Recent price trends of urea

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic urea market price rose first and then fell this week. The urea price dropped from 2678.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2658.33 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.75%. Weekend prices increased by 5.28% year-on-year. On September 10th, the urea commodity index was 123.64, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 18.83% from the cycle’s highest point of 152.33 points (2022-05-15), and an increase of 122.37% from the lowest point of 55.60 points on August 17th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Cost support is good, downstream demand weakens, and urea supply is sufficient

From the supply side perspective, the mainstream price of urea in China has slightly decreased this week.

From the data of the upstream and downstream industry chains, it can be seen that the urea upstream market has significantly increased this week: the price of liquefied natural gas has significantly increased, from 4020.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 4476.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 11.34%, and the weekend price has decreased by 24.52% year-on-year; The price of anthracite has stabilized at a low level, with the price of Yangquan anthracite (washing medium block) at 1160 yuan/ton this week; The price of liquid ammonia has slightly increased, rising from 3333.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 3833.33 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 5.50%. The weekend price has decreased by 7.26% year-on-year. The prices of upstream raw materials have significantly increased, providing good support for urea prices. This week, the downstream melamine price of urea has stabilized at a high level, with a price of 7425.00 yuan/ton.

From a demand perspective, agricultural demand has weakened, industrial demand is average, and urea exports are good. Sporadic fertilization in agriculture. The operating rate of the compound fertilizer plant is average, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement is normal. Board and melamine enterprises generally start construction and mainly purchase on demand. From a supply perspective: Some enterprises have stopped for maintenance, and their daily urea production is around 160000-170000 tons, indicating sufficient supply.

Small fluctuation and decline in the future market

In mid to late September, the domestic urea market may experience a slight fluctuation and decline. Business Society urea analysts believe that the upstream market of urea has slightly increased, and urea costs are well supported. But downstream agricultural demand has basically ended, and industrial demand is average. The daily production of urea is around 160000-170000 tons, with sufficient supply. In the future, urea may experience a narrow range of fluctuations and decline.

Price trend

In early September, the domestic EVA market remained stagnant and spot prices were generally flat. According to data monitoring from Business Society, as of September 8th, the average factory price of EVA in China was 14000 yuan/ton, an increase of 0% compared to the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

The domestic EVA market prices stabilized at the beginning of this month. On the supply side, the operating rate of the EVA industry has increased compared to last month, and the current load position is around 88%. The market supply has increased compared to the previous period, and the pressure on factory inventory has increased. The profitability of EVA polymerization plants has generally increased in a narrow range, with manufacturers’ factory prices mainly showing a strong market trend. The pressure on social inventory is average, and the confidence of traders is relatively stable supported by the high prices of polymerization factories. The demand side maintains a differentiated pattern in the face of EVA price market support. The demand for photovoltaic materials has entered the traditional peak season, and terminal enterprises have a good enthusiasm for stocking, which clearly supports the market. The price of photovoltaic film materials has increased. The follow-up of end companies in the direction of foaming materials lags behind, with low actual prices and consumption maintaining at off-season levels, dragging down the overall demand side of EVA. The overall stocking operation on the site is based on demand, with enterprises generally accepting high priced goods and prices being pulled by markets from different directions, resulting in a stalemate in operation.

Overall, the supply of EVA in the early September market increased, and the downstream demand side was still driven by the main force of photovoltaic. The continuous weak demand for foaming materials has dragged down the overall market. Overall, companies mainly offer stable prices, while merchants follow the market. It is expected that the domestic EVA market may continue to remain stagnant in the short term.

In September, the domestic spandex market maintained a slight upward trend. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of 40D spandex as of September 7th was 34250 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.74% compared to the beginning of the month. The overall construction of the industry is around 72%, and the cost side is still strong, with a slight increase in downstream demand.

Current mainstream price statistics of spandex market (unit: yuan/ton)

20D/ 30D/ 40D

Zhejiang/ 38000./37000./35000

Henan/ 37000./35500./33000

Fujian/. 37000.//. 34000./32500

Jiangsu/ 39500./37500./36500

Cost support still exists, and the price of pure MDI raw materials in the East China market has risen. The mainstream offer for Shanghai goods is 22200-22800 yuan/ton, and the market supply is limited. The overall downstream market is slow to follow up, with a focus on small orders. The price of PTMEG remains stable, with a molecular weight of 1800 quoted at 20000 yuan/ton, with little change in the device.

Since mid to late August, downstream terminal weaving has shown a slight increase in textile and clothing orders. Most factories have reported that winter fabrics are gradually being issued, and the operating rate of weaving machines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has slightly increased to over 64%. At the same time, there have been frequent regulatory notices related to the Asian Games recently. Due to concerns about a reduction in the overall supply of raw materials in the later stage, procurement costs have increased, and some downstream companies have concentrated replenishment.

Analysts from Business Society believe that the current increase in cost pressure has forced spandex factories to raise prices. The demand side is slowly recovering, with raw material prices rising, but the terminal order situation has not significantly improved. The “Jinjiu” market remains to be observed, and it is expected that the short-term spandex market will be cautious and wait-and-see.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of September 6th, the average price quoted by domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid enterprises was 3825.00 yuan/ton, which is the same as the price on September 1st and an increase of 1.55% compared to the same period last year.

Since September, there has been no significant fluctuation in the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market, and mainstream prices have remained stable. Recently, the price of raw material sulfuric acid has remained high and stable, while the raw material methanol market has experienced narrow fluctuations. The cost support has been stable, with downstream procurement being the main focus and the market trading atmosphere being average. Holders are actively shipping, and the mainstream quotation of enterprises is around 3900 yuan/ton.

Business Society formic acid analysts believe that current cost support still exists, while supply and demand performance is average. It is expected that the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market will stabilize and consolidate in the short term, and more attention needs to be paid to changes in demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic ethanol market is operating at a high level. From August 29th to September 5th, the domestic ethanol price increased from 6812 yuan/ton to 6825 yuan/ton, with a weekly price increase of 0.18%, a month on month increase of 2.63%, and a year-on-year increase of 2.63%. The high support of raw materials has led to an increase in demand for some downstream products, but the supply has remained high, resulting in a sluggish rise in the ethanol market in the future.

On the cost side, the high price of corn fluctuates, and the inventory of aged corn will continue to decline. The demand for breeding and feed production will continue to increase. The overall supply of aged corn will continue to be in a period of shortage, and the supply capacity will continue to decline. Traders are reluctant to sell at low prices. Currently, domestic spring corn has also started to be listed, with spring corn in Hubei, Sichuan and other places starting to increase in quantity, and some early maturing spring corn in Shandong, Henan and other places also being listed sporadically, At present, there is no centralized increase in quantity, and the prices in the sales area remain high. There are temporary positive factors in the cost of ethanol.

On the supply side, the ethanol supply side is mixed.

On the demand side, downstream chemical companies are just in need of procurement, and large ethyl acetate factories are gradually returning to full capacity. Some factories in East China have maintenance plans. The short-term demand for ethanol is mixed.

In the future market forecast, cost and supply support are high, and demand is expected to break through. Ethanol analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic ethanol market may experience strong fluctuations in the short term.