According to data monitoring by Business Society, as of August 10, 2023, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate ore in China was around 856 yuan/ton. Compared with August 6, 2023 (reference price of 868 yuan/ton), the price was reduced by 12 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.38%.

From the data monitoring chart of the Business Society, it can be seen that this week (8.06-8.10), the overall market situation of mid to high-end grade phosphorus ore in China showed a slight decline. At present, the overall trading volume in the phosphate ore field is average, with limited downstream new orders. The weak downstream demand at the end provides limited market support for phosphate ore, and the current market shipment of phosphate ore is not as expected. Within this week, some mining companies in some regions in China have slightly lowered the price of phosphate ore, with a decrease of around 10-20 yuan/ton. As of August 10th, the domestic market price of 30 grade phosphate ore is around 750-950 yuan/ton. The specific price may vary depending on factors such as the original ore specifications, powder to lump ratio, and transportation conditions. The specific details need to be negotiated through actual orders.

Prediction and Analysis of the Future Market Trend of Phosphate Rock

At present, the overall phosphorus ore market has been operating at a weak and low level for a period of time. The industry in the phosphorus ore field is highly optimistic about rising prices. Although the terminal demand is average, the recovery of the downstream yellow phosphorus and phosphoric acid market still gives confidence to the industry. Therefore, the risk of a sustained downward trend in the phosphorus ore market is relatively small. The phosphorus ore data analyst from the Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic phosphorus ore market will mostly remain stable and consolidate, The specific trend still needs to pay more attention to the changes in news on the supply and demand side.

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price trend of cryolite in Henan region is stable. On August 7th, the average market price in Henan region was 7825 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton compared to the average price of 7850 yuan/ton on August 1st, a decrease of 0.32%.

quotations analysis

The price of cryolite has slightly decreased, and the manufacturer’s quotation has remained stable with little movement. The upstream construction of cryolite remains unchanged, and raw material prices have decreased. The pressure on production costs of cryolite has slightly weakened. Manufacturers maintain rational inventory and actively ship. Downstream, they follow up on the purchase of high cryolite as needed. Some manufacturers adjust their prices slightly based on their own shipment situation, and the cryolite market is negotiated for operation. As of August 7th, the factory quotation for cryolite in Shandong region is 7000-8600 yuan/ton; The factory quotation for cryolite in Henan region is between 7200-8900 yuan/ton.

The upstream fluorite market continues to remain stable, with an average market price of 3056.25 yuan/ton as of August 7th, which is unchanged from the price of 3056.25 yuan/ton as of August 1st. The current situation of the domestic fluorite industry still exists, and the operating rate of enterprises is maintained, with normal spot supply. Mining enterprises are facing safety and environmental requirements, making it difficult to improve the operation of fluorite mines. The shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises, and downstream enterprises have serious resistance to high priced raw materials, The price trend of fluorite is mainly weak and stable.

The downstream aluminum market is fluctuating and declining. On August 7th, the aluminum price was around 18506.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.48% compared to the price of 18596.67 yuan/ton on August 1st. In the off-season of downstream consumption, the operating rate is low, the overall demand is limited, the market trading atmosphere is average, and the situation of destocking is not ideal. The aluminum price trend is consolidating and declining, and there is insufficient support for cryolite.

Future Market Forecast

The start of raw material production is maintained, with acceptable upstream support. Cryolite enterprises maintain active shipments, while downstream parties follow up as needed. The overall market trading atmosphere is average, and there is a stalemate between supply and demand on the market. It is expected that the cryolite market will consolidate and operate in the future, and specific attention will be paid to changes in manufacturer inventory in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of August 8th, the average price quoted by domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid enterprises was 3875.00 yuan/ton, which is unchanged compared to August 1st and a decrease of 3.93% compared to the same period last year.

Since August, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market has been operating steadily. Recently, the price of raw material sulfuric acid has risen, and the market for raw material methanol has narrowed down. The cost support has been strengthened, with downstream procurement being mainly based on demand. Enterprise shipments are still acceptable, market trading is orderly, and the market is temporarily stable and wait-and-see. The mainstream quotation of enterprises is around 3900 yuan/ton.

Business Society formic acid analysts believe that there is currently some support in the cost side, with downstream procurement being the main focus. It is expected that the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market will remain stable in the short term, and more attention needs to be paid to market news guidance.

Price trend

In early August, the domestic POM market continued to show a positive trend, with spot prices continuing to rise. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of August 7th, the mixed price of domestic POM was 13200 yuan/ton, a decrease of+6.24% compared to the price level at the beginning of July.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

According to the analysis system chart of the commodity market of the Business Society, the recent market for formaldehyde has mainly fluctuated slightly, with an increase last week. The price of raw material methanol has shown an upward trend, but downstream sheet metal factories have poor demand, and market trading sentiment is average. Formaldehyde manufacturers are shipping normally, and the market is slightly rising with costs.

On the supply side:

The operating rate of domestic POM enterprises remained high in early August, but due to factors such as unplanned maintenance, the industry load decreased by nearly 8% to 86% last week. Although the high load situation continues, the initial inventory is low, and most enterprises have no inventory pressure, and even have negative inventory oversold situations. In addition, some other enterprises have maintenance plans in the later stage, and the current POM supply is still tight.

In terms of demand:

At present, the operating level of downstream POM enterprises in China is not high, but due to the stimulation of tight supply, there is a speculative atmosphere in the market. The enthusiasm for stocking is acceptable, and the transaction position of the order is high. Overall, the demand side’s support for POM spot prices is moderate.

Future Market Forecast

In early August, the POM market continued to rise rapidly. The operating rate of domestic polymerization plants has decreased, and the shortage of goods on site has worsened. There is currently no industry inventory pressure, and suppliers have strong support for spot goods. On the demand side, it is expected that due to the impact of high temperatures, power restrictions, and tropical cyclones in the later stage, the operating rate of terminal enterprises may decline. However, the release of consumption in the short term may be boosted by recent POM enterprise maintenance plans. Traders’ confidence remains strong, and the sentiment of speculation on the market remains strong. It is expected that the POM market will continue to strengthen in a narrow range in the future.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the price of caustic soda has slightly increased this week. At the beginning of the week, the average market price was 3262.5 yuan/ton, while on the weekend, the average market price was 3287.5 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.77% and a year-on-year decrease of 26.4%. Maintain an upward trend this week.

Upstream caustic soda

According to the Commodity Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of caustic soda has stabilized this week. At the beginning of the week, the average market price in Shandong was 737.4 yuan/ton, and on the weekend, the average market price in Shandong was 742 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.62% and a decrease of 31.3% compared to the same period last year.

Analysts from Business Society believe that the overall price of caustic soda has increased this week, and the supply of parking and maintenance services by manufacturers in the northwest region has decreased. However, the actual downstream demand has recently been purchased on demand, and the purchasing enthusiasm is average. The supply and demand game, whether the price can rise in the later stage depends on the market transaction situation. Overall, the short-term or sustained consolidation of the price of caustic soda depends on the downstream market demand.