According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic ethanol market is operating at a high level. From August 29th to September 5th, the domestic ethanol price increased from 6812 yuan/ton to 6825 yuan/ton, with a weekly price increase of 0.18%, a month on month increase of 2.63%, and a year-on-year increase of 2.63%. The high support of raw materials has led to an increase in demand for some downstream products, but the supply has remained high, resulting in a sluggish rise in the ethanol market in the future.

On the cost side, the high price of corn fluctuates, and the inventory of aged corn will continue to decline. The demand for breeding and feed production will continue to increase. The overall supply of aged corn will continue to be in a period of shortage, and the supply capacity will continue to decline. Traders are reluctant to sell at low prices. Currently, domestic spring corn has also started to be listed, with spring corn in Hubei, Sichuan and other places starting to increase in quantity, and some early maturing spring corn in Shandong, Henan and other places also being listed sporadically, At present, there is no centralized increase in quantity, and the prices in the sales area remain high. There are temporary positive factors in the cost of ethanol.

On the supply side, the ethanol supply side is mixed.

On the demand side, downstream chemical companies are just in need of procurement, and large ethyl acetate factories are gradually returning to full capacity. Some factories in East China have maintenance plans. The short-term demand for ethanol is mixed.

In the future market forecast, cost and supply support are high, and demand is expected to break through. Ethanol analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic ethanol market may experience strong fluctuations in the short term.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, the 1 # electrolytic manganese market is temporarily stable this week (August 28th to September 4th), and the market price in the East China region was at 13800 yuan/ton on September 4th, with a stable cycle.

In terms of manganese ore: This week, the manganese ore market has been consolidating and operating, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market. Queries for manganese ore in Qinzhou Port have decreased, and some high grade minerals in the market have fewer sources of goods. Some varieties have slightly increased in prices. Tianjin Port’s semi carbonated acid: 32 yuan/ton.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the weekly and monthly electrolytic manganese K-bar chart above, it can be seen that prices have been declining for 5 consecutive months since December 2022. After a slight recovery in May, prices have been declining for 8 consecutive weeks since June, and prices have temporarily stabilized this week.

This week, the electrolytic manganese market is temporarily stable, with mainstream market prices ranging from 12400 to 12500 yuan/ton, which is temporarily stable compared to last week’s market prices. The atmosphere in the domestic market this week remains somewhat wait-and-see. After the weakening of companies’ willingness to support prices, the driving force for market prices to continue to rise is limited. Expectations for the future market have weakened, and the overall market is wait-and-see. After the recent introduction of steel bidding prices by major domestic factories, they have basically complied with market rules, with relatively stable quotations, which has also driven a stable atmosphere in the market. Currently, the atmosphere in various aspects is relatively wait-and-see, and the market is waiting for future guidance on steel bidding prices. In terms of supply and demand, some domestic enterprises reduced production in August, resulting in tight supply. In the future, the market tends to be wait-and-see and will remain temporarily stable in the short term.

Related data:

Customs data shows that the total export volume of unwrought manganese, manganese waste and powder (electrolytic manganese) in June 2023 was approximately 24847.275 tons, an increase of 15.74% month on month and a decrease of 19.20% year on year.

In June 2023, the total import volume of unwrought manganese, manganese waste and powder (electrolytic manganese) was approximately 1520.011 tons, a decrease of 39.2% compared to the previous month and a year-on-year increase of 51.99%.

On September 3rd, the base metal index stood at 1231 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 23.82% from the cycle’s highest point of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 91.74% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

According to the price monitoring of the Business Society, there were 14 commodities in the non-ferrous sector on the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 35th week of 2023 (8.28-9.1), with aluminum (3.65%), dysprosium metal (2.94%), and lead (2.32%) ranking among the top three commodities. There are two products that have decreased compared to the previous month, with nickel (-1.68%) and cobalt (-1.65%) being the top two products in terms of decline. This week’s average increase or decrease was 0.68%.

Price trend

In August, the domestic ABS market fluctuated and strengthened, with overall spot prices rising. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of August 31, the average price of ABS sample products was 10750 yuan/ton, with a+1.90% increase or decrease compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of supply: The ABS industry has recently experienced a high load, with a total operating rate of around 92%, which has increased compared to the previous period. The on-site supply of goods is abundant. The inventory position has increased, reaching over 170000 tons at the end of the month. The supply side generally supports the spot market.

In terms of raw materials, the overall performance of ABS upstream three materials was relatively strong this month. The market situation of raw material acrylonitrile has significantly increased. The price of propylene fluctuates and rises, while the overall cost of acrylonitrile increases; Downstream demand forms support for acrylonitrile; The price of acrylonitrile has significantly increased supported by raw materials and demand.

The price of butadiene has increased this month. At the beginning of the month, the prices of crude oil and naphtha rose, which brought some cost drivers. At the same time, some downstream product prices rose, and there was some support for market demand. In the second half of the month, the prices of external markets increased, and some export manufacturers controlled the quantity and increased prices, leading to a subsequent increase in market quotations. At the same time, news of device maintenance has been released, and it is expected that the domestic butadiene market will continue to be strong in the short term.

From the figure below, it can be seen that the market price of styrene fell first and then rose in August. The main reason for the decline is the weakening of cost support. The reason for the increase is that Lianyungang Petrochemical, Dongming Petrochemical, and Shandong Lihuayi styrene plants have undergone maintenance, resulting in low styrene inventory and a rising market.

In terms of demand: Currently, downstream factories, including the main terminal home appliance industry, have average enthusiasm for stocking. In addition, the downstream operating rate is still at a low level due to factors such as season and power restrictions. After the price increase of ABS, the manufacturer’s acceptance declined, and the procurement operation was cautious, resulting in average overall trading volume.

Future Market Forecast

In August, the upstream three materials of ABS strengthened, providing reasonable cost support for ABS. The construction of petrochemical plants has experienced a narrow increase compared to the previous period, and the accumulation of market inventory is limited. On the demand side, support is weak, and the overall pattern of weak and rigid demand is maintained. It is expected that the ABS market may continue to operate in a stronger direction.

In late August, natural rubber fluctuated slightly and rose. The Shanghai Rubber 01 contract fluctuated from around 13200 yuan/ton to around 13330 yuan/ton, and continued to fluctuate slightly thereafter. It is reported that the spot latex prices in the Chinese market continue to rise slightly, with an average increase of around 100-150 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the trend of natural rubber has fluctuated slightly this month and has risen. Since late August, the spot rubber market in China has fluctuated from around 11760 yuan/ton to around 12100 yuan/ton, an increase of about 2.1%.

Influencing factors:

1. Limited production of new rubber due to rainy production areas

On the supply side, in terms of new rubber production, firstly, during the peak season of global new rubber production, major production areas such as Thailand and Vietnam have been affected by rainfall, resulting in reduced production. Secondly, due to the continuous decline in latex prices in the early stage, the enthusiasm of rubber farmers for cutting rubber has been suppressed. However, the expected increase in demand in the product industry in the near future has improved the enthusiasm compared to the previous stage; Once again, in the previous stage, traders’ imports decreased, and the pressure on rubber imports slowed down to a certain extent. In terms of inventory, the entry speed of spot inventory has slowed down, and the arrival volume of dark glue at the port has decreased. Driven by the improvement in the production of products in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone’s spot glue warehouse, the speed of destocking has accelerated.

2. Expectations for a slight increase in demand during peak season

On the demand side, we are about to enter the “Golden Age”, and downstream product enterprises are just in need of a slight increase. The domestic sales of tires are insufficient, but the demand for foreign trade has increased. The demand for domestic travel and logistics industries continues to release, downstream consumption continues to increase, and the operating rate of product factories continues to be high. The natural rubber market continues to rise slightly, and the sentiment of “buying up rather than buying down” in the market is still relatively obvious. The traditional consumption peak season of “Golden Nine Silver Ten” is approaching, and driven by frequent national policies and measures to promote automobile consumption, tire companies have a certain stock demand. With the rebound in demand for latex products and the increase in raw material prices, natural rubber procurement is more active than in the previous stage, but the amplitude is not very prominent.

Future Market Forecast:

Regarding the future market, recent rainfall in Southeast Asia has had a significant impact on the production of new rubber, and the supply of new rubber has slowed down. The current export situation of tire enterprises is good, and factories are operating at a high level. The “Golden Nine Silver Ten” consumption peak season is approaching, and the natural rubber market has some positive demand support. Analysis suggests that natural rubber, which has been at a low market level for a long time, may experience fluctuations and upward trends in the future market driven by the aforementioned factors. However, the demand situation is only showing a positive trend and has not entered a stage of significant increase, so it is inevitable to experience further fluctuations. There has been a certain upward trend in prices recently, and there may be downward pressure in the short term.

According to data from Business News Agency, as of August 30th, the average quoted price of maleic anhydride was 7220.00 yuan/ton (including tax), an increase of 11.42% from 6480.00 yuan/ton on August 1st.

Business agency: Strong upward trend of n-butane in August, driving up the domestic maleic anhydride market

On August 30th, the maleic anhydride commodity index was 68.01, a decrease of 0.57 points from yesterday, a decrease of 59.14% from the highest point in the cycle of 166.43 points (2021-12-15), and a 32.88% increase from the lowest point of 51.18 points on April 14th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

In August, the downstream resin market followed the rise of the maleic anhydride market, and the resin downstream just needed replenishment. The resin manufacturers’ shipments were average, but the replenishment of maleic anhydride was limited. In mid August, the price of raw material n-butane skyrocketed from around 4500 yuan/ton to 5700 yuan/ton, and the price of maleic anhydride factories continued to rise; At the end of August, the market for n-butane fell back to 4700 yuan/ton, while the market for maleic anhydride slightly declined. As of the 30th, the solid anhydride in Shandong region is around 6900 yuan/ton, Jiangsu region is around 6900 yuan/ton, and South China region is around 7500 yuan/ton.

In August, crude oil emerged from a trend of rising and falling, and in the first half of the year, the market continued to rise amidst supply concerns and the positive trend of the peak oil consumption season. Brent crude oil topped $87 per barrel, while WTI crude oil approached $83, reaching a nearly 9-month high. Afterwards, with the deterioration of macro data, the market turned sharply downwards, and near the end of the month, the WTI fell below $80. Under the combined effect of OPEC+production control and weak economic data in oil producing countries, the supply-demand game intensifies, and the market shifts into a narrow range of fluctuations.

On the upstream side, the pure benzene market increased by 4.45% in August, and as of August 30th, the price of pure benzene was around 7778 yuan/ton. In August, hydrogenated benzene followed the rise of the pure benzene market, increasing by 6.09%. As of August 30th, the price of pure benzene was around 7833 yuan/ton. In August, the market price of n-butane increased from 4700 yuan/ton to 5700 yuan/ton, and dropped to the beginning level at the end of the month. As of August 30th, the price in Shandong was around 4700 yuan/ton.

Business Society’s maleic anhydride product analysts believe that the recent surge in raw material n-butane has led to a significant decline, limited cost support for maleic anhydride, and a decrease in the prices of main factories and distributors. Downstream pursuit of high prices is cautious, and replenishment is mainly based on demand procurement. Maleic anhydride manufacturers have limited new orders. It is expected that there will still be a downward trend in maleic anhydride in the near future.