April plasticizer product DOTP fell weakly

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of April 28th, the average price of DOTP was 9811 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.67% compared to the average price of 10080 yuan/ton on April 1st. Plasticizer enterprises have started construction at a low level, raw material prices have decreased, market transactions have been cold, and the actual transaction price center has shifted downwards. In April, DOTP prices fell weakly.

Market situation of raw material products

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of April 28th, the price of isooctanol was 9157.14 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.88% compared to the price of isooctanol on April 1st, which was 9428.57 yuan/ton. In April, the production of isooctanol enterprises was at a low level, and the supply of isooctanol decreased. The production of plasticizer enterprises was temporarily stable at a low level, and the weak consolidation of isooctanol will be the main trend in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of April 28th, the price of PTA was 6180 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 3.51% compared to the price of 6404.55 yuan/ton on April 1st. In April, PTA prices fluctuated and fell in an “M-shaped” pattern; Crude oil prices have fluctuated and fallen, and PTA cost support has weakened. In April, the PTA market fell weakly.

Import and export data statistics

According to import and export data released by the customs, the cumulative export volume of DOTP from January to March 2023 was 1091.7 tons, a year-on-year surge. The cumulative import volume of DOTP from January to March 2023 was 7687.63 tons, a significant decrease year-on-year. In 2023, DOTP exports increased, imports decreased, and the import volume far exceeded the export volume. The domestic plasticizer market had sufficient supply, and the downward pressure on DOTP increased.

Future expectations

Analysts from Business Society’s plasticizer product data believe that in April, the price of DOTP plasticizer raw material isooctanol fluctuated and fell, while PTA prices fluctuated and fell, resulting in a decrease in raw material costs. On the demand side, downstream demand is weak. Overall, the demand for cost reduction is weak, and the market for plasticizer DOTP is weak and declining.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the average market price of 55% powdered monoammonium was 3220 yuan/ton on April 1, 3037 yuan/ton on April 27, and the market price of monoammonium phosphate fell 5.67% this month.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the average price of 64% of diammonium phosphate in the market was 3987 yuan/ton on April 1, and 3893 yuan/ton on April 27. The market price of diammonium phosphate fell 2.36% this month.

2、 Market analysis

The price of monoammonium phosphate continued to decline this month. The prices of raw phosphorus ore and sulfur have fallen, weakening cost support. Downstream demand is sluggish, with few new orders and sporadic purchases, and the focus of market transactions is constantly shifting downwards. As of April 27th, the market price of 55 powdered ammonium in Hubei region is around 2900-3000 yuan/ton, while the market price of 55 powdered ammonium in Sichuan region is around 3000-3050 yuan/ton, with actual negotiations being the main focus.

The price of diammonium phosphate fluctuated and fell this month. The prices of raw materials continue to weaken, and cost support is weak. Spring is coming to an end, and downstream demand is light, with a small amount of procurement as the main focus, and market trading performance is average. As of April 27th, 64% of the diammonium market in Hubei region is priced at around 3900 yuan/ton, 64% of the diammonium market in Shandong region is priced at around 4000 yuan/ton, and 64% of the mainstream transaction prices in North China are priced at 3850-3930 yuan/ton. The actual transaction is negotiated.

The raw material phosphate ore market is generally weak and moving downwards this month in the domestic phosphate ore market. In early April, due to the downward trend of the yellow phosphorus market in the downstream of the industrial chain, downstream operations began at a reduced rate. The demand for phosphate ore in some regions of China became loose, and the wait-and-see atmosphere on the market was strong. Some mining companies lowered the prices of mid to high-end grade phosphate ore by around 10-30 yuan/ton. Subsequently, in mid April, the phosphorus ore market as a whole remained weak and stable, and towards the end of the month, some mining companies in Sichuan region adjusted their phosphorus ore prices downwards by around 10-20 yuan/ton.

The market for raw sulfur has continued to decline in domestic sulfur prices this month. The sulfur market in East China continues to be weak and downward, with domestic refineries operating normally and market supply stable. The end industry has entered a off-season, with weak downstream demand and poor refinery sales. Enterprise quotations have been lowered to stimulate shipments, but downstream purchasing is limited and the market lacks positive support, resulting in a weak sulfur trend.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Analysts from the Business Society believe that the recent trend in raw material prices has been poor, and the cost support for ammonium phosphate is weak. Downstream demand continues to be sluggish, and shippers have a strong willingness to ship. The market price of ammonium phosphate is expected to continue to decline in the short term under the influence of both cost and demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the PP market rose and then fell in April, with the overall decline of various wire drawing brands. As of April 26th, the mainstream quoted price of T30S (wire drawing) by domestic producers and traders is around 7721.43 yuan/ton, with a decrease of -1.33% compared to the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industry chain: In terms of upstream, the Shandong market for propylene in April rose first and then declined. In the early days, due to the significant increase in international crude oil and the impact of cost factors, propylene rebounded and showed a significant upward trend. Subsequently, downstream resistance to high prices intensified, and the wait-and-see atmosphere became more intense. In addition, the decline in crude oil led to a broad decline in propylene in the second half of the month, and companies allowed profits to ship. The industry has high expectations for a decline in the future, and in the atmosphere of buying up rather than buying down, it is expected that the short-term trend of propylene will continue to decline weakly.

Propylene prices rose first and then fell, providing unstable support for the PP cost side. In terms of industry load, the operating situation of PP enterprises in April was relatively narrow, and the overall industry load fluctuated between 80% -75%, with overall stable shipments. There is sufficient supply of goods on site, with a slight decrease in inventory, but supply pressure still exists. In terms of demand, the operating rates of downstream plastic weaving and film materials enterprises are fluctuating, and the stocking situation of terminal enterprises is average, with on-demand procurement being the main focus.

In terms of fiber materials, according to data monitored by Business Society, as of April 26th, the spot price of domestic fiber PP has risen and then fallen. The mainstream quoted price of domestic producers and traders Z30S (fiber) is around 7712.50 yuan/ton, which is a 0% increase or decrease compared to the average price at the beginning of the month, and a 13.83% decrease compared to the same period last year. This month, the downstream non-woven fabric enterprises, the main force of PP fiber materials, have continuously adjusted their load to a low and narrow range, with an overall operating rate of around 30%. In the first ten days, fiber materials rose due to the favorable cost side, but the weak demand from end enterprises dragged the market. The digestion speed of non-woven end products was poor, and the enterprise’s replenishment operation of fiber PP lagged behind. It is expected to maintain a weak and stable pattern in the short term.

In terms of melt blown materials, the melt blown PP market continued to decline this month. As of April 26th, the average quotation of domestic melt blown material sample enterprises monitored by the Business Society is around 8275 yuan/ton. Compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month, the price has increased or decreased by -3.78%, with a year-on-year decrease of 19.66%. At present, the domestic health situation is stabilizing, and social consumption is becoming increasingly weak in driving medical meltblown fabric materials. The overseas demand has also not shown significant support, and traders are giving up profits and taking orders. It is expected that the melt blown material market may continue to operate in a weak trend.

Future Market Forecast

PP analysts from Business Society believe that the polypropylene market fluctuated and fell in April. The raw material propylene market rose and then fell, with insufficient support from the cost side for the market. Terminal enterprises tend to maintain production on a demand basis, with weak demand release. On the market long short game, it is expected that the PP market may maintain a weak adjustment trend in the short term.

In April 2023, the domestic 1 # antimony ingot market slightly increased at the end of the month, with the average market price in the East China region reaching 81875 yuan/ton on the 1st and 82125 yuan/ton on the 26th, an increase of 0.31%.

On April 24th, the antimony commodity index was 113.98, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 6.16% from the cycle’s highest point of 121.46 points (2023 March 15), and an increase of 142.61% from the lowest point of 46.98 points on December 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2012-09-08 present).

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the above chart, it can be seen that the antimony ingot market has recently shown an upward trend before and after the Spring Festival. It entered a stable period after mid March, entered a downward channel in mid April, and the decline slowed down at the end of April. The trend remained stable in May, and prices entered an upward channel in June. After a brief period of stability in July, the market continued to decline again. After August, the market gradually stabilized and remained stable for 8 consecutive weeks. At the end of October, prices began to decline continuously. After December, prices continued to recover, and in mid to late March, they remained stable after three consecutive weeks of decline.

In terms of external trading, the European strategic small metal antimony market continued to slightly lower in April, with a quotation of $12050/ton as of the 26th, and a cumulative monthly decrease of $100/ton.

In terms of the industrial chain, this week’s antimony oxide market followed the overall trend of antimony ingots and remained stable, with slightly light market trading and overall weak downstream demand.

In April, most of the domestic antimony ingot market remained temporarily stable, with prices rising narrowly towards the end of the month. As of now, the antimony ingot market has remained temporarily stable for three consecutive weeks, with a monthly increase of only around 0.31%. From the perspective of supply and demand, the market changes this month have been limited, and the overall situation of tight supply and weak demand remains. After entering March, the operating rate of antimony smelting enterprises has slightly increased. Currently, enterprises are generally actively shipping, and the overall supply is still slightly tight. In terms of demand, downstream industries such as flame retardancy and photovoltaics, except for antimony oxide, still perform weakly, while exports also perform poorly. Under the drag of downstream demand, although supply is slightly tight, the market is still difficult to improve. In the future market, there is currently a strong wait-and-see mentality, and actual transactions are slightly light. Due to a lack of demand support, it is expected that the overall stability and weak operation in the future market will be the main focus.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of the business agency, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price rose slightly this week. The average price of domestic isobutyraldehyde mainstream market this week rose from 7700.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7716.67 yuan/ton at the end of the week, up 0.22%. Weekend prices decreased by 46.90% year-on-year compared to the same period last year. On April 23, the isobutyraldehyde commodity index was 39.17, an increase of 0.08 points compared to yesterday, a decrease of 62.90% from the cycle’s highest point of 105.58 points (2021-09-16), and an increase of 30.05% from the lowest point of 30.12 points on October 7, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2021 to present)

2、 Market analysis

From the supply side perspective, mainstream manufacturers of isobutyraldehyde have slightly increased their quotations this week, resulting in low inventory.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industry chains, the upstream raw material market for isobutyraldehyde saw a slight decline in the propylene market this week, with prices dropping from 7390.60 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7070.60 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 4.33%. Weekend prices have decreased by 16.04% compared to the same period last year. The price of upstream raw material market fell slightly, and the cost support was insufficient. Affected by the supply and demand side, the price of isobutyraldehyde was negatively affected. From the perspective of the downstream industry chain, the market price of neopentyl glycol fell slightly, from 10600.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 10400.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, down 1.89%. The market situation of neopentyl glycol has slightly declined, and downstream demand has weakened, which has a negative impact on isobutyraldehyde.

3、 Future prospects

The market trend of isobutyraldehyde in late April may be mainly fluctuating and declining. The upstream propylene market has slightly declined, with insufficient cost support. The downstream market for neopentyl glycol has slightly declined, and downstream procurement enthusiasm has weakened. Business Society isobutyraldehyde analysts believe that in the short term, the isobutyraldehyde market may experience slight fluctuations and declines due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.