According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China rose first and then fell this week (12.4-12.11). The average market price at the beginning of last week was 200460 yuan/ton, while the average market price at the beginning of this week was 206560 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 3.04%.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the monthly K-bar chart, it can be seen that after November 2022, tin prices have been continuously rising for three months due to macroeconomic factors. Since February 2023, prices have fallen by 11.35% in a single month, and the trend of tin prices has fluctuated narrowly in the past three months. From the weekly K-bar chart, it can be seen that the tin ingot market has seen more declines and less gains in recent times.

In terms of the futures market, the overall trend of Shanghai and Wuxi during the week was relatively strong, with LME inventory overall high. Domestic inventory has been affected by downstream stocking and has recently declined overall. At present, the overall operating rate of smelters is relatively stable in terms of supply and demand. With the increase of imported tin ingot sources, the overall supply of domestic tin ingots is relatively sufficient, while the overall supply of overseas tin ingots is surplus, and subsequent imports may continue to increase. As the demand approaches the end of the year, downstream production has slightly declined overall, and there has been little change in terminal consumption recently, but the overall situation remains weak. Overall, the tin ingot market has recently seen loose supply and weak demand. From the perspective of supply and demand, it is expected to remain stable, moderate, and weak in the short term. In the future, it is still necessary to focus on inventory changes and macro factors.

On December 10th, the non-ferrous index was at 1090 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 29.13% from the highest point in the cycle of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 79.57% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 49th week of 2023 (12.4-12.8), there were a total of 5 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that showed a month on month increase in commodity prices. The top 3 commodities with the highest increase were tin (4.54%), nickel (3.38%), and electrolytic manganese (0.73%). There are a total of 15 products with a month on month decline, and 2 products with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 8.7% of the monitored products in this sector; The top three products with a decline were neodymium metal (-5.62%), neodymium oxide (-5.61%), and silver (-4.62%). The average increase and decrease this week was -1.32%.

Price trend

In early December, the domestic PA6 market was weak and some spot prices were adjusted. According to data monitoring by Business Society, as of December 8th, the domestic benchmark price of PA6 mixture was 14350 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.78% from the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

From the above chart, it can be seen that the market price of caprolactam has recently fallen. In early December, the price of raw material pure benzene was affected by the decline in international crude oil and followed suit, while the cost support for caprolactam weakened. In addition, the maintenance of some production line devices in the industry has returned, leading to an increase in market supply and an increase in inventory levels. Downstream procurement on demand, with average demand side. It is expected that in the short term, the price of caprolactam may weaken and consolidate.

In terms of supply:

In early December, there was a narrow adjustment in the load of PA6 production enterprises, with an average operating rate of around 75% in the interval. The market supply has remained almost unchanged compared to the previous period, and there is ample supply of goods on the market. The inventory level is still not high, and there is no significant increase in supplier pressure, which still provides support for PA6 spot goods.

In terms of demand: Downstream, the load of the weaving and spinning industries has fluctuated slightly and remained stable, with an average load position of around 69% and 81%, respectively. The willingness of terminal enterprises to stock up in mid month is average, and their overall acceptance of high priced goods is not good. Trading is concentrated near maintaining production demand, with replenishment prices mostly centered around the low-end, and overall support for the demand side of PA6 slicing is average.

Future Market Forecast

In early December, the PA6 market experienced a narrow decline. The price of caprolactam has fallen, and the cost support for PA6 has weakened. The load of domestic polymerization plants is almost horizontal, and the inventory position remains low. The demand side is cautious in purchasing goods, and market trading tends towards the low-end. It is expected that future prices may be affected by new production capacity, and the PA6 market may continue to operate weakly in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the formaldehyde market has recently declined. The average price of formaldehyde at the beginning of the week was 1173.33 yuan/ton, and the average price of formaldehyde at the weekend was 1170.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.28%. The current price has dropped by 10.91% compared to last year.

formaldehyde

Recently, the price of formaldehyde in the market has fluctuated and fallen. From the above chart, it can be seen that the formaldehyde market has mainly fluctuated slightly in the past two months, with a slight decline this week. As of December 7th, the mainstream market price is 1100-1220 yuan/ton. This week, the price of raw material methanol fluctuated and stabilized, with average cost support and poor downstream demand. The market trading atmosphere was relatively quiet, and the market trend declined.

Upstream methanol situation: The methanol market has rebounded and fluctuated. In terms of supply, global coal supply is stable, domestic imports have increased, and the increase in domestic demand is not enough to support coal prices to operate at high levels; In terms of demand, the overall pressure on inventory in power plants is relatively low. Currently, the terminal mainly relies on long-term replenishment and replenishes inventory according to demand. The demand for coal in the market is relatively flat, and the overall sentiment is wait-and-see. The domestic methanol market situation is mainly sorted out.

In recent times, the methanol market has been weak and consolidating, with poor cost support and weak transactions in the formaldehyde market. Therefore, formaldehyde analysts from the Chemical Branch of Shengyishe predict that the price of formaldehyde in Shandong will mainly fall below.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of December 6, 2023, the reference market price of domestically produced industrial grade propylene glycol was 8100 yuan/ton. Compared with December 1 (reference price of propylene glycol is 8066 yuan/ton), the price increased by 34 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.41%. Compared with November 15 (reference price of propylene glycol is 8033 yuan/ton), the price increased by 67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.83%.

Looking back at November, the domestic propylene glycol market continued to be weak and declining, with weak downstream demand for propylene glycol and a lackluster atmosphere on the market. Supply side production was low, and the overall market showed a weak supply-demand trend. Entering December, at the beginning of the month, the propylene glycol market as a whole has experienced a narrow upward trend. The supply of propylene glycol on the supply side is relatively low, and some factories have less pressure to ship. In the case of downstream demand orders, the shipment price of propylene glycol has been raised narrowly, with an increase of about 50-100 yuan/ton. As of December 6th, the domestic propylene glycol market price reference is around 8050-8200 yuan/ton.

Market analysis of propylene glycol

At present, the overall trading atmosphere in the propylene glycol market is light, with downstream continuing to focus on on-demand procurement and cautious inquiries for new orders. The propylene glycol data analyst from Business Society predicts that in the short term, the domestic propylene glycol market will mainly adjust in a small range, and the specific market trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the asphalt market is experiencing a unilateral decline. From November 28th to December 5th, the price of asphalt in Shandong region increased from 3447 yuan/ton to 3459 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.34%, a month on month decrease of 9.03%, and a year-on-year decrease of 2.14%. The long-term winter storage of asphalt is gradually landing, and the enthusiasm of futures and traders to purchase goods is high, with spot prices mainly maintaining large stability and small increases.

On the supply side, the comprehensive operating rate of the asphalt industry has decreased compared to the previous month, which has had a positive impact on the supply side.

On the cost side, the international crude oil futures market is experiencing weak fluctuations. According to a report released by the US Energy Information Agency (EIA), inventories of US crude oil, gasoline, and distillates have all increased. As of the close on December 4th, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures main contract was 78.03 yuan/barrel, a decrease of 0.85 US dollars or 1.1%.

On the demand side, the main demand is in various regions, with small transactions being the main focus. The demand side of the asphalt market is influenced by bearish factors.

As of the close on December 5th, the main asphalt contract 2402 opened at 3610 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 3628 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 3585 yuan/ton. It closed at 3599 yuan/ton in the end, a decrease of 53 yuan/ton from the previous trading day’s settlement, a decrease of 1.45%. The trading volume was 98404 lots, the position was 124315 lots, and the daily increase was -6273 lots.

In the future market forecast, prices at the bottom of the market will remain stable and rise slightly. Asphalt analysts from Shengyishe predict that the domestic asphalt market will continue to consolidate and operate.