Business agency: The market of Styrene-butadiene rose in July. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of July 28th, the price of butadiene benzene 1502 was at 11725 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.53% from 11325 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The price of raw material butadiene and styrene rose significantly, and the cost focus of Styrene-butadiene rebounded significantly; In July, the commencement of downstream tire factories slightly rebounded compared with the earlier stage, slightly supporting Styrene-butadiene; In July, the ex factory price of Styrene-butadiene was raised at the beginning of the month. As of July 28, PetroChina Northeast Sales Company Jilin Petrochemical SBR 1502 Northeast Warehouse raised the price by 11900 yuan/ton, and the domestic Styrene-butadiene 1502 market quotation range was around 11600~12100 yuan/ton.

On the whole, the operation of Styrene-butadiene unit in July fell slightly, but it is expected to increase later.

In July, the prices of butadiene and styrene, raw materials of Styrene-butadiene, rose significantly, and the cost focus of Styrene-butadiene moved up significantly.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of July 28th, the price of butadiene was 7201 yuan/ton, an increase of 20.56% from 5973 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; As of July 28th, the price of styrene was 8125 yuan/ton, an increase of 13.42% from 7163 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

In July, the natural rubber market fluctuated slightly higher but still remained at a low level, with a small price difference with Styrene-butadiene, which could not support Styrene-butadiene. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of July 28th, the price was at 11960 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.27% from 11810 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and the highest point in the cycle was 12150 yuan/ton.

Demand side: The tire operating rate slightly increased in July, with a slightly stronger demand for rubber support compared to the previous period. It is understood that as of late July 2023, the operating load of all steel tires for rubber tire enterprises in Shandong region is 6.2%; The operating load of semi steel tires for domestic rubber tire enterprises is 7.2%.

Future market forecast: business community analysts believe that at present, the downstream construction has slightly improved compared with the early stage, but the supply side of Styrene-butadiene is expected to increase in the later stage. The supply and demand side forms a weak support for Styrene-butadiene market, while the cost side is expected to run at a high level. On the whole, it is expected that the Styrene-butadiene market will rise tentatively in the short term, and the price will increase in the supply side with the restart of some devices in the later stage or will be adjusted in a narrow range.

1、 Price trend

According to monitoring of commodity data, the yellow phosphorus market price in July was initially suppressed and then increased, with an overall increase being the main trend. On July 1st, the average price of yellow phosphorus was 22900 yuan/ton, and on July 27th, it was 23600 yuan/ton. During the month, the price increased by 3.06%.

2、 Market analysis

In July, the market price of yellow phosphorus was initially suppressed and then increased, with an overall increase being the main trend. In the early part of this month, the market situation was light, and the market construction was still at a low level, with prices slightly decreasing. The overall market trading situation of yellow phosphorus has improved in the middle and late stages, with a slight shortage of spot goods in the market. Some manufacturers have already arranged orders for a week, and it is difficult to find low-priced goods on the market. Downstream pesticide enterprises are just in need of procurement, and the atmosphere for new order negotiations is relatively strong. As of now, the market quotation in Sichuan region is around 23500-23700 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiable.

In terms of phosphate rock, according to data monitoring by Business Society, as of July 27, 2023, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate rock in China was around 878 yuan/ton. Compared with July 1, 2023 (reference price of 942 yuan/ton of phosphate rock), the price decreased by 6.79%. At present, the trading atmosphere in the phosphate rock field is relatively light, and downstream procurement is relatively cautious. In the short term, the overall narrow range and weak adjustment operation of the phosphorus ore market. In the long run, the overall trend of the phosphorus ore market is expected to experience a rebound, and specific trends still need to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

In terms of coke, according to the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, the price of quasi first-class metallurgical coke in Shanxi Province was 1754 yuan/ton on July 1st, and as of July 27th, the price was 1878.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.09%. At present, the inventory in coking enterprises is generally low. In terms of demand, the profits of the steel plant have recovered to some extent this week, and the operation of the blast furnace has been relatively stable, with good enthusiasm for coke procurement. Overall, the recent performance of the coke market is characterized by tight supply and strong demand, and it is expected that the operation will be mainly strong in the short term.

In terms of phosphoric acid, according to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, the reference price of phosphoric acid at the beginning of the month is 6300 yuan/ton, and the average price at the end of the month is 6640 yuan/ton. The price has increased by 5.4% during the month. The phosphoric acid market prices have risen this month, with strong support for raw materials and good market trading performance. It is expected that in the short term, the phosphoric acid market will be cautious and cautious, with prices in the phosphoric acid market operating in a narrow range.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Yellow phosphorus analysts from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society believe that the market price of yellow phosphorus in July was initially suppressed and then increased, with an overall increase being the main trend. At present, the market trading situation is average, with enterprises focusing on stabilizing prices and downstream purchasing on demand. Both supply and demand sides are more wait-and-see. It is expected that the market price of yellow phosphorus will temporarily stabilize and operate in the short term, and actual transactions will be negotiated separately.

List of ethylene glycol prices

According to data from Business News Agency, on July 26th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4108.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.66% compared to the beginning of the month. The prices in various regions are as follows:

The price range for spot goods executed by mainstream manufacturers in East China is between 3950-4125 yuan/ton; The spot price of ethylene glycol in the South China market is 4050 yuan/ton, while the mainstream manufacturers in Central China have a spot price range of 3900 yuan/ton for external execution; The spot price for mainstream manufacturers in North China is 4150 yuan/ton.

On July 25th, the CIF price of ethylene glycol in China was 480 US dollars/ton; The CIF Southeast Asia price is 488 US dollars/ton.

Ethylene glycol fundamentals

On the supply side, there is an expectation of a rebound in domestic maintenance equipment in the near future, while there is an expectation of a decrease in domestic ethylene glycol supply. In terms of port inventory, as of July 24th, the inventory of ethylene glycol at the East China main port was 977000 tons, which is 31400 tons from July 17th when it was 1008400 tons.

In terms of demand: Currently, there is little change in downstream polyester load, maintaining a high start-up rate of over 90%. The limited impact of terminal weaving is limited, and the initial construction will be maintained.

Short term ethylene glycol prices gradually enter the platform oscillation zone

The wave of rising raw material prices that began at the end of June, with coal and ethylene prices hitting the bottom and rebounding, and methanol prices rising, to some extent supporting ethylene glycol prices on the cost side. At present, the cost support of ethylene glycol has been strengthened compared to the previous period.

On the supply and demand side, there is a seasonal decline in operating rates and a short-term improvement in the supply and demand structure. In the short term, there is still strong support for ethylene glycol on the cost and supply sides. Ethylene glycol has been in a negative profit price range for a long time, and there is significant supply pressure in the medium to long term. It is expected that the short-term ethylene glycol price will gradually enter the platform fluctuation zone.

Recently (7.15-7.25), the market of Polybutadiene declined slightly. According to the commodity market analysis system of the business agency, as of July 25, the price of Polybutadiene in East China was 10770 yuan/ton, down 0.55% from 10830 yuan/ton in the middle of the month. The price of raw butadiene continues to rise, and the cost of Polybutadiene is supported; In the near future, the supply price of Polybutadiene has remained stable, and the offer of merchants has risen in the early stage and then dropped slightly. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of July 25, the ex factory price of Polybutadiene of Sinopec North China Sales Company had reported 10700 yuan/ton.

During the cycle (7.15-7.25), the supply pressure of Polybutadiene increased slightly compared with the previous period.

Recently (7.15-7.25), the low price of raw butadiene continued to rebound, and the cost focus of Polybutadiene rebounded. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of July 25th, the price of butadiene was 7143 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.35% from 6781 yuan/ton in the middle of the month.

Recently (7.15-7.25), the natural rubber market declined slightly, and support for Polybutadiene weakened. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of July 25th, the price of natural rubber was 11870 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.30% compared to 12150 yuan/ton in the middle of the month.

In the recent period (7.15-7.25), the tire operating rate has fluctuated slightly, with half steel tire operating slightly higher than the previous period, and all steel tire operating slightly lower than the previous period. The demand for rubber rigid needs is supported steadily. It is understood that as of mid July 2023, the operating load of rubber tire enterprises in Shandong Province is 6.3% for all steel tires and around 7.3% for half steel tires.

Future market forecast: analysts from the business community believe that the cost of Polybutadiene is supported by the soaring raw material prices. The pressure of Polybutadiene supply surface increases slightly when multiple devices are restarted; The downstream commencement fluctuates slightly, which is stable for Polybutadiene support; To sum up, it is expected that Polybutadiene will consolidate after rising in the short term. In the medium and long term, if the cost and demand continue to support, Polybutadiene may have the opportunity to continue to rise.

The price of Aluminium fluoride is weak and stable this week

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, as of July 24, the domestic price of Aluminium fluoride was 9650 yuan/ton, which was temporarily stable compared with the price of Aluminium fluoride on July 16 last weekend, 9650 yuan/ton; The price of Aluminium fluoride dropped by 2.53% from 9900 yuan/ton on July 1 at the beginning of the month. The price of raw materials is weak and stable, the cost of Aluminium fluoride is weak and stable, the downstream demand is weak, and the price of Aluminium fluoride is volatile and stable this week.

The price of raw material hydrofluoric acid is weak and temporarily stable

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of July 24th, the price of hydrofluoric acid was 9585.71 yuan/ton, which is temporarily stable compared to the price of 9585.71 yuan/ton on July 16th last weekend; Compared to July 1st, the price of hydrofluoric acid dropped by 9657.14, a decrease of 0.74%. In the slack season of refrigerant, the demand for hydrofluoric acid is weak, the price of hydrofluoric acid is weak and stable this week, the cost of Aluminium fluoride is weak and stable, and the downward pressure of Aluminium fluoride remains.

The price of fluorite has dropped this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of July 24th, the price of fluorite was 3056.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.20% compared to the price of 3062.50 yuan/ton on July 16th last weekend; The price of fluorite decreased by 1.96% compared to 3117.50 yuan/ton on July 1st at the beginning of the month. In the slack season of the market, the demand is weak. This week, the price of fluorite fell, the cost of Aluminium fluoride fell, and the downward pressure on Aluminium fluoride increased.

Aluminum prices fluctuated and fell this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of July 24th, the price of aluminum ingots was 18316.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.15% compared to the aluminum price of 18530 yuan/ton on July 16th last weekend; The aluminum price decreased by 1.26% compared to 18550 yuan/ton on July 1st at the beginning of the month. This week, the non-ferrous metal plate fell in shock, the aluminum price fell, the downstream demand support aluminum price was insufficient, Sichuan high temperature power rationing, Sichuan electrolytic aluminum enterprises were limited to start, Aluminium fluoride market demand weakened.

Market Overview and Forecast

The analysts of Aluminium fluoride industry from the business agency believe that: the prices of hydrofluoric acid and fluorite are weak and falling this week, and the cost of Aluminium fluoride raw materials is weak and falling; Power supply is limited in Sichuan, electrolytic aluminum starts to decline, and Aluminium fluoride demand drops. In the future, the demand for Aluminium fluoride will decline as the cost declines, and the downward pressure on Aluminium fluoride will increase.