Price trend

According to the bulk ranking data from Shengyi Society, the domestic PC market fluctuated narrowly in October, with some spot prices of certain brands falling below pre holiday levels. As of October 31st, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC is around 16000 yuan/ton, with a price fluctuation of -0.62% compared to early October.

Cause analysis

On the supply side: In October, the overall operating rate of domestic PCs showed limited changes. As of the 31st, the industry average operating rate fluctuated from 79% at the beginning of the month to around 81%. The weekly production of PC remains at a super high level of over 60000 tons in the medium and long term, with abundant on-site supply and a profound supply-demand mismatch pattern. The loose supply pattern in October has not changed, and it is difficult to see good news on the supply side. Manufacturers are unable to raise prices, and factory pricing is under pressure to be lowered. At the same time, the future maintenance plan is sparse, and the market supply side has a serious drag on PC prices.

In terms of raw materials, it can be seen from the above chart that the domestic price of bisphenol A significantly decreased in October. The direct raw materials of bisphenol A, phenol and acetone, fell in the first half of the month, but stabilized at the end of the month and rebounded narrowly. The downstream production changes of the two main forces are limited, coupled with insufficient stocking heat, the profit situation of enterprises has weakened, and the consumption of bisphenol A is not good. In addition, at the beginning of the month, the load of the bisphenol A industry returned to be relatively high, and the supply of goods increased in the middle of the month. Overall, bisphenol A has weak support for PC costs.

In terms of demand, the PC consumption pattern has not shown any improvement in the medium to long term, and the overall trend has been relatively weak compared to the previous period. Last month, the traditional peak season “Golden September” terminal consumption situation has not yet unfolded, and the logic of weak rigid demand procurement continues until the end of October. The bidding price of Zhejiang Petrochemical has fallen at a low level, and the wait-and-see sentiment of the industry is biased. Buyers have strong resistance to high priced goods, and the circulation of goods on site is slow. The load recovery of downstream enterprises is not significant, and factories are taking goods to maintain production. At this point, the traditional peak season for PC sales this year has come to an end, and the demand side is unable to provide strong support for spot prices.

Future forecast

The PC market rose in early October due to macroeconomic factors such as improved sentiment in the commodity market, and then returned to fundamental guidance, with gains giving up. The upstream bisphenol A market fell sharply, and although there were signs of a halt at the end of the month, the overall cost support for PC was weak. The load of domestic aggregation plants continues to be high, and the supply remains high. Currently, the center of gravity of domestic PC prices has fallen below early October. Downstream peak season consumption has not been realized, and weak rigid demand stocking is difficult to drive the market. The flow of market goods is poor, and the mismatch between supply and demand is profound. Although PC prices have fallen to the low point range of the year, industry benefits are difficult to materialize. Therefore, Shengyi Society predicts that the future PC market may face the risk of a downward trend.

Since October, the butadiene rubber market has been weak and declining. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of October 31, the butadiene rubber market price in East China was 15580 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.52% from 16490 yuan/ton at the beginning of October. The price of raw material butadiene has significantly decreased, and the cost center of butadiene rubber has dropped significantly; The overall production of butadiene rubber remains at a low level; Downstream tire production remains stable with slight fluctuations, providing strong support for the demand for butadiene rubber. Within the month, the supply price of butadiene rubber has gradually decreased, and as of October 31st, the mainstream price of butadiene rubber is between 15450 and 15650 yuan/ton.

Since October, the price of butadiene has significantly decreased, and the cost center of butadiene rubber has shifted downwards. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 31st, the price of butadiene was 12325 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.04% from 13700 yuan/ton at the beginning of October.

In October, the domestic butadiene rubber plant started operating at a low level, and as of the end of the month, the production rate was around 5.90%. The supply pressure of butadiene rubber is not high.

Demand side: Since October, downstream tire production has remained stable with slight fluctuations, and demand is supported by the rigid demand of the butadiene rubber market. As of October 25th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 7.9%; The operating load of all steel tires in tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 5.9%.

Market forecast: From a fundamental perspective, analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the price of raw material butadiene will significantly decrease, leading to a decrease in the cost of butadiene rubber; Shunding rubber production remains at a low level, with little pressure on the supply side; The current downstream tire production is stable with slight fluctuations, and overall, the market for Shunding rubber may experience weak fluctuations in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China fell this week (10.25-10.30), with an average market price of 254500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 255190 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.27%.

Overall this week, news about tin mines in Myanmar has been frequent, and downstream purchasing sentiment is relatively cautious. After Yunxi resumed production, domestic supply resumed and social inventory increased for two consecutive weeks. Refineries are facing obstacles in their pricing mentality and their shipments are restricted. The buyer’s mentality in the spot market is cautious, and the overall demand growth is lower than expected. After causing a slight rebound in tin prices, there was a slight decline. But the terminal inquiry heat is good, traders have increased shipments, and the overall market atmosphere is better than last week.

The weakening of the supply and demand margin makes it difficult to provide support for tin prices, and there is significant resistance to price increases. It is expected that tin prices will adjust weakly between high and low regions.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average market price of baking soda on October 29th was around 1582 yuan/ton. On October 28th, the baking soda commodity index was 105.07, a decrease of 0.59 points from yesterday, a decrease of 55.45% from the highest point of 235.84 points during the cycle (2021-11-10), and an increase of 19.03% from the lowest point of 88.27 points on December 22, 2020. (Note: Cycle refers to September 1, 2020 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of baking soda is running steadily, and the company’s shipments are still acceptable. The price of baking soda in Henan region is consolidating and operating. The factory price of baking soda in Henan region is around 1400-1550 yuan/ton. Due to downstream demand for purchasing, it is expected that consolidation and operation will be the main focus in the later stage. Upstream: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of soda ash has been running weakly this week. The current average market price is 1584 yuan/ton.

Business Society analysts believe that the price of baking soda has been consolidating recently, with a general trend in the upstream raw material soda ash market. Downstream areas of baking soda, such as pharmaceuticals, textiles, and food, have been purchasing on demand recently, with average demand enthusiasm and a supply-demand game. Overall, it is expected that the price of baking soda will mainly fluctuate in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price trend of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid in China rose in October. As of October 28th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s hydrofluoric acid (export) was 12866.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.05% compared to the beginning of this month (12733.33 yuan/ton).

Raw material side: The fluorite market has slightly increased this week, and the price of raw material sulfuric acid has risen. The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. Upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and new mines will be added. Mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, national departments need to rectify fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. Although the rectification action is coming to an end, the affected area has not narrowed. The difficulty of fluorite mining operation has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises. The supply of fluorite sources is still tight, and the inventory of fluorite enterprises is low. With the supply shortage combined with the winter storage season, the atmosphere of factory price increases is strong. The cost of hydrofluoric acid is under pressure. According to the monitoring system of Shengyi Society, as of October 28th, the benchmark price of sulfuric acid in Shengyi Society was 417.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 23.70% compared to the beginning of this month (337.50 yuan/ton).

Demand side: Downstream refrigerant market maintenance is gradually recovering, and the quota stock in December is not high. It is expected that there will be insufficient production in the later stage, resulting in weakened demand.

Market forecast: Recently, there will be an increase in raw material prices, and the cost side will still be under pressure. The market supply is scarce, and it is expected that prices will rise significantly at the beginning of next month.