According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic ethanol market rose in a narrow range in August. From August 1st to 29th, the average price of domestic ethanol producers increased from 6637 yuan/ton to 6812 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 2.64% during the cycle and a year-on-year increase of 2.44%.

At the beginning of the month, many manufacturers have gradually resumed production, with stable prices being the main focus. Traders are mostly in a wait-and-see mood, and the market situation has been sorted out and running.

In mid month, there were slight differences between regions in the domestic ethanol market, with different periods of increase. Henan region had more orders, inventory decreased, and companies had maintenance plans. Under the influence of positive factors such as a significant increase in corn prices, prices rose significantly. Large factories in Northeast Heilongjiang have limited shipments of food, resulting in a slight increase in prices.

In the second half of this month, there were slight regional differences in the domestic ethanol market, with high raw material prices and limited support from ethanol in stock. As a result, the domestic ethanol market prices remained firm.

In terms of cost, as we enter August, the domestic corn market is at a high level of consolidation. It will still take some time for the new season corn to go public. The high temperature and rainy weather in China have affected transportation, resulting in a decrease in policy investment. There are gradually fewer high-quality grain sources available for circulation, and trading entities are reluctant to sell at high prices. Feed demand is still weak, and the expectation of a high yield of the new season corn is relatively sufficient. There is a long short game. In the middle of the year, the impact of rainfall caused by the typhoon gradually eased in the production and sales areas, and the arrival volume of corn in ports and deep processing areas continued to increase. After effectively replenishing the corn inventory of ports and deep processing enterprises, the corn purchase price was lowered, causing high volatility in the domestic corn market. The cost side of ethanol is a favorable factor.

In the first ten days of the month, the maintenance of domestic ethanol supply increased: Zhaodong Edible resumed around August 15th, but production was limited; The 500000 ton unit in Fukang, Jilin was shut down on August 10th. Longhe and Romet in East China have plans to start production after the raw materials arrive at the port in the middle of the year. Henan’s construction has decreased, and Houyuan has maintenance plans in early August. As of the end of August, the Fukang device has been shut down, and the Tianyu device has resumed in mid August; Zhaodong Food resumed around August 15th, but production was limited. Longhe and Romet have plans to start production after the raw materials arrive at the port in the middle of the year. Henan Houyuan Device Storage and Maintenance Plan. The ethanol supply is mixed.

On the demand side, downstream chemical companies are just in need of procurement, and large ethyl acetate factories are gradually returning to full capacity. At the end of August, some factories in East China have maintenance plans. The short-term demand for ethanol is mixed.

In the future market forecast, cost and supply support are high, and demand is expected to break through. Ethanol analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic ethanol market may experience strong fluctuations in the short term.

The price of plasticizer DOTP increased significantly in August

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of August 28th, the price of DOTP was 12260 yuan/ton, an increase of 15.01% compared to August 1st, which was 10660 yuan/ton. June August is the traditional off-season for plasticizers, but this year’s off-season is not dull. Since mid June, the price of DOTP has bottomed out and rebounded. In August, the price of plasticizer DOTP has significantly increased, reaching a new high for the year.

The price of isooctanol continued to rise sharply in August

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of isooctanol on August 28th was 12200 yuan/ton, an increase of 22.20% compared to the price of 9983.33 yuan/ton on August 1st. The planned production of domestic isooctanol units and unexpected vehicle pick-up have led to a tight supply of isooctanol, low inventory of isooctanol, and an upward shift in market focus. In August, the price of isooctanol continued to skyrocket. The price of isooctanol has skyrocketed, and the cost of plasticizer DOP raw materials has increased. As the price of isooctanol has risen to a high level, buying sentiment towards pursuing higher prices has become cautious. With the restart of the isooctanol plant, the supply expectation of the isooctanol market is loose, and the sustained rise of isooctanol in the future is limited in support.

PTA prices fell first and then rose in August

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the PTA price on August 28th was 6081.36 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.75% compared to the PTA price on August 1st, which was 6036.36 yuan/ton. Recently, the supply and demand contradiction has eased after PTA suppliers released maintenance plans, while international crude oil futures prices have fallen, easing the cost pressure on PTA. In the future, the supply and demand expectations for PTA in September are expected to decrease, and the accumulation of PTA may not be as expected. However, as the terminal consumes pre inventory and is not in a hurry to purchase, there is still upward pressure on PTA prices in the short term. The cost of raw materials for plasticizer DOTP is expected to increase in September, and there is still momentum for the price increase of plasticizer DOTP in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of August 28th, the price increases of various products in the plastic sector compared to July 1st, from high to low, are PVC (12.48%), PP (wire drawing) (7.28%), and LLDPE (4.89%). Since July, as the plastic industry approaches the traditional peak season, the market has started to heat up, and various products in the plastic sector have seen a rise, with plastic futures rising at the same time. In the two months since July, the plastic industry has been dominated by Lido. On the macro level, inflation in the United States has cooled beyond expectations, the necessity for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates has decreased, and concerns about economic recession have eased. In terms of cost, the seasonal peak demand from refineries and OPEC production cuts in oil producing countries have led to a strengthening of international crude oil prices. At the same time, downstream plastic enterprises are gradually increasing their stocking, improving consumption follow-up, and enhancing market momentum. Under the dual support of rebounding consumption and high costs, the prices of plastic futures and three materials have fluctuated and risen.

Future expectations

Analysts from Business Society’s plasticizer product data believe that although August is the traditional off-season for plasticizers, the upstream and downstream of the plasticizer industry chain are both rising against the trend. In terms of raw materials, in August, the production of isooctanol was at a low level, and the supply of isooctanol was insufficient. The price of isooctanol continued to rise sharply, alleviating the supply-demand contradiction of PTA and weakening the support for PTA increase. However, the overall cost of DOTP raw materials for plasticizer products increased significantly; The downstream plastic futures market has rebounded, and the demand for plasticizers has rebounded; The operating rate of plasticizer enterprises is low, and the supply of plasticizers is tight. In the future, as the peak season approaches, the demand for plasticizers is expected to rebound. However, in September, upstream and downstream enterprises of plasticizers are expected to resume construction, and the supply of raw materials such as isooctanol and plasticizer DOTP is expected to increase. Both supply and demand are expected to increase, and the support for the rise of plasticizers is weakened; The supply of isooctanol has increased, the support for the rise of isooctanol has weakened, and the expected high price of raw material isooctanol has fallen; Downstream customers have a low acceptance of high prices. As the supply of plasticizers increases, the downward pressure on plasticizers increases. It is expected that the price of plasticizer DOTP will fall back from a high point in the future.

According to data monitored by Business Society, as of August 25th, the average price of domestic industrial grade premium cyclohexane was 7066.67 yuan/ton, which is stable compared to the same period last week. The overall market supply and demand are balanced, and shipments are currently slow.

This week, the market price of cyclohexane has been operating in a narrow range, with the mainstream price around 7066.67 yuan/ton. Compared to the same period last week, the price has remained stable, with mainstream manufacturers maintaining a quotation range of around 7000 yuan/ton and a stable operating rate. Downstream demand procurement is the main focus, and the negotiation atmosphere is flat.

Chemical Index: On August 24th, the chemical index reached 900 points, an increase of 4 points from yesterday, a decrease of 35.71% from the highest point of 1400 points in the cycle (2021-10-23), and a 50.50% increase from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

Cyclohexane analysts from Business Society believe that in the short term, the stable operation of the cyclohexane market is the main trend, with a narrow range leaning towards strong operation.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of domestic ammonium sulfate market was 990 yuan/ton on August 18th, and 926 yuan/ton on August 24th. This week, the domestic ammonium sulfate market price fell by 6.40%.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic ammonium sulfate market price has significantly decreased this week. This week, ammonium sulfate continued its previous week’s trend, with prices dropping from high levels. Recently, the international market for ammonium sulfate has performed poorly, with a significant price decline, which has a negative impact on the domestic market. Downstream compound fertilizer enterprises have increased their inquiries, but downstream and distributors have a resistance towards high prices. The trading volume in the ammonium sulfate market is limited, and the trading focus has declined. As of August 24th, the mainstream market quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Hebei region is around 850-900 yuan/ton. The mainstream factory quotation for domestic ammonium sulfate in Shandong is around 900-960 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Analysts from Business Society’s ammonium sulfate market believe that the recent trend of ammonium sulfate market is weak, and market transactions are average. Although the demand for compound fertilizer enterprises has increased, the international market is weak and falling, and the domestic wait-and-see mentality is relatively strong. It is expected that the price of ammonium sulfate will continue to decline in the short term.

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of the Business Society, starting from mid August, the terminal rigid demand supports and the hydrogen peroxide market continues to operate at a high level. On August 14th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 1350 yuan/ton. On August 23rd, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 1423 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 5.43%.

Lido Supports Hydrogen Peroxide Market Continuously Rising

Since August 14th, some hydrogen peroxide manufacturers have not yet started up, and the supply is still in a tight state. In addition, the demand for hydrogen peroxide purchased by hydrogen peroxide terminal caprolactam manufacturers has improved, supported by positive factors. After a sharp rise in the hydrogen peroxide market, it has been operating at a high level. As of August 23rd, the mainstream quotation for hydrogen peroxide is 1400 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton compared to August 14th. Among them, Shandong Mingshui Hydrogen Peroxide is quoted at 1400 yuan/ton, and Anhui Quansheng Chemical Hydrogen Peroxide is quoted at 1400 yuan/ton.

Li Bing, a chemical analyst at Business Society, believes that the market for hydrogen peroxide will continue to operate at a high level due to the bullish outlook and acceptable terminal demand.