Analysis: On May 23rd, the market for butyl acetate rose, with an increase of 1.97% compared to yesterday. The mainstream quotation range is between 7400 to 7600 yuan/ton. The main reason for the increase is driven by the cost side, with the upstream n-butanol market stopping its decline and partially rising. Another raw material, acetic acid, has improved and continues to fluctuate at high levels. The cost transmission effect has driven downstream butyl esters higher. However, the supply and demand fundamentals are still weak, and market transactions are not good. The enthusiasm for downstream market entry is not high, and supply and demand maintain a basic balance.

Future market forecast: The cost side is positive in the short term, or it may be fulfilled, while the supply and demand fundamentals are weak and difficult to improve. It is expected that butyl acetate will continue to rise weakly. In the later stage, the adjustment pattern may continue to be maintained.

Domestic cobalt prices fluctuated and consolidated this week

According to data monitoring from Business Society, as of May 22, cobalt prices were 255800 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.16% compared to May 15, when cobalt prices were 256200 yuan/ton; The cobalt price decreased by 0.08% compared to 256000 yuan/ton on May 11th. This week, the cobalt market fluctuated and consolidated, with cobalt prices slightly fluctuating and falling.

Export surge and rising demand

According to data from China Automobile Association, in the first quarter, China exported 248000 new energy vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 1.1 times; The cumulative export of power battery enterprises’ batteries has reached 25.8 GWh. In April, China exported 100000 new energy vehicles, an increase of 28.6% month on month and 8.4 times year-on-year; From January to April, China exported 348000 new energy vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 1.7 times. According to data from the China Passenger Car Association, in April, China exported 91000 new energy passenger vehicles, an increase of 1028.5% year-on-year and 29.4% month on month, accounting for 31% of passenger car exports; From January to April, China exported a total of 310000 new energy passenger vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 170%. The export of new energy vehicles has surged, and the proportion of exports has increased. The demand for new energy vehicles has increased, leading to an increase in demand in the cobalt market.

According to data released by the General Administration of Customs, in the first quarter, the export of electric vehicles reached 64.75 billion yuan, an increase of 122.3%; The proportion of China’s automobile exports has increased by 5.1%, reaching 43.9%. Driven by multiple factors such as strong demand in foreign electric vehicles and energy storage markets, China’s lithium battery exports in the first quarter reached 109.79 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 94.3%. The export of electric vehicles and lithium batteries has surged, and the demand for cobalt in the market has steadily increased.

Overview and outlook

According to Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at Business Society, the export volume of new energy vehicles and lithium batteries has surged, and the demand for cobalt in the market has steadily increased. Cobalt prices are supported by rising prices, but in terms of supply and demand relations, the cobalt market has sufficient supply, and the supply and demand in the cobalt market are relatively balanced. The support for cobalt price increases is limited, and the downward pressure is weakened. It is expected that cobalt prices will fluctuate and consolidate in the future.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of 50% potassium sulfate at the beginning of this week was 3683 yuan/ton, and the price of 50% potassium sulfate at the end of this week was 3466 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.88% in price.

The price of potassium sulfate in the domestic market declined, mainly because the price of raw potassium chloride declined, thus affecting the sales price of potassium sulfate. At present, the factory price of 50% potassium sulfate powder from Mannheim is mostly 3100-3200 yuan/ton, and the factory price of 52% of potassium sulfate powder is mostly 3200-3500 yuan/ton. The price in the southern market is still higher than that in the northern market, but in the case of obvious differences, some northern sources of goods are still supplied to the southern market.

The overall trend of domestic compound fertilizer factories is stable, with operating rates maintained at around 40%. In addition, with factories mainly producing high nitrogen fertilizers recently, the procurement of potassium fertilizer raw materials is not active, and the prices of raw materials are unstable. Therefore, procurement is mainly based on demand.

Forecast: The domestic potash fertilizer market is still in a weak downward state, without good support, and the market price is expected to be dominated by weak consolidation trend.

Price trend

Last week, there was a decline in the domestic PA6 market, and spot prices were generally reduced. According to data monitoring from Business Society, as of May 16th, the average factory price of PA6 in China was 13950 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.18% compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

It can be seen from the figure above that the market price of caprolactam fell slightly last week. The price of raw material pure benzene has been lowered, resulting in insufficient cost support. At present, caprolactam market supply is relatively stable, and supply and demand are relatively balanced. Downstream demand performance is insufficient, and procurement is more cautious, maintaining a wait-and-see attitude.

On the supply side:

Recently, the overall load of domestic PA6 production enterprises has remained relatively stable, operating in a narrow range of around 70%. The market supply is stable, there is an increase in inventory positions, and the supplier’s support for spot goods is average. The factory price pricing is narrow and loose.

In terms of demand: downstream, the weaving and spinning industries have a moderate load. The actual trading is generally concentrated in low-end spot goods. The overall atmosphere of stock preparation on the site is cautious, with buyers resisting high priced sources, and the overall demand for PA6 chips is average.

Future Market Forecast

In mid May, the PA6 market experienced a slight decline. The load of domestic polymerization plants is stable, and the supply remains sufficient. In terms of demand, it is average, and stocking tends towards low-priced sources. The price of caprolactam fell back, and the narrow range of PA6 cost end support weakened. Market long short game, it is expected that the PA6 market may be dominated by weak consolidation and operation in the short term.

In the first half of May, the market for chloroform significantly declined. According to data from Business Society, as of May 15th, the price of trichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2075 yuan/ton, a significant decrease of 11.70% from 2350 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The price of raw material methanol has decreased, while the cost of trichloromethane has slightly decreased; The peak season for downstream refrigerants has come to an end, with weak demand for R22 and weak support for chloroform; Methane chloride production fluctuated slightly, while the pressure on the supply side of trichloromethane continued; Trichloromethane market is weak and declining.

In the first half of May, there was a slight fluctuation in the operation of methane chloride plants.

In the first half of May, the price of raw material methanol decreased, while the cost of dichloromethane slightly decreased. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 15th, the spot price of methanol was 2325 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.02% from 2423 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

After entering May, the refrigeration market entered the end of the traditional peak season. The parking and maintenance prices of some downstream refrigerant R22 enterprises are temporarily stable, and in addition, the total production quota of R22 will be reduced by 19% to 181800 tons in 2023. The support for trichloromethane will once again weaken after the peak season.

According to methane chloride data analysts from Business Society, although the demand for trichloromethane is currently weak and there is pressure on the supply side, it is expected that the trichloromethane market will be weak and consolidate in the short term.