This week (11.13-11.21), the nitrile rubber market saw a narrow consolidation. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of November 21, the price of nitrile rubber was 14950 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.17% from last Monday’s 14925 yuan/ton. The price of raw material butadiene has stabilized at a high level, while the price of acrylonitrile has slightly increased, while the cost of nitrile rubber has slightly increased; Recently, low level inquiries for downstream construction have been light, and there have been few market transactions. The overall market price of nitrile rubber has remained stable with little movement.

This week (11.13-11.21), the price of raw material butadiene has stabilized at a high level, while the price of acrylonitrile has slightly increased, and the cost of nitrile rubber has slightly increased. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of November 21, the price of butadiene was at 9541 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.05% from last Monday’s 9546 yuan/ton; As of November 21st, the price of acrylonitrile was 10062 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.26% from last Monday’s 9937 yuan/ton.

This week (11.13-11.21), there was a slight fluctuation in the construction of domestic nitrile rubber plants.

The downstream rubber pipe construction of domestic nitrile rubber remains at a low level of around 60%, and inquiries about nitrile rubber are cautious. The trading atmosphere on the market is slightly stagnant, and the nitrile rubber market is weakening.

Future forecast: Business Society nitrile analysts believe that the current supply of nitrile rubber is relatively sufficient, and downstream inquiries are light. It is expected that the nitrile rubber market will be weak and consolidate in the short term.

Recent trends in sulfuric acid prices

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic sulfuric acid market prices have significantly increased this week, with sulfuric acid prices rising from 2700.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 298.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 10.37%, and a year-on-year decrease of 13.87% over the weekend.

Upstream market slightly increased, while downstream procurement enthusiasm is good

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream domestic sulfuric acid manufacturers have significantly increased this week, with average inventory levels among manufacturers.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industry chains, the upstream sulfur market has slightly increased, with sulfur prices rising from 1003.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 1023.33 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 1.99%, and a year-on-year decrease of 24.94% over the weekend. The upstream market has slightly increased, with good cost support. The downstream monoammonium phosphate market has stabilized at a high level, with a market price of 3466.67 yuan/ton. Over the weekend, the price increased by 10.93% year-on-year. The downstream titanium dioxide market has stabilized at a high level, with a market price of 17266.67 yuan/ton. Over the weekend, the price increased by 8.37% year-on-year. The downstream market is consolidating at a high level, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is good.

Small fluctuations and gains in the future market

In late November, the domestic sulfuric acid market may experience slight fluctuations and gains. The downstream monoammonium phosphate market has stabilized at a high level, and downstream customers have increased their enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid. The upstream sulfur market has slightly increased, with good cost support. Under the contradiction between supply and demand, the product trend is upward. Business Society sulfuric acid analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic sulfuric acid market is mainly affected by various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials, and the sulfuric acid market price may fluctuate slightly.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, the spot price of PVC carbide SG5 fell first and then rose this week. At the beginning of the week, the average domestic PVC price was 5856 yuan/ton, and the average weekend price was 5832 yuan/ton. The price fell by 0.41% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the domestic spot market price of PVC fell first and then rose. Overall, the price has slightly decreased. At present, the spot market is not good, and the trading situation is average. How many manufacturers’ quotations are mainly stable. Downstream just needs to pick up the goods, but the actual transaction is still cautious. As of now, the quotation range for PVC SG5 carbide materials in China is mostly around 5650-5920 yuan/ton.

In terms of crude oil, on November 16th, international crude oil futures plummeted. The settlement price of the main contract for US WTI crude oil futures was $72.90 per barrel, a decrease of $3.76 or 4.9%. The settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was 77.42 yuan/barrel, a decrease of 3.76 US dollars or 4.6%. The US crude oil inventory has significantly increased, and more importantly, weak economic data has exacerbated concerns about the future demand outlook.

In terms of calcium carbide, according to data monitored by the Business Society, the prices of calcium carbide manufacturers have temporarily stabilized this week, with an average domestic price of 2900 yuan/ton. Some orchid charcoal enterprises have lowered their orchid charcoal quotations, resulting in insufficient cost support. The downstream PVC market has stabilized at a low level, and the demand for calcium carbide is average.

3、 Future Market Forecast

PVC analysts from Business Society believe that the PVC spot market has had average trading volume this week. Upstream calcium carbide is temporarily stabilized and sorted, with average support. Downstream real estate enterprises have poor demand, and the market has weak demand for PVC spot goods. In addition, the downward trend of PVC futures on Friday has dampened confidence in the spot market. It is expected that the PVC market will be weak in the short term and closely monitor changes in the news.

Recent price consolidation of plasticizers

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the prices of plasticizers have been fluctuating and consolidating in the past month, with prices of DOP and DOTP fluctuating and consolidating around 11400 yuan/ton; The DBP price has rapidly dropped from 10050 yuan/ton on October 16th to around 9500 yuan/ton at the end of October. In November, the DBP price fluctuated and adjusted around 9500 yuan/ton. The game between cost and supply and demand continues, and the prices of plasticizer products fluctuate and consolidate.

Cost determines the profit margin of plasticizers

According to the market analysis system of the Business Society, the price of isooctanol has rapidly declined from 12500 yuan/ton on November 16 to 11320 yuan/ton on November 2, resulting in a significant decrease in the cost of plasticizers; Afterwards, in November, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and consolidated, while in October, the price of propylene fluctuated and fell, resulting in a decrease in the cost of isooctanol. Downstream plasticizer enterprises were operating under capacity, resulting in poor demand for isooctanol. In October, the price of isooctanol significantly decreased, resulting in a decrease in plasticizer costs and an increase in the profitability of plasticizer enterprises. In November, the price of propylene first rose and then fell, and the propylene market improved. The cost of isooctanol increased, and the operating load of isooctanol enterprises increased. The supply of isooctanol increased, and downstream demand for isooctanol was just in demand. The price of isooctanol was relatively strong, and the profits of plasticizer enterprises stabilized, with a slight decline.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of phthalic anhydride has continued to decline since October 16th. As of November 16th, the quotation for neighboring phthalic anhydride was 7487.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.6% compared to the 8375 yuan/ton price of phthalic anhydride on October 16th. The cost of plasticizers has decreased, and the profit space for plasticizers has increased. The price of n-butanol plummeted by 13.36% from October 16th to the end of October; The price of n-butanol fluctuated and consolidated in November. In the second half of October, the prices of phthalic anhydride and n-butanol significantly decreased, and the cost of plasticizer DBP decreased. In October, DBP prices rapidly declined, but the decline rate of DBP was significantly slower than that of n-butanol, and the profit of plasticizer DBP increased. In November, n-butanol prices fluctuated and consolidated, DBP costs stabilized, DBP downward pressure weakened, and DBP gross profit levels stabilized.

Profitability affects the operating rate of enterprises

In early October, the profit margin of the plasticizer market narrowed, and the capacity utilization rate of plasticizer enterprises decreased from 57% to 40%. In October, the production lines of plasticizers were reduced in production, such as Ningbo Aijing, Xinnuolixing, and Shandong Haiyou plants, while Shandong Lanfan, Aojia Yongli, and Zhenjiang Liancheng had production reductions. On October 23rd, the capacity utilization rate decreased to 40%. The tightening of supply has led to spot queues in local markets such as Shandong and Jiangsu, and a sharp drop in raw material prices. The profitability of the plasticizer market is gradually improving in the latter half of the year. In November, the production capacity utilization rate gradually rebounded, and Xinnuo Lixing, Shandong Haiyou, and Dongying Yimeide units gradually resumed production. The production capacity utilization rate rebounded to over 60%, and the plasticizer production capacity utilization rate remained within the range of 60-64%. Profits increased, and the operating rate of plasticizer enterprises was at a high level within the year. The supply of plasticizers increased, and the pressure on plasticizer prices to decline increased.

Future expectations

Analysts from Business Society’s plasticizer product data believe that since the second half of October, the plasticizer industry chain has been fluctuating and consolidating. In the second half of October, raw material prices significantly decreased, plasticizer costs decreased, and plasticizer prices fluctuated and fell. As the cost of plasticizers decreases, the profits of plasticizer enterprises increase, and the demand for raw materials increases. The prices of raw materials stop falling and consolidate, while plasticizer enterprises increase in production and supply. In the market where downstream demand continues to be weak, the supply of plasticizers increases, and the downward pressure on plasticizers increases. The weak game between cost support and supply, increase, and demand continues, and the plasticizer industry chain market fluctuated and consolidated in November.

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of the Business Society, as of November 15th, the price of PET water bottles has been in a weak trend, with a narrow downward trend. The current average price is 7110.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.28% compared to the same period last week. The market supply and demand are balanced, and the mainstream price is currently around 7100 yuan/ton.

This week, the domestic PET prices were weak, with a 0.28% decrease compared to the same period last week. Currently, the focus of negotiations is relatively low, with the mainstream price around 7200 yuan/ton. Downstream restocking is on demand, and the purchasing atmosphere is average. Manufacturers mainly offer discounts and take orders, while upstream costs lack support.

Rubber and plastic commodity index: On November 13, the rubber and plastic index was 675 points, a decrease of 1 point from yesterday, a decrease of 36.32% from the highest point in the cycle of 1060 points (2012-03-14), and an increase of 27.84% from the lowest point of 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

PET analysts from Business Society believe that the PET market is expected to operate in a narrow and weak range in the short term, with prices remaining around 7200 yuan/ton.