According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the market price of isobutyraldehyde fluctuated and increased in September. The market price of isobutyraldehyde increased from 8233.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 9000.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 9.31%, and the price at the end of the month increased by 45.95% year-on-year. On September 27th, the isobutyraldehyde commodity index was 45.35, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 57.05% from the cycle’s highest point of 105.58 points (2021-09-16), and an increase of 50.56% from the lowest point of 30.12 points on October 7, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2021 to present)

Upstream support is good, while downstream demand increases

From a cost perspective, the upstream propylene market for isobutyraldehyde fluctuated and rose in September. The price of propylene increased from 7113.25 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 7285.75 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 2.43%. The price at the end of the month decreased by 4.27% year-on-year. The rising cost support is good, which has a positive impact on the price of isobutyraldehyde.

From the demand side, the downstream market for neopentyl glycol saw a significant increase in September. The market price of neopentyl glycol has increased from 9733.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 10450.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 7.36%. At the end of the month, prices increased by 3.81% year-on-year. The downstream market has significantly increased, and downstream manufacturers have increased their enthusiasm for purchasing isobutyraldehyde.

Small fluctuations and gains in the future market

In mid to early October, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market may experience slight fluctuations and gains. The upstream propylene market has slightly increased, with good cost support. The market situation of downstream neopentyl glycol has significantly increased, and downstream manufacturers have increased their enthusiasm for purchasing isobutyraldehyde. Under the contradiction between supply and demand, the product trend is upward. Business Society isobutyraldehyde analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market may experience slight fluctuations and gains due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

Commodity Market: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the mainstream market of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cationic, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in China this week slightly declined. On the 28th, the market reported around 13710 yuan/ton, and on the 25th, it reported around 13740 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.22%. The recent rise in crude oil prices has boosted the domestic market. The raw material acrylonitrile market is on the rise, while the acrylic acid market is weak. The cost of polyacrylamide is fluctuating. Enterprises in the main production areas are operating normally, the market supply is abundant, downstream demand is weak, and commodity circulation is slow. The mainstream market of polyacrylamide is slightly weak.

Raw material acrylonitrile: According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the acrylonitrile market has risen this week. As of September 28th, the bulk water price in the acrylonitrile market was 9825 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.5% from 9487.50 yuan/ton on September 25th. At present, the supply side is basically stable, the inventory pressure of enterprises is not high, and the demand side has strong demand support. In addition, the high prices of raw materials are expected to maintain a strong market price for acrylonitrile in the short term.

Raw Material Acrylic Acid: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the acrylic acid market has declined this week. As of September 28th, the average price of acrylic acid in the East China region was 875.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.14% from 7025.00 yuan/ton on September 25th. Recently, there has been limited cost support, with some enterprise devices restarting and increasing market spot supply. Downstream inquiry and procurement enthusiasm is not high, and high-end price negotiations in the market are slightly weak. Holders are actively shipping, and the acrylic acid market atmosphere is weak.

Liquefied natural gas for production. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, domestic liquefied natural gas prices have fallen this week. Recently, the domestic liquefied natural gas market has weakened, and there is a strong willingness to discharge inventory in the upcoming holiday market. A new round of bidding for raw gas is about to start, with the industry mainly focusing on wait-and-see. It is expected that domestic liquefied natural gas will be slightly consolidated and operated in the short term.

Future Market Forecast: The prices of raw materials have fluctuated this week, the overall fuel market is active, and the cost of polyacrylamide is weak. On the supply side, enterprises in the main production area have normal production and sufficient market supply; On the demand side, downstream procurement and supply remain flat, with little change in market transactions. The polyacrylamide market remained stable and slightly weakened. It is expected that the demand side situation will continue to determine the market trend, and the probability will remain stable.

Zinc prices fluctuate and consolidate this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of September 22, the zinc price was 22174 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.01% compared to the fluctuating zinc price of 22172 yuan/ton on September 15. The fundamentals are mixed, with limited fluctuations in zinc prices. The daily fluctuations in zinc prices have not exceeded 1%, and zinc prices have fluctuated and consolidated in a narrow range this week.

Zinc market fundamentals

The hawkish statement from the Federal Reserve boosted the US dollar index, with 10-year US Treasury yields hitting new highs. According to data from the US Department of Labor, the number of initial jobless claims in the week of September 16th decreased by 20000 after seasonal adjustments. The US labor market remains resilient, and the Federal Reserve has significantly raised its GDP growth forecast for 2023 and its GDP forecast for 2024. Macro positive, zinc market macro positive.

In terms of supply, the supply of zinc concentrate is relatively loose, and with high profits from smelters, the supply of zinc ingots increases. Coupled with the opening of the zinc ingot import window, the supply of zinc in the market increases; In terms of demand, the renovation of urban villages and the preparation of goods before the Double Festival have stimulated demand in the zinc market, and the consumption of infrastructure and home appliances has strengthened. However, real estate has dragged down consumption in the zinc market, and the actual effect of policy incentives has not been obvious. The accumulation of finished product warehouses has forced the operating rate of galvanized pipe enterprises to decline, and the growth rate of demand in the zinc market lags behind supply, making it difficult to reverse the trend of overcapacity. The overall zinc market is oversupplied, and there are still bearish prospects in the zinc market.

Future Market Forecast

According to data analysts from Business Society, the macroeconomic expectations of the international market have rebounded, and the positive support for the zinc market has increased. The domestic supply and demand expectations have both increased, but the supply growth rate is expected to be faster than the demand growth rate, resulting in an oversupply of zinc in the domestic market. Overall, the macro outlook is positive for both supply and demand, but the zinc market is oversupplied, making it difficult to determine the rise or fall of zinc prices. It is expected that zinc prices will consolidate in a narrow range in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the spot price of PVC carbide SG5 has decreased this week. On Thursday, September 14th, the average domestic PVC price was 6310 yuan/ton, and on Thursday, September 14th, the average price was 6214 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 1.52% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the domestic spot market price of PVC fell. The upstream calcium carbide market prices have significantly declined, and the futures market has weakened slightly, leading to a lack of confidence in the PVC spot market and a decrease in prices. The demand in the downstream market is poor, and the trading atmosphere on the market is weak. Many people are cautious and wait, and the overall transaction situation is weak, with pre holiday restocking being the main focus. As of now, the quotation range for PVC5 carbide materials in China is mostly around 6050-6450 yuan/ton.

In terms of crude oil, international crude oil futures closed lower on September 20th. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $89.66 per barrel, a decrease of $0.82 or 1.0%. The settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $93.53 per barrel, a decrease of $0.81 or 0.9. The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain interest rates unchanged as expected by the market, but its attitude is hawkish. It is expected that there will still be a possibility of interest rate hikes within the year, and energy demand expectations will be suppressed, leading to a downward pressure on oil prices.

In terms of calcium carbide, according to data monitored by Business Society, the prices of calcium carbide manufacturers have significantly decreased this week. Last Thursday, September 14th, the average price of domestic calcium carbide was 3350 yuan/ton. This Thursday, September 14th, the average price was 2950 yuan/ton, and the price fell by 11.94% during the week. Upstream orchid charcoal prices are stable and relatively strong, with acceptable cost support. The downstream PVC market has recently slightly declined, and downstream customers’ enthusiasm for calcium carbide procurement has weakened. As the National Day approaches, manufacturers are lowering prices to attract orders. In the future, it is expected that the factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region may slightly decrease as a supplement, with consolidation being the main focus.

3、 Future Market Forecast

PVC analysts from Business Society believe that the trading atmosphere in the PVC spot market this week is not good. Upstream calcium carbide prices have significantly declined, with weak support. In addition, futures prices have been declining this week, which has dampened confidence in the spot market and shifted the focus of the PVC spot market downward. It is expected that the PVC market will continue to fluctuate within the range in the short term, and we will closely monitor changes in the news.

Product name: Titanium dioxide powder

Latest price on September 20th: 17100 yuan/ton

Key analysis points: On September 20th, the domestic titanium dioxide market price rose. On the 18th, Longqi took the lead in promoting price increases, and other manufacturers followed suit one after another. Overall, the price of domestic titanium dioxide has increased by around 700 to 1000 yuan/ton, while the sales price for foreign trade has increased by around 100 to 150 dollars/ton. At present, some domestic manufacturers are waiting and sealing orders, and some manufacturers are implementing new order quotations. The focus of the new order transaction price has shifted upwards.

Prediction: It is expected that the trend of titanium dioxide powder will be strong in the short term, and the actual transaction price will be negotiated separately.