According to price monitoring data from Business Society, as of December 18, 2023, the domestic market price of n-propanol was referenced at 7850 yuan/ton. Compared with December 12, 2023 (reference price of n-propanol was 7883 yuan/ton), the price was reduced by 33 yuan/ton. Compared with November 1, 2023 (reference price of n-propanol was 7766 yuan/ton), the price was increased by 34 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.07%.

From the monitoring chart of Business Society data, it can be seen that in the recent period (12.12-12.18), the overall market situation of domestic n-propanol has shown a slight decline. In early December, the domestic n-propanol market remained stable and the fundamentals within the n-propanol market were relatively calm. Until mid December, some n-propanol factories and operators in Shandong region narrowly lowered the price of n-propanol by about 50-100 yuan/ton, driving a slight decline in the overall n-propanol market. The supply and demand side of n-propanol was relatively stable, and the market did not continue to decline. After a slight decline, the overall market remained stable. As of December 18th, the domestic market price in Shandong region is around 7000-7800 yuan/ton. The normal operation of the n-propanol plant in the Nanjing area, and the overall stable operation of the n-propanol market, with a reference price of around 8500-9000 yuan/ton for the n-propanol market. Dealers in different regions still have reservations about prices, and the difficulty in monitoring prices may lead to differences in specific negotiation situations. Each region also has differences, and actual negotiations are the main focus.

Prediction of future market trends of n-propanol

At present, the overall trading atmosphere in the domestic n-propanol market is mild, and the supply side is stable. Downstream demand orders are mainly based on rigid procurement. Business Society’s n-propanol data analyst predicts that in the short term, the domestic n-propanol market will mainly operate with large stability and small fluctuations. The specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the spot price of PVC carbide method SG5 rose first and then fell this week. Overall, the price has increased. Last Friday, the average domestic PVC price was 5646 yuan/ton, and this Friday’s average price was 5698 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.92% during the week..

2、 Market analysis

This week, the domestic spot market price of PVC rose first and then fell, and overall, the price has increased. At present, the spot market situation is average, with light trading and low enthusiasm for downstream procurement. The manufacturer’s quotation is mainly stable. Downstream demand for goods is still cautious in actual transactions. As of now, the quotation range for PVC SG5 carbide materials in China is mostly around 5400-5830 yuan/ton.

On December 14th, international crude oil futures continued to rise, with a significant increase. The settlement price of the main WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $71.58 per barrel, with an increase of $2.11 or 3.0%. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures main contract was 76.61 yuan/barrel, an increase of 2.35 US dollars or 3.2%. Previously, there was a oversold in the market, with the weakening of the US dollar driving up oil price valuations. Coupled with the International Energy Agency (IEA) raising its forecast for next year’s oil demand, the oil market was boosted.

In terms of calcium carbide, according to data monitored by Business Society, the prices of calcium carbide manufacturers have increased this week. Last Friday, the average price of domestic calcium carbide was 2900 yuan/ton, and this Friday’s average price was 2933.33 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.57% during the week. The upstream blue charcoal market is stable and weak, with average cost support. The downstream PVC market has slightly increased, leading to an increase in demand for calcium carbide.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society PVC analysts believe that the trading situation in the PVC spot market this week is average. Upstream calcium carbide has slightly increased, with overall support being average. Downstream demand is poor, there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, and procurement enthusiasm is relatively low. It is expected that the PVC market will consolidate and operate within a certain range in the short term, and we will closely monitor changes in the news.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of December 14th, the average quoted price of 85% industrial grade formic acid enterprises in China was 3325.00 yuan/ton, which remained unchanged compared to Monday and increased by 10.83% compared to the same period last year.

This week, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market has been operating steadily, with enterprise quotations ranging from 3000 to 3500 yuan/ton. Recently, the upstream sulfuric acid market prices have been weak and stable, while the upstream methanol market has been weak and consolidating, with weak cost support. Downstream industries such as pharmaceuticals, rubber, leather, and pesticides are mostly purchasing according to demand, and the enthusiasm for inquiry procurement is still good. Enterprises often quote prices around the range based on their own situation. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, on December 14th, industrial grade 90% formic acid enterprises quoted around 3700-4000 yuan/ton, and on December 14th, industrial grade 94% formic acid enterprises quoted around 4200-5000 yuan/ton.

Business Society formic acid analysts believe that the current cost support is average, and downstream companies need to follow up. Holders are actively shipping, and it is expected that the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market will remain stable in the short term. More attention still needs to be paid to market news guidance.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic spandex market remained stable in December. As of December 13th, the price of 40D spandex was 32575 yuan/ton, unchanged from the beginning of the month and down 9.51% year-on-year. The industry’s operating rate remained around 72%.

The domestic pure MDI market is stable, and the mainstream negotiation for domestic spot goods is 20500-20800 yuan/ton by wire transfer for self pickup in barrels. The market negotiation atmosphere is light, traders follow the market, and downstream demand is sluggish. The overall operating rate of the domestic PTMEG industry is around 82%, and the price trend continues to decline, with a molecular weight of 1800 quoted at 18000-18500 yuan/ton.

Entering December, terminal demand has significantly weakened, orders have decreased, and the winter replenishment market is coming to an end. Recently, the shipment speed of autumn and winter fabrics has slowed down compared to the previous period, and downstream factories have relatively poor enthusiasm for stocking raw materials, which has dragged up the price of spandex. The downstream has a bearish attitude and the raw materials have not been digested, so the procurement of spandex is mainly based on rigid demand.

Business Society analysts believe that the cost side is operating weakly, and downstream wait-and-see sentiment has become stronger. Currently, there is little room for improvement in demand for spandex, and there are expectations of further weakness in the future. Under the dual weak pattern of cost and demand, it is expected that there is a possibility of a short-term decline in the price of spandex.

Recently (12.1-12.12), the acrylonitrile market has slightly declined. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of December 12th, the bulk price of acrylonitrile in the market was 9862 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.38% from 10000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. At present, the mainstream price for self extraction of acrylonitrile from tanks in the market is between 9700 to 9900 yuan/ton. The prices of raw materials have fluctuated slightly, and the support of costs for acrylonitrile has weakened slightly; Minor fluctuations in downstream ABS production; The production of acrylonitrile units has increased, and the supply and demand side has increased compared to the previous period. The acrylonitrile market requires strong support from inquiries, and prices have fluctuated and stabilized at high levels.

Recently (12.1-12.12), the overall construction of domestic acrylonitrile units has increased to around 70%.

Recently (12.1-12.12), the raw material propylene market has experienced a slight decline due to fluctuations, and the cost support for acrylonitrile has weakened. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of December 12th, the domestic propylene price was 6983 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.72% from 7105 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

It is understood that as of early December, the downstream ABS production has remained around 7.70%, providing strong support for the demand for acrylonitrile; Recently, the demand for acrylic fiber terminals has continued to be sluggish, leading to a weakening of demand for acrylonitrile; The nitrile rubber plant is operating normally, with slight support for the demand for acrylonitrile; Low starting point for polyacrylamide and other materials. Overall, there is still support for the demand for acrylonitrile, but as the supply of acrylonitrile increases, the acrylonitrile market is gradually under pressure.

Market forecast: Business Society’s acrylonitrile analyst believes that the current supply of acrylonitrile has increased compared to the previous period; The demand side is mainly supported by rigid demand, and the price of raw material propylene has slightly decreased. Overall, it is expected that the acrylonitrile market will experience a narrow consolidation at a high level in the short term.