Price trend

In early August, the domestic POM market continued to show a positive trend, with spot prices continuing to rise. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of August 7th, the mixed price of domestic POM was 13200 yuan/ton, a decrease of+6.24% compared to the price level at the beginning of July.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

According to the analysis system chart of the commodity market of the Business Society, the recent market for formaldehyde has mainly fluctuated slightly, with an increase last week. The price of raw material methanol has shown an upward trend, but downstream sheet metal factories have poor demand, and market trading sentiment is average. Formaldehyde manufacturers are shipping normally, and the market is slightly rising with costs.

On the supply side:

The operating rate of domestic POM enterprises remained high in early August, but due to factors such as unplanned maintenance, the industry load decreased by nearly 8% to 86% last week. Although the high load situation continues, the initial inventory is low, and most enterprises have no inventory pressure, and even have negative inventory oversold situations. In addition, some other enterprises have maintenance plans in the later stage, and the current POM supply is still tight.

In terms of demand:

At present, the operating level of downstream POM enterprises in China is not high, but due to the stimulation of tight supply, there is a speculative atmosphere in the market. The enthusiasm for stocking is acceptable, and the transaction position of the order is high. Overall, the demand side’s support for POM spot prices is moderate.

Future Market Forecast

In early August, the POM market continued to rise rapidly. The operating rate of domestic polymerization plants has decreased, and the shortage of goods on site has worsened. There is currently no industry inventory pressure, and suppliers have strong support for spot goods. On the demand side, it is expected that due to the impact of high temperatures, power restrictions, and tropical cyclones in the later stage, the operating rate of terminal enterprises may decline. However, the release of consumption in the short term may be boosted by recent POM enterprise maintenance plans. Traders’ confidence remains strong, and the sentiment of speculation on the market remains strong. It is expected that the POM market will continue to strengthen in a narrow range in the future.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the price of caustic soda has slightly increased this week. At the beginning of the week, the average market price was 3262.5 yuan/ton, while on the weekend, the average market price was 3287.5 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.77% and a year-on-year decrease of 26.4%. Maintain an upward trend this week.

Upstream caustic soda

According to the Commodity Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of caustic soda has stabilized this week. At the beginning of the week, the average market price in Shandong was 737.4 yuan/ton, and on the weekend, the average market price in Shandong was 742 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.62% and a decrease of 31.3% compared to the same period last year.

Analysts from Business Society believe that the overall price of caustic soda has increased this week, and the supply of parking and maintenance services by manufacturers in the northwest region has decreased. However, the actual downstream demand has recently been purchased on demand, and the purchasing enthusiasm is average. The supply and demand game, whether the price can rise in the later stage depends on the market transaction situation. Overall, the short-term or sustained consolidation of the price of caustic soda depends on the downstream market demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic BDO market has rebounded and fluctuated. From July 27th to August 3rd, the average price of domestic BDO increased from 10942 yuan/ton to 11100 yuan/ton, with a weekly price increase of 1.44%, a month on month decrease of 2.63%, and a year-on-year decrease of 9.31%. Some production enterprises have undergone equipment maintenance, agent replacement, and load reduction, resulting in a decrease in the overall industry load and a certain positive supply side inventory. Factories and traders are reluctant to sell in stock, which is quite favorable for the market. Downstream industries maintain contract follow-up, limited and negotiated spot purchases, and limited gains.

On the supply side, the short-term BDO production and supply have decreased, and the BDO supply side is a positive factor.

On the cost side, raw material calcium carbide: The domestic calcium carbide market is mainly organized, while the upstream raw material blue charcoal prices are low and stable, and the cost support for calcium carbide is average. The downstream PVC market has slightly increased, and downstream demand is good. On August 3rd, the benchmark price of calcium carbide in Shangshang Society was 2950.00 yuan/ton. In terms of methanol, costs and demand are improving, and the methanol market is at a high level of consolidation. As of 15:00 on August 3rd, the domestic methanol Taicang price is 2330 yuan/ton. The recent consolidation and operation of calcium carbide market and slight improvement in methanol market are expected to lead to a breakthrough in BDO cost.

On the demand side, the downstream PTMEG industry is facing difficulties in increasing demand in the short term as the maintenance load of some devices decreases and other downstream operations remain at a low level. Short term bearish factors on the demand side of BDO.

In the future market forecast, there is no significant improvement in the downstream demand of the terminal, and some downstream industries are expected to experience a decline. BDO analysts from the Business Society predict that the domestic BDO market will be mainly on a wait-and-see basis.

According to data monitored by Business Society, the domestic carbon black market prices have slightly increased this week. On July 30th, the domestic carbon black N220 was quoted at 8733 yuan/ton, mainly due to a decline in raw material prices in the early stage, poor downstream shipments, weak demand side performance, and a gradual increase in bearish factors on the market.

Cost: In terms of raw materials, the market price of coal tar has begun to rise, most of the deep processed products are linked to the raw material Coal tar, and the supply side of Coal tar market is tight. This week, the market price of high-temperature Coal tar has risen. So far, the market price of Coal tar is 4240 yuan/ton.

Supply and demand side: Most carbon black enterprises maintain normal operating levels, and the overall operation of the domestic carbon black market is stable, with sufficient supply in the carbon black market.

In terms of demand: The overall demand of downstream tire enterprises is weak, still in the traditional sales off-season. Recently, there has been insufficient construction and construction work, and domestic demand has further weakened. Enterprises mainly need to purchase just now, and terminal demand continues to be weak. The overall demand in the future is not very optimistic.

Overall, the cost side support has increased, inventory levels are not high, and there has been no significant improvement in the demand side. It is expected that the carbon black market will be reorganized and operated in the short term.

The domestic bisphenol A market rose in a wide range, and the double raw materials rose in a wide range in the early stage. Under the pressure of bisphenol A cost, the factory concentrated on raising the listing price, and the vendor was in a positive mood to support the price. On July 31st, the mainstream prices in East China were negotiated at 10650-10800 yuan/ton

On July 31st, the quotation situation of bisphenol A in the mainstream domestic market:

Region/ Quotation/ Daily fluctuations

East China/ 10750./200

Shandong region/ 10700./200

The initial raw material phenol/acetone fluctuated higher, with strong cost support. Yesterday, the raw material market fell, but cost pressure still exists. As of 31, the negotiated price of phenol market in East China was 8250 yuan/ton, and the market price of acetone in East China was 6900 yuan/ton.

The two downstream products, epoxy resin/PC, have increased due to cost factors. The negotiated price for liquid epoxy resin in East China ranges from 14200 to 14600 yuan/ton, while the PC market is operating at a competitive price. The negotiated price for mid to high-end materials ranges from 15500 to 16800 yuan/ton.

The spot quantity of bisphenol A is limited, and there is currently no production and sales pressure from various manufacturers. The broad upward trend of raw materials has driven the downstream bisphenol A market to continue to rise. Pay attention to the recent transaction situation, and it is expected that bisphenol A will adjust at a high level today.