According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the price of caustic soda has slightly increased this week. At the beginning of the week, the average market price was 3262.5 yuan/ton, while on the weekend, the average market price was 3287.5 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.77% and a year-on-year decrease of 26.4%. Maintain an upward trend this week.

Upstream caustic soda

According to the Commodity Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of caustic soda has stabilized this week. At the beginning of the week, the average market price in Shandong was 737.4 yuan/ton, and on the weekend, the average market price in Shandong was 742 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.62% and a decrease of 31.3% compared to the same period last year.

Analysts from Business Society believe that the overall price of caustic soda has increased this week, and the supply of parking and maintenance services by manufacturers in the northwest region has decreased. However, the actual downstream demand has recently been purchased on demand, and the purchasing enthusiasm is average. The supply and demand game, whether the price can rise in the later stage depends on the market transaction situation. Overall, the short-term or sustained consolidation of the price of caustic soda depends on the downstream market demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic BDO market has rebounded and fluctuated. From July 27th to August 3rd, the average price of domestic BDO increased from 10942 yuan/ton to 11100 yuan/ton, with a weekly price increase of 1.44%, a month on month decrease of 2.63%, and a year-on-year decrease of 9.31%. Some production enterprises have undergone equipment maintenance, agent replacement, and load reduction, resulting in a decrease in the overall industry load and a certain positive supply side inventory. Factories and traders are reluctant to sell in stock, which is quite favorable for the market. Downstream industries maintain contract follow-up, limited and negotiated spot purchases, and limited gains.

On the supply side, the short-term BDO production and supply have decreased, and the BDO supply side is a positive factor.

On the cost side, raw material calcium carbide: The domestic calcium carbide market is mainly organized, while the upstream raw material blue charcoal prices are low and stable, and the cost support for calcium carbide is average. The downstream PVC market has slightly increased, and downstream demand is good. On August 3rd, the benchmark price of calcium carbide in Shangshang Society was 2950.00 yuan/ton. In terms of methanol, costs and demand are improving, and the methanol market is at a high level of consolidation. As of 15:00 on August 3rd, the domestic methanol Taicang price is 2330 yuan/ton. The recent consolidation and operation of calcium carbide market and slight improvement in methanol market are expected to lead to a breakthrough in BDO cost.

On the demand side, the downstream PTMEG industry is facing difficulties in increasing demand in the short term as the maintenance load of some devices decreases and other downstream operations remain at a low level. Short term bearish factors on the demand side of BDO.

In the future market forecast, there is no significant improvement in the downstream demand of the terminal, and some downstream industries are expected to experience a decline. BDO analysts from the Business Society predict that the domestic BDO market will be mainly on a wait-and-see basis.

According to data monitored by Business Society, the domestic carbon black market prices have slightly increased this week. On July 30th, the domestic carbon black N220 was quoted at 8733 yuan/ton, mainly due to a decline in raw material prices in the early stage, poor downstream shipments, weak demand side performance, and a gradual increase in bearish factors on the market.

Cost: In terms of raw materials, the market price of coal tar has begun to rise, most of the deep processed products are linked to the raw material Coal tar, and the supply side of Coal tar market is tight. This week, the market price of high-temperature Coal tar has risen. So far, the market price of Coal tar is 4240 yuan/ton.

Supply and demand side: Most carbon black enterprises maintain normal operating levels, and the overall operation of the domestic carbon black market is stable, with sufficient supply in the carbon black market.

In terms of demand: The overall demand of downstream tire enterprises is weak, still in the traditional sales off-season. Recently, there has been insufficient construction and construction work, and domestic demand has further weakened. Enterprises mainly need to purchase just now, and terminal demand continues to be weak. The overall demand in the future is not very optimistic.

Overall, the cost side support has increased, inventory levels are not high, and there has been no significant improvement in the demand side. It is expected that the carbon black market will be reorganized and operated in the short term.

The domestic bisphenol A market rose in a wide range, and the double raw materials rose in a wide range in the early stage. Under the pressure of bisphenol A cost, the factory concentrated on raising the listing price, and the vendor was in a positive mood to support the price. On July 31st, the mainstream prices in East China were negotiated at 10650-10800 yuan/ton

On July 31st, the quotation situation of bisphenol A in the mainstream domestic market:

Region/ Quotation/ Daily fluctuations

East China/ 10750./200

Shandong region/ 10700./200

The initial raw material phenol/acetone fluctuated higher, with strong cost support. Yesterday, the raw material market fell, but cost pressure still exists. As of 31, the negotiated price of phenol market in East China was 8250 yuan/ton, and the market price of acetone in East China was 6900 yuan/ton.

The two downstream products, epoxy resin/PC, have increased due to cost factors. The negotiated price for liquid epoxy resin in East China ranges from 14200 to 14600 yuan/ton, while the PC market is operating at a competitive price. The negotiated price for mid to high-end materials ranges from 15500 to 16800 yuan/ton.

The spot quantity of bisphenol A is limited, and there is currently no production and sales pressure from various manufacturers. The broad upward trend of raw materials has driven the downstream bisphenol A market to continue to rise. Pay attention to the recent transaction situation, and it is expected that bisphenol A will adjust at a high level today.

This week (7.24-7.31), the acrylonitrile market slightly rose. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of July 31st, the bulk water price in the acrylonitrile market was 8125 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.25% from last Monday’s 8025 yuan/ton. At present, the self pickup price of acrylonitrile in the market is between 7900 to 8250 yuan/ton. The slight increase in raw material prices provides cost support for acrylonitrile; The low starting point of downstream construction has slightly increased, and the demand for acrylonitrile has slightly increased compared to the previous period; The supply side is stable, with weak support for the acrylonitrile market. Acrylonitrile prices slightly increased at the end of the month.

This week (7.24-7.31), the domestic acrylonitrile operating rate was around 6.5%. Shanghai SECCO’s first line acrylonitrile plant restarted operation in late July; The 80000 ton acrylonitrile unit of Daqing Petrochemical restarted in late July.

This week (7.24-7.25), the raw material propylene market slightly rose, and the cost support for acrylonitrile strengthened. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of July 31st, the domestic propylene price was 6738 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.81% from last Monday’s 6618 yuan/ton.

It is understood that downstream ABS prices have risen this week, with the start of construction around 8.3%, a slight increase compared to the previous period; Part of the Nitrile rubber orchidization plant was restarted, and the industry started to increase slightly recently, while the acrylic fiber started to maintain a low level. Overall, the downstream main industry of acrylonitrile has seen a slight increase in construction, while the demand for acrylonitrile support has slightly increased.

Future Market Forecast: Business Society Acrylonitrile Analysts believe that in the future, there will be a slight increase in supply pressure, some support in demand, and a rise in cost. It is expected that in the short term, the market price of acrylonitrile will remain strong, with moderate or slight increases.