According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic BDO market is slowly rising. From August 8th to 15th, the average price of domestic BDO increased from 11257 yuan/ton to 11414 yuan/ton, with a weekly price increase of 1.44%, a month on month increase of 1.52%, and a year-on-year increase of 14.14%. At present, the industry’s capacity utilization rate is low, the market’s spot supply is tight, production enterprises are reluctant to sell, and online bidding is on the high side to support the market. Downstream rigid demand procurement is the main focus, and under cost pressure, it tends to be cautious, suppressing market growth.

On the supply side, BDO’s supply side is mixed.

On the cost side, raw material calcium carbide: The manufacturer’s inventory is average, and the upstream blue charcoal market is consolidating at a low level, while the downstream PVC market is consolidating at a high level. The factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region has slightly increased. On August 15th, the benchmark price of calcium carbide in Shangshang Society was 3033.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.82% compared to the beginning of this month (2950.00 yuan/ton). In terms of methanol, costs and demand are improving, and the methanol market is experiencing high volatility. As of 15:00 on August 15th, the domestic methanol Taicang price is 2365 yuan/ton. The recent consolidation and operation of calcium carbide market and slight improvement in methanol market are expected to lead to a breakthrough in BDO cost.

On the demand side, the follow-up of terminal demand is relatively average, suppressing the enthusiasm of downstream industries to start construction. At the same time, some downstream companies such as PBT and GBL have raised prices in response to fluctuations in raw materials, but the industry still faces losses and strong resistance to high prices. Downstream continuation of contract follow-up, spot sporadic small order procurement. Short term bearish factors on the demand side of BDO.

In the future market forecast, there is still some support on the supply side, but the downstream end has limited ability to accept high prices. Contract orders are mainly followed up, while spot orders are generally followed up, or market trends may be suppressed. BDO analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic BDO market situation will be mainly on a wait-and-see basis.

Aluminum fluoride prices stabilized this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of August 14th, the domestic quotation for aluminum fluoride was 9575 yuan/ton, which has stabilized compared to the 9575 yuan/ton price of aluminum fluoride on August 4th last weekend. The prices of raw materials have stabilized, and the cost of aluminum fluoride has stabilized. This week, the price of aluminum fluoride has weakened and stabilized.

The price of raw material hydrofluoric acid is weak and stabilizing

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of August 14th, the price of hydrofluoric acid was 9483.33 yuan/ton, which has stabilized compared to the price of 9483.33 yuan/ton on August 4th last weekend. The price of raw material fluorite is weak and stable, and the cost support for hydrofluoric acid is weak; The losses of hydrofluoric acid enterprises still exist. Recently, some hydrofluoric acid units have shut down, the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid has been tight, the demand for hydrofluoric acid is weak during the off-season of refrigerants, and the order situation of hydrofluoric acid manufacturers is weak. As a result, the hydrofluoric acid market remains sluggish, and the price of hydrofluoric acid is weak and temporarily stable this week. The cost is temporarily stable, and the price of aluminum fluoride is stabilizing.

Market Overview and Forecast

Analysts from the fluoride aluminum industry at Business Society believe that the price of hydrofluoric acid is weak and stabilizing this week, and the cost of raw materials for fluoride aluminum is temporarily stable. In the future, costs are stabilizing and demand is weak. There is still insufficient support for the rise of aluminum fluoride and downward pressure. It is expected that the price of aluminum fluoride will stabilize in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the market for polyaluminum chloride remained stable in early August, with the main market price for solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride in China reporting around 1718 yuan/ton. The production of water treatment enterprises in China’s main production areas is normal, with sufficient market inventory. Downstream procurement is based on demand, and in addition, weather disasters in the early days have affected the circulation of the industrial chain, making it difficult to make actual transactions; The price of raw material hydrochloric acid has changed relatively little this month, while the market for polyaluminum chloride has remained relatively unchanged.

Raw material hydrochloric acid: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price remained stable and slightly increased in early August, with prices ranging from 173-174 yuan/ton. The upstream liquid chlorine market has recently seen a slight increase, with good cost support; Domestic hydrochloric acid manufacturers have average inventory; The downstream ammonium chloride market price has significantly increased, providing some support for the hydrochloric acid market., Increased willingness to purchase downstream. Analysts from Business Society believe that the recent slight fluctuations and gains in the hydrochloric acid market are the main trend.

Liquefied natural gas for production. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, in early August, the domestic liquefied natural gas prices first fell and then rose, showing a “V” shaped trend: on August 1st, the average price of liquefied natural gas in China was 3630 yuan/ton, slightly dropping to 3594 yuan/ton on the 4th, and then rising again to around 3634 yuan/ton. The overall upward trend this week was only 0.11%. Affected by the reduction of raw gas auction price, the cost end support weakened at the beginning of the month and the market supply exceeded demand. Due to the impact of rainstorm, the transportation in some areas was not smooth, and there were many negative factors in the market, so the price fell slightly; Afterwards, the price of raw gas slightly increased, and some liquid factories in certain regions underwent maintenance. Downstream restocking willingness increased, resulting in a slight increase in liquid prices. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic liquefied natural gas prices will fluctuate and operate in a narrow range.

Future forecast: In early August, there will be little change in raw material prices, and the impact of the fuel liquefied natural gas market will also be small. The cost of polymeric aluminum chloride will also have a small change. On the supply side, China’s polyaluminum chloride manufacturers produce normally and have sufficient inventory; However, there has been no significant improvement on the demand side and the delivery process has slowed down. Analysis suggests that the market outlook for polyaluminum chloride will remain stable with minor fluctuations as a supplement.

According to data monitoring by Business Society, as of August 10, 2023, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate ore in China was around 856 yuan/ton. Compared with August 6, 2023 (reference price of 868 yuan/ton), the price was reduced by 12 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.38%.

From the data monitoring chart of the Business Society, it can be seen that this week (8.06-8.10), the overall market situation of mid to high-end grade phosphorus ore in China showed a slight decline. At present, the overall trading volume in the phosphate ore field is average, with limited downstream new orders. The weak downstream demand at the end provides limited market support for phosphate ore, and the current market shipment of phosphate ore is not as expected. Within this week, some mining companies in some regions in China have slightly lowered the price of phosphate ore, with a decrease of around 10-20 yuan/ton. As of August 10th, the domestic market price of 30 grade phosphate ore is around 750-950 yuan/ton. The specific price may vary depending on factors such as the original ore specifications, powder to lump ratio, and transportation conditions. The specific details need to be negotiated through actual orders.

Prediction and Analysis of the Future Market Trend of Phosphate Rock

At present, the overall phosphorus ore market has been operating at a weak and low level for a period of time. The industry in the phosphorus ore field is highly optimistic about rising prices. Although the terminal demand is average, the recovery of the downstream yellow phosphorus and phosphoric acid market still gives confidence to the industry. Therefore, the risk of a sustained downward trend in the phosphorus ore market is relatively small. The phosphorus ore data analyst from the Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic phosphorus ore market will mostly remain stable and consolidate, The specific trend still needs to pay more attention to the changes in news on the supply and demand side.

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price trend of cryolite in Henan region is stable. On August 7th, the average market price in Henan region was 7825 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton compared to the average price of 7850 yuan/ton on August 1st, a decrease of 0.32%.

quotations analysis

The price of cryolite has slightly decreased, and the manufacturer’s quotation has remained stable with little movement. The upstream construction of cryolite remains unchanged, and raw material prices have decreased. The pressure on production costs of cryolite has slightly weakened. Manufacturers maintain rational inventory and actively ship. Downstream, they follow up on the purchase of high cryolite as needed. Some manufacturers adjust their prices slightly based on their own shipment situation, and the cryolite market is negotiated for operation. As of August 7th, the factory quotation for cryolite in Shandong region is 7000-8600 yuan/ton; The factory quotation for cryolite in Henan region is between 7200-8900 yuan/ton.

The upstream fluorite market continues to remain stable, with an average market price of 3056.25 yuan/ton as of August 7th, which is unchanged from the price of 3056.25 yuan/ton as of August 1st. The current situation of the domestic fluorite industry still exists, and the operating rate of enterprises is maintained, with normal spot supply. Mining enterprises are facing safety and environmental requirements, making it difficult to improve the operation of fluorite mines. The shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises, and downstream enterprises have serious resistance to high priced raw materials, The price trend of fluorite is mainly weak and stable.

The downstream aluminum market is fluctuating and declining. On August 7th, the aluminum price was around 18506.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.48% compared to the price of 18596.67 yuan/ton on August 1st. In the off-season of downstream consumption, the operating rate is low, the overall demand is limited, the market trading atmosphere is average, and the situation of destocking is not ideal. The aluminum price trend is consolidating and declining, and there is insufficient support for cryolite.

Future Market Forecast

The start of raw material production is maintained, with acceptable upstream support. Cryolite enterprises maintain active shipments, while downstream parties follow up as needed. The overall market trading atmosphere is average, and there is a stalemate between supply and demand on the market. It is expected that the cryolite market will consolidate and operate in the future, and specific attention will be paid to changes in manufacturer inventory in the future.