This week, the lead market (8.11-8.18) fluctuated and rose, with the average price in the domestic market at 15780 yuan/ton at the beginning of last week and 15940 yuan/ton at the beginning of this week, up 1.01%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-pillar indicates the range of rise and fall, and the recent market trend is relatively strong, with the lead ingot market rising for six consecutive weeks.

The futures market fluctuated and rose this week, and the Shanghai lead continued its high volatility trend. Fundamentally speaking, the production of electrolytic lead increased in July, and the start of construction in August showed little change compared to July. Therefore, the supply of primary lead remained incremental in August. In terms of recycled lead, there have been recent enterprise maintenance but also resumption of production, so the change in production is not significant. In terms of demand, the weather has turned hot, and downstream demand has slightly improved compared to the previous period. Recently, overall battery inventory has declined, and the operating rate of battery companies has also slightly increased, leading to a rebound in purchasing enthusiasm. Overall, the supply and demand of the lead ingot market have increased, and the downstream peak season has begun to show signs. The market’s expectations for the future market have improved, and market prices have steadily increased. It is expected that the lead ingot market will operate in a stable, medium to strong manner in the short term.

On August 18th, the base metal index was 1196 points, an increase of 11 points from yesterday, a decrease of 25.99% from the highest point of 1616 points in the cycle (2022-03-09), and an increase of 86.29% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, there were a total of 17 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that rose month on month on the commodity price rise and fall list in the 33rd week of 2023 (8.14-8.18), with antimony (2.61%), nickel (1.28%), and lead (1.21%) ranking among the top three commodities. There are three products that have decreased compared to the previous month, with cobalt (-2.30%), tin (-1.84%), and zinc (-1.22%) ranking among the top three products. This week’s average increase or decrease was 0.42%.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of August 15th, the average price quoted by domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid enterprises was 3875.00 yuan/ton, which is unchanged compared to last Friday (August 11th) and an increase of 2.88% compared to the same period last year.

Recently, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market has continued to operate steadily, with the focus of market negotiations at around 3900 yuan/ton, without significant fluctuations. Recently, the trend of raw material sulfuric acid has risen, while the market for raw material methanol has fluctuated slightly. The cost support has increased, and the enthusiasm for downstream inquiries and procurement is still good. The main focus of market negotiations is on stability, with the continuation of transactions and demand.

Business Society formic acid analysts believe that the current cost side has increased, and downstream procurement is mainly based on demand. The market has a wait-and-see mentality, and it is expected that the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market will operate steadily in the short term. More attention should be paid to market news guidance.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic BDO market is slowly rising. From August 8th to 15th, the average price of domestic BDO increased from 11257 yuan/ton to 11414 yuan/ton, with a weekly price increase of 1.44%, a month on month increase of 1.52%, and a year-on-year increase of 14.14%. At present, the industry’s capacity utilization rate is low, the market’s spot supply is tight, production enterprises are reluctant to sell, and online bidding is on the high side to support the market. Downstream rigid demand procurement is the main focus, and under cost pressure, it tends to be cautious, suppressing market growth.

On the supply side, BDO’s supply side is mixed.

On the cost side, raw material calcium carbide: The manufacturer’s inventory is average, and the upstream blue charcoal market is consolidating at a low level, while the downstream PVC market is consolidating at a high level. The factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region has slightly increased. On August 15th, the benchmark price of calcium carbide in Shangshang Society was 3033.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.82% compared to the beginning of this month (2950.00 yuan/ton). In terms of methanol, costs and demand are improving, and the methanol market is experiencing high volatility. As of 15:00 on August 15th, the domestic methanol Taicang price is 2365 yuan/ton. The recent consolidation and operation of calcium carbide market and slight improvement in methanol market are expected to lead to a breakthrough in BDO cost.

On the demand side, the follow-up of terminal demand is relatively average, suppressing the enthusiasm of downstream industries to start construction. At the same time, some downstream companies such as PBT and GBL have raised prices in response to fluctuations in raw materials, but the industry still faces losses and strong resistance to high prices. Downstream continuation of contract follow-up, spot sporadic small order procurement. Short term bearish factors on the demand side of BDO.

In the future market forecast, there is still some support on the supply side, but the downstream end has limited ability to accept high prices. Contract orders are mainly followed up, while spot orders are generally followed up, or market trends may be suppressed. BDO analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic BDO market situation will be mainly on a wait-and-see basis.

Aluminum fluoride prices stabilized this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of August 14th, the domestic quotation for aluminum fluoride was 9575 yuan/ton, which has stabilized compared to the 9575 yuan/ton price of aluminum fluoride on August 4th last weekend. The prices of raw materials have stabilized, and the cost of aluminum fluoride has stabilized. This week, the price of aluminum fluoride has weakened and stabilized.

The price of raw material hydrofluoric acid is weak and stabilizing

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of August 14th, the price of hydrofluoric acid was 9483.33 yuan/ton, which has stabilized compared to the price of 9483.33 yuan/ton on August 4th last weekend. The price of raw material fluorite is weak and stable, and the cost support for hydrofluoric acid is weak; The losses of hydrofluoric acid enterprises still exist. Recently, some hydrofluoric acid units have shut down, the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid has been tight, the demand for hydrofluoric acid is weak during the off-season of refrigerants, and the order situation of hydrofluoric acid manufacturers is weak. As a result, the hydrofluoric acid market remains sluggish, and the price of hydrofluoric acid is weak and temporarily stable this week. The cost is temporarily stable, and the price of aluminum fluoride is stabilizing.

Market Overview and Forecast

Analysts from the fluoride aluminum industry at Business Society believe that the price of hydrofluoric acid is weak and stabilizing this week, and the cost of raw materials for fluoride aluminum is temporarily stable. In the future, costs are stabilizing and demand is weak. There is still insufficient support for the rise of aluminum fluoride and downward pressure. It is expected that the price of aluminum fluoride will stabilize in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the market for polyaluminum chloride remained stable in early August, with the main market price for solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride in China reporting around 1718 yuan/ton. The production of water treatment enterprises in China’s main production areas is normal, with sufficient market inventory. Downstream procurement is based on demand, and in addition, weather disasters in the early days have affected the circulation of the industrial chain, making it difficult to make actual transactions; The price of raw material hydrochloric acid has changed relatively little this month, while the market for polyaluminum chloride has remained relatively unchanged.

Raw material hydrochloric acid: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price remained stable and slightly increased in early August, with prices ranging from 173-174 yuan/ton. The upstream liquid chlorine market has recently seen a slight increase, with good cost support; Domestic hydrochloric acid manufacturers have average inventory; The downstream ammonium chloride market price has significantly increased, providing some support for the hydrochloric acid market., Increased willingness to purchase downstream. Analysts from Business Society believe that the recent slight fluctuations and gains in the hydrochloric acid market are the main trend.

Liquefied natural gas for production. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, in early August, the domestic liquefied natural gas prices first fell and then rose, showing a “V” shaped trend: on August 1st, the average price of liquefied natural gas in China was 3630 yuan/ton, slightly dropping to 3594 yuan/ton on the 4th, and then rising again to around 3634 yuan/ton. The overall upward trend this week was only 0.11%. Affected by the reduction of raw gas auction price, the cost end support weakened at the beginning of the month and the market supply exceeded demand. Due to the impact of rainstorm, the transportation in some areas was not smooth, and there were many negative factors in the market, so the price fell slightly; Afterwards, the price of raw gas slightly increased, and some liquid factories in certain regions underwent maintenance. Downstream restocking willingness increased, resulting in a slight increase in liquid prices. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic liquefied natural gas prices will fluctuate and operate in a narrow range.

Future forecast: In early August, there will be little change in raw material prices, and the impact of the fuel liquefied natural gas market will also be small. The cost of polymeric aluminum chloride will also have a small change. On the supply side, China’s polyaluminum chloride manufacturers produce normally and have sufficient inventory; However, there has been no significant improvement on the demand side and the delivery process has slowed down. Analysis suggests that the market outlook for polyaluminum chloride will remain stable with minor fluctuations as a supplement.