According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from March 18th to 22nd, the average price of cyclohexanone in the domestic market dropped from 9768 yuan/ton to 9693 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.77% during the cycle, a month on month decrease of 3.54%, and a year-on-year increase of 2.40%. The domestic cyclohexanone market is operating weakly, with the raw material pure benzene rising first and then falling in recent times. The cost support has weakened from strong to weak, and downstream chemical fibers are purchased on demand. The spot supply of cyclohexanone in the market is stable and abundant, and downstream high prices are generally following suit. High priced shipments are hindered, and the focus of transactions has declined.

On the cost side, raw material pure benzene: The domestic production of pure benzene has slightly increased, and downstream inventory of essential raw materials is low. Demand based delivery is stable, and the price of pure benzene fluctuates and falls after a high opening. As of March 22, the benchmark price of pure benzene for Shengyishe is 8540.50 yuan/ton. In the cost composition of the traditional cyclohexanone process route, pure benzene accounts for 53%. The market trend of pure benzene directly affects the price trend of cyclohexanone, and the short-term cost of cyclohexanone is influenced by favorable factors.

On the supply side, according to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic production capacity of cyclohexanone is about 7.14 million tons, and the current operating load is about 60%, which is at a relatively low level. The average weekly operating load of cyclohexanone is 69.80%, with a weekly production of 106900 tons, an increase from the previous cycle. The supply of cyclohexanone is affected by bearish factors.

On the demand side, cyclohexanone units are mainly equipped with downstream production of caprolactam, which is one of the main downstream sources of cyclohexanone. The caprolactam market is running weakly, with abundant supply of caprolactam in recent times, which has constrained market confidence. In addition, upstream pure benzene prices have fallen, resulting in empty costs and supply. The caprolactam market continues to weaken. The demand side for cyclohexanone is temporarily bearish.

In the future market forecast, pure benzene will operate in a volatile manner, with relatively stable cost support. Downstream demand is high with on-demand procurement, and the market spot supply is stable and abundant. Business Society cyclohexanone analysts predict that the domestic cyclohexanone market will mainly consolidate in the short term.

According to data monitoring by Business Society, as of March 21, 2023, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate ore in China was around 1062 yuan/ton, which was basically unchanged from March 17. Compared with March 1 (reference price of 1052 yuan/ton of phosphate ore), the basic price increased by 10 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.95%.

From the monitoring chart of Business Society data, it can be seen that in early March, the overall domestic phosphate ore market saw a slight increase and remained stable. Entering this week, the phosphate ore market has shown a fluctuating trend of ups and downs. At the beginning of the week, the overall price of phosphate ore in the Yunnan region of China increased, with some mining companies that had previously quoted lower prices raising the price of 30 grade phosphate ore by about 20 yuan/ton. Later, during the mid week period, some mining companies in Guizhou region also lowered the prices of mid to high end grade phosphate ore narrowly based on their own shipments, with a reduction of about 10-30 yuan per ton. The phosphate ore market in other regions mainly continues to consolidate and operate. As of March 21st, the domestic market price of 30 grade phosphate ore is around 1000-1100 yuan/ton. The specific price may vary depending on factors such as the original ore specifications and powder to block ratio, and the specific price needs to be negotiated based on actual orders.

Prediction of future market for phosphate ore

At present, the overall trading atmosphere in the domestic phosphate ore market is mild and quiet, with normal downstream inquiries. The market continues to wait for demand to be released, and the current supply and demand transmission is still good. According to the phosphate ore data analyst from Business Society, in the short term, the domestic phosphate ore market will mainly adjust slightly, and the specific trend will need to pay more attention to the impact of factors such as demand and downstream shipment. The specific trend still needs to pay more attention to the impact of factors such as demand and downstream shipments.

Market price trend chart of resorcinol

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of March 20th, the average market price of resorcinol was 44500 yuan/ton, which is the same as last week.

Pure benzene: The price of pure benzene in China has slightly increased this week. On March 20th, the price of pure benzene was 8573.17 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.96% from last week and 17.77% from the same period last year. The East China market is in talks of a decline, with mixed ups and downs. There are few spot transactions and sufficient downstream inventory, creating a wait-and-see atmosphere.

Nitric acid: The domestic price of nitric acid has slightly decreased this week. On March 20th, the price of nitric acid was 1790 yuan/ton, and on March 13th, it was 1833 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.32% from last week and 26.78% from the same period last year. At present, the market continues to be weak, and manufacturers are shipping according to the market.

M-phenylenediamine: The domestic price of m-phenylenediamine remained stable this week. On March 20th, the price of phenylenediamine was 37166.67 yuan/ton. The performance of the raw material market is strong, while the atmosphere in the downstream dye and pesticide intermediate markets is calm.

This week, the trading atmosphere in the resorcinol market was relatively light, with limited improvement in downstream rubber industry operating rates. The atmosphere in the dye and pesticide intermediate market was calm. It is expected that the market for resorcinol will remain stable.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream market in China dropped from 9000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 8776.67 yuan/ton over the weekend, a decrease of 2.59%, and the weekend price increased by 19.55% year-on-year.

2、 Market analysis

From the supply side perspective, mainstream manufacturers of isobutyraldehyde have seen a slight decline in their quotations this week, resulting in low inventory.

The propylene market has slightly declined this week, with prices dropping from 6992.6 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 6948.60 yuan/ton over the weekend, a decrease of 0.63%, and a year-on-year decrease of 4.82% over the weekend. At the beginning of the week, propylene prices saw a slight decline due to the dual negative impact of weak crude oil and weak demand.

From the perspective of downstream demand, the market situation of new pentanediol has slightly declined, with the market price dropping from 10666.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 10633.33 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 0.31%, and the weekend price dropping by 1.84% year-on-year. The market situation of neopentyl glycol has slightly declined, with high enterprise production and average downstream demand, which has a negative impact on isobutyraldehyde.

3、 Future prospects

In late March, the trend of isobutyraldehyde market may fluctuate and decline. The upstream propylene market has experienced a slight decline, with insufficient cost support. The downstream market for new pentanediol has also experienced a slight decline, leading to high levels of enterprise production and weakened downstream procurement enthusiasm. Business Society’s isobutyraldehyde analyst believes that in the short term, the isobutyraldehyde market may experience slight fluctuations and declines due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from March 11th to 15th, the price of asphalt in Shandong Province increased from 3569 yuan/ton to 3592 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.64%, a month on month decrease of 0.24%, and a year-on-year decrease of 7.57%. The current demand for asphalt is relatively scarce, and the atmosphere for low-priced spot trading is still acceptable, while the demand for high prices is average. The market recovery is slow, and the driving force for price increases is insufficient. The overall performance of asphalt is weak.

On the supply side, in terms of the main production enterprises, Xinjiang Meihuite has stabilized the production of asphalt and Yunnan Petrochemical has stabilized the production, driving up the utilization rate of refinery capacity in the area. The comprehensive operating rate of the asphalt industry has increased compared to the previous month, and there is a negative impact on the supply side.

On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: The US EIA inventory data is positive, coupled with Ukraine’s attack on Russian refineries, geopolitical tensions have pushed up the risk premium of crude oil. As of March 14th, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures main contract was reported at $85.42 per barrel, an increase of $1.39 or 1.7%.

On the demand side, the demand for asphalt market varies slightly in different regions. In the northern region, the demand for essential goods is slowly recovering, but actual demand is weak. In the southern region, some rainy and cloudy weather may hinder essential goods, but actual essential goods are still relatively flat, with a small amount of inbound demand being the main demand. The demand side of the asphalt market is bearish.

As of the close of March 15th, the petroleum asphalt futures market has risen. The main asphalt contract 2406 opened at 2541 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2571 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2535 yuan/ton. It closed at 2565 yuan/ton at the end of the day, up 43% or 1.70% from the previous trading day’s settlement, with a trading volume of 1086545 lots and a holding volume of 934243 lots, and a daily increase of 39413.

In the future market forecast, although the significant increase in international crude oil has provided significant support for refinery costs, it is not strong enough to stimulate the market in the current situation of weak supply and demand. Business Society asphalt analysts predict that the domestic asphalt market will be weak in the short term, with consolidation being the main trend.