw materials such as isooctanol and plasticizer DOTP is expected to increase. Both supply and demand are expected to increase, and the support for the rise of plasticizers is weakened; The supply of isooctanol has increased, the support for the rise of isooctanol has weakened, and the expected high price of raw material isooctanol has fallen; Downstream customers have a low acceptance of high prices. As the supply of plasticizers increases, the downward pressure on plasticizers increases. It is expected that the price of plasticizer DOTP will fall back from a high point in the future.

According to data monitored by Business Society, as of August 25th, the average price of domestic industrial grade premium cyclohexane was 7066.67 yuan/ton, which is stable compared to the same period last week. The overall market supply and demand are balanced, and shipments are currently slow.

This week, the market price of cyclohexane has been operating in a narrow range, with the mainstream price around 7066.67 yuan/ton. Compared to the same period last week, the price has remained stable, with mainstream manufacturers maintaining a quotation range of around 7000 yuan/ton and a stable operating rate. Downstream demand procurement is the main focus, and the negotiation atmosphere is flat.

Chemical Index: On August 24th, the chemical index reached 900 points, an increase of 4 points from yesterday, a decrease of 35.71% from the highest point of 1400 points in the cycle (2021-10-23), and a 50.50% increase from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

Cyclohexane analysts from Business Society believe that in the short term, the stable operation of the cyclohexane market is the main trend, with a narrow range leaning towards strong operation.