1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in China on October 6th was 5733 yuan/ton. On October 12th, the average market price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in China was 5800 yuan/ton, and the price of chlorinated paraffin increased by 1.16% this week.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of chlorinated paraffin has increased this week. This week, the price of raw material liquid wax has increased, while the price of raw material liquid chlorine has decreased. The cost side is mixed. Downstream on-demand procurement, procurement needs are cautious, and market transactions are average. Due to the continuous high prices of raw material liquid wax, some chlorinated paraffin manufacturers have raised prices with the increase of raw materials. As of October 12th, the factory quotation for chlorinated paraffin 52 in Anhui Province is about 6300 yuan/ton, while the factory quotation for chlorinated paraffin 52 in Shandong Province is about 5100-5900 yuan/ton, which is environmentally friendly.

In terms of raw material liquid wax, the price of liquid wax continued to rise this week, and liquid wax fluctuated with the crude oil market. In terms of raw material liquid chlorine, the price of liquid chlorine has been lowered this week, and it has stabilized in the later stage. The market situation is mainly fluctuating and the operation is being sorted out.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Chlorinated paraffin analysts from Business Society believe that the trend of raw material prices has stabilized recently, and cost support is still ongoing. Downstream demand is weak, and market trading is weak, waiting for terminal demand to be released. It is expected that the short-term stable consolidation and operation of chlorinated paraffin prices will be the main focus, and it is recommended to pay attention to changes in the raw material market.

Product name: Isooctanol

Latest price (October 11th): 12600.00/ton

On October 11th, the market price of isooctanol in Shandong Province slightly increased, with a price increase of 250 yuan/ton or 2.02% compared to October 10th, and a year-on-year increase of 35.97%. Upstream propylene prices have stabilized at high levels, with good cost support. The downstream DOP market has slightly increased, leading to an increase in downstream demand. Multiple benefits are good, but the product trend is upward under the contradiction between supply and demand.

Recently, the market price of isooctanol in Shandong region may fluctuate slightly, with an average market price of around 12700 yuan/ton.

Product name: PVC

Latest price: 5950 yuan/ton

Analysis points: On October 9th, the spot market price of PVC was lowered, and the atmosphere on the market was average. In terms of raw materials, the factory price of upstream calcium carbide is temporarily stable. In terms of futures, futures closed lower today, with a significant degree of weakness. At present, the overall confidence of the two cities is insufficient, suppressing the mentality of the PVC market. The factory prices of manufacturers have been lowered, and downstream product manufacturers are buying at low prices. The transaction at low prices is still acceptable.

Prediction: In the short term, the PVC spot market will experience slight fluctuations and consolidation operations.

This week (October 2-8), during the National Day holiday, the overall market for viscose staple fibers remained stable, prices remained stable, and the signing of orders was average. The performance of human cotton yarn was average, and there were not many orders from the yarn factory. The prices of viscose staple fiber raw materials such as dissolved pulp and auxiliary materials such as caustic soda are at a high level, with strong cost support, which has a strong supporting effect on the price of viscose staple fiber. The start-up rate of the viscose staple fiber industry has basically maintained, and the overall industry load has increased to around 79%. Manufacturers’ inventory pressure is not high, and shipments are slightly tight. Downstream people’s cotton yarn is relatively flat, with few new orders and just a need for replenishment. Overall, the shipment is stable, and the price is stable. The demand from downstream weaving manufacturers is still relatively flat, and the improvement is not significant.

Viscose staple fiber price trend chart

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of viscose staple fiber remained stable this week (October 2-8). As of October 8, the domestic factory quotation for 1.2D * 38mm viscose staple fiber was 13480 yuan/ton, which is the same as last week’s price.

In terms of cost: This week (October 2-8), the prices of raw materials such as dissolved pulp and acid-base remained stable at high levels. Hunan and Shandong manufacturers produced broadleaf dissolved pulp, and the quotation for domestic dissolved pulp was raised to around 7500-7600 yuan/ton. The transaction volume for imported broadleaf dissolved pulp was 860 US dollars/ton, and that for needle leaf dissolved pulp was around 870-880 US dollars/ton.

Supply demand: The operating rate of the viscose staple fiber industry is basically maintained, and the overall industry load has risen to around 79%. The inventory pressure of manufacturers is not high, and shipments are slightly tight. The human cotton yarn factory mainly consumes inventory, and the enthusiasm for replenishment is currently not high. The human cotton yarn is relatively flat, and there are not many new orders that just need to be replenished. Overall, shipments are stable.

Downstream cotton yarn market

This week (October 2-8), the overall market for human cotton yarn remained stable, with stable prices and average overall sales. As of October 8th, the average ex factory price of human cotton yarn (30S, ring spun, first class) was 17650 yuan/ton, which is the same as last week’s price. There are not many new orders that just need to be restocked, and the overall shipment is average. The demand from downstream weaving manufacturers is still relatively flat, and the improvement is not significant.

Future Market Forecast

The textile market is currently in a traditional peak season, with strong cost support. The inventory of the viscose staple fiber industry is at a medium to low level, which is expected to bring a strong boost to the price of viscose staple fibers. Analysts from Business Society predict that in the short term, the overall market for viscose staple fibers and rayon yarn will be relatively strong, and prices will slightly increase.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the market price of isobutyraldehyde fluctuated and increased in September. The market price of isobutyraldehyde increased from 8233.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 9000.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 9.31%, and the price at the end of the month increased by 45.95% year-on-year. On September 27th, the isobutyraldehyde commodity index was 45.35, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 57.05% from the cycle’s highest point of 105.58 points (2021-09-16), and an increase of 50.56% from the lowest point of 30.12 points on October 7, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2021 to present)

Upstream support is good, while downstream demand increases

From a cost perspective, the upstream propylene market for isobutyraldehyde fluctuated and rose in September. The price of propylene increased from 7113.25 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 7285.75 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 2.43%. The price at the end of the month decreased by 4.27% year-on-year. The rising cost support is good, which has a positive impact on the price of isobutyraldehyde.

From the demand side, the downstream market for neopentyl glycol saw a significant increase in September. The market price of neopentyl glycol has increased from 9733.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 10450.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 7.36%. At the end of the month, prices increased by 3.81% year-on-year. The downstream market has significantly increased, and downstream manufacturers have increased their enthusiasm for purchasing isobutyraldehyde.

Small fluctuations and gains in the future market

In mid to early October, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market may experience slight fluctuations and gains. The upstream propylene market has slightly increased, with good cost support. The market situation of downstream neopentyl glycol has significantly increased, and downstream manufacturers have increased their enthusiasm for purchasing isobutyraldehyde. Under the contradiction between supply and demand, the product trend is upward. Business Society isobutyraldehyde analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market may experience slight fluctuations and gains due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.