Product name: Yellow phosphorus

Latest price on August 22nd: 25100 yuan/ton

Key analysis points: On August 22nd, the domestic yellow phosphorus market price rose. The production of yellow phosphorus in enterprises is relatively stable, and the on-site inventory is relatively tight. At present, market confidence is good, and manufacturers have a strong reluctance to sell. They mainly place preliminary orders and do not provide external quotations. They will discuss the actual orders in detail. Downstream restocking is just needed, and the center of gravity of the transaction price for new orders in the market has shifted upwards.

It is expected that the price of yellow phosphorus will be relatively strong in the short term, and we will pay attention to changes in the news.

Recent price trends of isooctanol

According to the Commodity Analysis System of the Business Society, the market price of isooctanol in Shandong Province has slightly increased this week. This week, the average price of isooctanol in the mainstream market of Shandong region increased from 11400.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 11760.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 3.16%. Weekend prices increased by 40.56% year-on-year. On August 21, the isooctanol commodity index was 86.18, a decrease of 0.29 points compared to yesterday, a decrease of 37.32% from the highest point of 137.50 points in the cycle (2021-08-08), and an increase of 145.18% from the lowest point of 35.15 points on February 1, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Upstream support is good, while downstream demand increases

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream manufacturers of isooctanol in Shandong have fluctuated this week, with average inventory levels.

From the upstream raw material market of isooctanol, the propylene market fluctuated and rose this week, with prices rising from 6788.25 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 6813.25 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 0.37%. Weekend prices fell by 3.09% year-on-year. The upstream raw material market prices have slightly increased, with good cost support. Affected by the supply and demand side, it has a positive impact on the price of isooctanol.

From the downstream market of isooctanol, the DOP market price has slightly increased this week. The price of DOP increased from 11516.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 11608.33 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 0.80%. Weekend prices increased by 27.39% year-on-year. Downstream DOP prices have slightly increased, and downstream customers are actively increasing their purchases of isooctanol.

Future prospects

In late August, the Shandong isooctanol market may experience slight fluctuations and gains. The upstream propylene market has slightly increased, with good cost support. The downstream DOP market has slightly increased, and downstream demand has increased. Business Society Isooctanol analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic isooctanol market may experience slight fluctuations and increases due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

This week, the lead market (8.11-8.18) fluctuated and rose, with the average price in the domestic market at 15780 yuan/ton at the beginning of last week and 15940 yuan/ton at the beginning of this week, up 1.01%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-pillar indicates the range of rise and fall, and the recent market trend is relatively strong, with the lead ingot market rising for six consecutive weeks.

The futures market fluctuated and rose this week, and the Shanghai lead continued its high volatility trend. Fundamentally speaking, the production of electrolytic lead increased in July, and the start of construction in August showed little change compared to July. Therefore, the supply of primary lead remained incremental in August. In terms of recycled lead, there have been recent enterprise maintenance but also resumption of production, so the change in production is not significant. In terms of demand, the weather has turned hot, and downstream demand has slightly improved compared to the previous period. Recently, overall battery inventory has declined, and the operating rate of battery companies has also slightly increased, leading to a rebound in purchasing enthusiasm. Overall, the supply and demand of the lead ingot market have increased, and the downstream peak season has begun to show signs. The market’s expectations for the future market have improved, and market prices have steadily increased. It is expected that the lead ingot market will operate in a stable, medium to strong manner in the short term.

On August 18th, the base metal index was 1196 points, an increase of 11 points from yesterday, a decrease of 25.99% from the highest point of 1616 points in the cycle (2022-03-09), and an increase of 86.29% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, there were a total of 17 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that rose month on month on the commodity price rise and fall list in the 33rd week of 2023 (8.14-8.18), with antimony (2.61%), nickel (1.28%), and lead (1.21%) ranking among the top three commodities. There are three products that have decreased compared to the previous month, with cobalt (-2.30%), tin (-1.84%), and zinc (-1.22%) ranking among the top three products. This week’s average increase or decrease was 0.42%.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of August 15th, the average price quoted by domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid enterprises was 3875.00 yuan/ton, which is unchanged compared to last Friday (August 11th) and an increase of 2.88% compared to the same period last year.

Recently, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market has continued to operate steadily, with the focus of market negotiations at around 3900 yuan/ton, without significant fluctuations. Recently, the trend of raw material sulfuric acid has risen, while the market for raw material methanol has fluctuated slightly. The cost support has increased, and the enthusiasm for downstream inquiries and procurement is still good. The main focus of market negotiations is on stability, with the continuation of transactions and demand.

Business Society formic acid analysts believe that the current cost side has increased, and downstream procurement is mainly based on demand. The market has a wait-and-see mentality, and it is expected that the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market will operate steadily in the short term. More attention should be paid to market news guidance.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic BDO market is slowly rising. From August 8th to 15th, the average price of domestic BDO increased from 11257 yuan/ton to 11414 yuan/ton, with a weekly price increase of 1.44%, a month on month increase of 1.52%, and a year-on-year increase of 14.14%. At present, the industry’s capacity utilization rate is low, the market’s spot supply is tight, production enterprises are reluctant to sell, and online bidding is on the high side to support the market. Downstream rigid demand procurement is the main focus, and under cost pressure, it tends to be cautious, suppressing market growth.

On the supply side, BDO’s supply side is mixed.

On the cost side, raw material calcium carbide: The manufacturer’s inventory is average, and the upstream blue charcoal market is consolidating at a low level, while the downstream PVC market is consolidating at a high level. The factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region has slightly increased. On August 15th, the benchmark price of calcium carbide in Shangshang Society was 3033.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.82% compared to the beginning of this month (2950.00 yuan/ton). In terms of methanol, costs and demand are improving, and the methanol market is experiencing high volatility. As of 15:00 on August 15th, the domestic methanol Taicang price is 2365 yuan/ton. The recent consolidation and operation of calcium carbide market and slight improvement in methanol market are expected to lead to a breakthrough in BDO cost.

On the demand side, the follow-up of terminal demand is relatively average, suppressing the enthusiasm of downstream industries to start construction. At the same time, some downstream companies such as PBT and GBL have raised prices in response to fluctuations in raw materials, but the industry still faces losses and strong resistance to high prices. Downstream continuation of contract follow-up, spot sporadic small order procurement. Short term bearish factors on the demand side of BDO.

In the future market forecast, there is still some support on the supply side, but the downstream end has limited ability to accept high prices. Contract orders are mainly followed up, while spot orders are generally followed up, or market trends may be suppressed. BDO analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic BDO market situation will be mainly on a wait-and-see basis.