Commodity Market: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, in mid September, the mainstream market of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cationic, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in China’s domestic market slightly declined. On the 10th, the market reported around 13971 yuan/ton, and on the 19th, it reported around 13860 yuan/ton, with a decline of only 0.8%. The recent rise in crude oil has had an impact, leading to an increase in the prices of various raw materials. The market for raw materials acrylonitrile and acrylic acid has risen, the cost of polyacrylamide has increased, and enterprises in the main production areas are operating normally. The market supply is abundant, downstream demand is weak, and commodity circulation is slow. The mainstream market for polyacrylamide is slightly weak.

Raw material acrylonitrile: According to the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, the acrylonitrile market was on the rise in mid September. On the 10th, the mainstream market quotation was 9238 yuan/ton, and on the 19th, the main market quotation was 9413 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.89%. At present, the self pickup price of acrylonitrile in the market is between 9300 to 9500 yuan/ton. The slight increase in raw material prices has supported the cost of acrylonitrile; Downstream construction slightly rebounded; The operation of the acrylonitrile unit has been basically stable, and the price of acrylonitrile has slightly increased.

Raw Material Acrylic Acid: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the acrylic acid market rose in mid September. As of the 19th of this month, the average price of acrylic acid in East China was 7075 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.71% compared to the price of 7025 yuan/ton on the 10th. Recently, the raw material propylene market has seen an increase, with increased cost support and fluctuations in some enterprise installations. The capacity utilization rate of the acrylic acid industry has decreased, and spot supply has shrunk. Downstream inquiries and purchases continue to be in demand, and the market trading atmosphere is still good. The focus of negotiations in the acrylic acid market is mainly on stability, with some enterprise prices slightly increasing.

Liquefied natural gas for production. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of liquefied natural gas in China decreased in mid September: on September 10th, the average price of liquefied natural gas in China was 4412 yuan/ton, while on September 19th, the price was 4274 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.14%. Recently, the price of liquefied natural gas in China has first decreased and then increased. On the 11th, domestic liquefied natural gas prices began to decrease. The market is dominated by oversupply, with a large number of heavy vehicles and limited downstream delivery capacity, resulting in a continuous decline in liquid prices. On the 14th, liquefied natural gas prices began to rebound and rise. After continuous price reductions, inventory has been alleviated, and liquid prices have increased in most regions of China, resulting in a strong market trend.

Future forecast: In mid September, the focus of raw material prices will shift upwards, the overall fuel market will decline, and the cost of polyacrylamide will slightly increase. On the supply side, enterprises in the main production area have normal production and sufficient market supply; On the demand side, downstream procurement and supply remain flat, with little change in market transactions. The polyacrylamide market remained stable and slightly weakened. It is expected that the demand side situation will continue to determine the market trend, and the probability will remain stable.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of liquid caprolactam in China was 13375 yuan/ton on September 11, and 14066 yuan/ton on September 18. The price of caprolactam increased by 5.17% this week.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of caprolactam has risen this week. The price of raw material pure benzene has significantly increased, providing positive cost support. Follow up on downstream demand with caution and prioritize on-demand procurement. The local supply of caprolactam in the market has decreased, and the supply side has performed well.

The price of raw material pure benzene has significantly increased this week. On September 11th, the price of pure benzene was 8045 yuan/ton, and on September 18th, the price of pure benzene was 8717 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.35%. This week, the price of Sinopec pure benzene was 8800 yuan/ton.

The downstream PA6 market saw a significant increase this week. The cost side support of PA6 is strengthening. The domestic polymerization plant has stable load, abundant supply, and inventory has been digested. In terms of demand, it is average, but downstream stocking enthusiasm is constrained by high prices. As of September 18th, the domestic PA6 mixed benchmark price is 14900 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society Caprolactam analysts believe that the caprolactam market has been relatively strong recently. Although the raw material pure benzene has slightly declined after the rise, there is still support on the supply side. It is expected that the price of caprolactam will continue to remain high and firm in the short term.

According to the price monitoring data of Business Society, as of September 15, 2023, the reference price of domestic n-propanol was 8050 yuan/ton. Compared with September 10, 2023 (reference price of n-propanol was 8116 yuan/ton), the price was reduced by 66 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.82%.

From the data monitoring chart of the Business Society, it can be seen that this week (9.10-9.15), the overall market situation of domestic n-propanol showed a fluctuating trend of first rising and then falling. At the beginning of the week, the supply and demand side of n-propanol in the field was relatively calm, and some suppliers in Shandong region raised the market price of n-propanol narrowly by around 50 yuan/ton. In the midweek stage, some factories and suppliers are actively shipping before holidays, lowering the shipping price of n-propanol by around 50-100 yuan/ton. As of September 15th, the domestic market price of n-propanol in Shandong region is based on around 7500-7800 yuan/ton. The market for n-propanol in Nanjing is relatively stable, and the market price for n-propanol is around 9000 yuan/ton. Distributors in different regions still have reservations about prices, and the difficulty in monitoring prices may lead to differences in specific negotiation situations. Each region also has differences, and actual negotiations are the main focus.

Prediction of the Future Market Trend of n-propanol

At present, the overall trading atmosphere in the n-propanol market is generally average, with new orders being relatively cautious. Downstream demand mainly continues to be based on just in demand procurement. Business Society n-propanol data analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic n-propanol market is mainly subject to narrow adjustment and operation, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of September 14th, the average quoted price of epichlorohydrin enterprises was 8350.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.30% compared to Monday’s price and a decrease of 26.32% compared to the same period last year.

This week, the market for epichlorohydrin remained stable and saw some growth. Recently, the price of raw material glycerol has been stable, while the price of raw material propylene has risen, with significant cost support. In addition, some enterprises have no inventory pressure, and their mentality to lower prices is not strong. The news of expected increase in supply has had an impact. Downstream follow-up enthusiasm is average, with cautious wait-and-see as the main focus. The high-end transaction atmosphere in the market has remained stagnant. On the 14th, the mainstream negotiations in the Shandong epichlorohydrin market were around 8300-8500 yuan/ton.

Upstream propylene, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the reference price for propylene on September 13th was 7265.75, an increase of 2.14% compared to September 1st (7113.25).

Downstream epoxy resin, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the reference price for epoxy resin on September 13th was 14933.33, an increase of 3.23% compared to September 1st (14466.67).

Analysts from Business Society’s epichlorohydrin believe that the current cost support is strong, coupled with downstream pre holiday stocking expectations, which have some support for the market. However, the news of some device plans restarting has affected downstream procurement enthusiasm, and the mentality of operators is under pressure. It is expected that the epichlorohydrin market may remain stagnant and operate on a wait-and-see basis in the short term, and more attention still needs to be paid to changes in the market supply and demand side.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic maleic anhydride market continued to rise in September. As of September 13th, the average market price of n-butane oxidation maleic anhydride remained at 7939.80 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.97% compared to the price of 7220.00 yuan/ton on September 1st.

On September 13th, the maleic anhydride commodity index was 74.80, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 55.06% from the cycle’s highest point of 166.43 points (2021-12-15), and an increase of 46.15% from the lowest point of 51.18 points on April 14th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Rising Crude Oil Boosts Domestic Maleic Anhydride Market

The international crude oil market has recently risen. OPEC+, an oil producing country, is rumored to have extended production cuts. The market expects an additional 1 million barrels of production reduction from Saudi Arabia to continue until December, while Russia’s crude oil production reduction will continue until December. Supply tightening is expected to continue to ferment and boost the oil market; In addition, the weakening of the US dollar has led to a rebound in oil market valuations and the potential impact of storms in the US Gulf on energy supply. The market is concerned that OPEC’s production reduction in oil producing countries may lead to tight energy supply in the fourth quarter, pushing oil prices to a new 10 month high.

Continuous rise in the market for n-butane and hydrogenated benzene drives up the domestic maleic anhydride market

On the upstream side, recent crude oil prices have continued to rise, styrene prices have risen, and Sinopec’s pure benzene prices have been raised to 8500 yuan/ton. Supported by multiple positive factors, pure benzene prices have risen, and the hydrogenation benzene market has been significantly driven up this week, with factory prices in the main production areas rising to 8700-8900 yuan/ton. Recently, the market for n-butane has continued to rise, and as of September 13th, the price in Shandong is around 5500-5600 yuan/ton.

The rise of unsaturated resin market drives the domestic maleic anhydride market

Recently, the main raw material styrene in the downstream unsaturated resin market of maleic anhydride has continued to rise, boosting the atmosphere in the resin market. Downstream procurement of resin has increased, and shipments are active. The resin shipment has improved, and the procurement of raw material maleic anhydride has increased, supporting the maleic anhydride market. As of the 13th, the solid anhydride in Shandong region is around 8200 yuan/ton, Jiangsu region is around 8200 yuan/ton, and South China region is around 8600 yuan/ton.

Business Society maleic anhydride product analysts believe that the current prices of raw materials for maleic anhydride, n-butane and hydrogenated benzene, continue to be high, and the downstream unsaturated resin market has improved; In addition, many of the main factories of maleic anhydride are currently closed, and the execution of preliminary orders is the main focus, resulting in a tight supply of maleic anhydride in stock. It is expected that the maleic anhydride market may continue its upward trend in the short term.