According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the PP market has fluctuated and declined this week, with overall adjustments made to various wire drawing brands. As of April 21st, the mainstream quoted price of T30S (wire drawing) by domestic producers and traders is around 7735.71 yuan/ton, with a decrease of -1.15% compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industry chain: On the upstream side, the propylene market in Shandong fell significantly this week, with the decline concentrated in the second half of the week, with daily declines reaching 150 yuan/ton. In April, the propylene market continued to rise, and downstream resistance to high prices intensified. The wait-and-see atmosphere was strong, coupled with the weakening of international oil prices, which further dragged down the market situation. Propylene companies took advantage of the situation to sell their products. The industry has high expectations for a decline in the future, and in the atmosphere of buying up rather than buying down, it is expected that the short-term trend of propylene will continue to decline weakly.

The decline in propylene prices has weakened the cost support for PP. In terms of industry load, in mid April, the operating situation of PP enterprises decreased narrowly, and the overall industry load was below 75%. The impact of maintenance benefits slowed down, and overall shipments remained stable. There is sufficient supply of goods on site, with a slight decrease in inventory, but supply pressure still exists. In terms of demand, the operating rates of downstream plastic weaving and film materials enterprises are fluctuating, and the stocking situation of terminal enterprises is average, with on-demand procurement being the main focus.

In terms of fiber materials, according to data monitored by Business Society, as of April 23, the spot price of domestic fiber PP has stabilized and operated. The mainstream quoted price of domestic producers and traders for Z30S (fiber) is around 7712 yuan/ton, with a 0% increase or decrease compared to the average price at the beginning of the month, and a 13.02% decrease compared to the same period last year. Recently, the downstream non-woven fabric enterprises, the main force of PP fiber materials, have continuously adjusted their load in a low and narrow range, with an overall operating rate of around 29%. The demand situation of terminal enterprises is weak, and the digestion speed of non-woven end products is average. The enterprise’s efforts to replenish fiber PP are not good. It is expected to maintain a weak and stable pattern in the short term.

In terms of melt blown materials, the melt blown PP market continued to decline this week. As of April 23rd, the average quotation of domestic melt blown material sample enterprises monitored by the Business Society is around 8375 yuan/ton, which is an increase or decrease of -2.62% compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month, and a decrease of 18.69% compared to the same period last year. At present, the domestic health situation is stabilizing, and social consumption is becoming increasingly weak in driving medical meltblown fabric materials. The overseas demand has also not shown significant support, and traders are giving up profits and taking orders. It is expected that the melt blown material market may continue to operate in a weak trend.

Future Market Forecast

PP analysts from Business Society believe that the polypropylene market has been relatively weak this week. The raw material propylene market has declined, and the cost side’s support for the market has deteriorated. Terminal enterprises tend to maintain production on a demand basis, with weak demand release. On the market long short game, it is expected that the PP market may maintain a weak adjustment trend in the short term.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of April 19, 2023, the reference price of n-butanol in the Shandong region of China was 7466 yuan/ton. Compared with April 15 (reference price of n-butanol was 7533 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.88%.

From the data monitoring chart of the Business Society, it can be seen that this week (4.15-4.19), the overall market situation of n-butanol in the Shandong region of China showed a slight decline. In early April, the overall market situation of n-butanol in the Shandong region of China experienced a weak decline. This week, the overall n-butanol market continued to decline slightly, and downstream demand continued to be weak. Overall transactions on the market were average, with some n-butanol factories reducing the price of n-butanol narrowly by around 100 yuan/ton. As of April 19, the market price of n-butanol in Shandong Province was around 7400-7500 yuan/ton.

Aftermarket analysis of n-butanol

At present, n-butanol is operating at a weak and low level in the n-butanol market, and there is a certain wait-and-see sentiment in the market. With the May Day holiday approaching and the downstream may usher in phased stocking, the risk of the n-butanol market continuing to decline is limited. The n-butanol data analyst from the Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic Shandong region’s n-butanol market is expected to remain stable and consolidate, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to specific news changes on the supply and demand side.

Weak consolidation of plasticizer DOP this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of April 17th, the DOP price was 9917.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.33% compared to April 10th, when the DOP price was 9950 yuan/ton. Plasticizer manufacturers are operating steadily, with sufficient supply in the plasticizer market. Downstream procurement is in urgent need, and customer procurement enthusiasm is average. The market transaction atmosphere is cold, and the DOP market is weak and consolidating this week.

Market situation of raw material products

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of April 17th, the quotation for ortho phthalic anhydride was 8562.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.72% compared to the price of 8625 yuan/ton on April 10th. The price of ortho benzene has stabilized, the cost of phthalic anhydride has stabilized, and the support for upward growth has weakened. Downstream demand is poor, and the market for phthalic anhydride has remained stagnant this week. In the future, the upward momentum of phthalic anhydride prices has weakened, and downward pressure still exists.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of April 17, the price of isooctanol was 9114.29 yuan/ton, a fluctuation decrease of 1.24% compared to the price of isooctanol on April 10, which was 9228.57 yuan/ton. This week, the production of isooctanol enterprises was at a low level, and the supply of isooctanol is expected to decrease. Demand side plasticizer enterprises have temporarily stabilized their production, and the weak and volatile consolidation of isooctanol will be the main trend in the future.

Downstream demand is weak

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of April 17, the price of PVC was 5994 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.20% compared to the PVC price of 6066.67 yuan/ton on April 10. The PVC spot market is relatively light, and the futures market has performed poorly. The overall market atmosphere is relatively empty, with insufficient confidence on the market. The inquiry atmosphere in the PVC spot market is weak, and the enthusiasm for buying goods is not good. PVC prices have fallen.

Future expectations

Analysts from Business Society’s plasticizer product data believe that this week, the prices of raw materials for plasticizer DOP, phthalic anhydride and isooctanol, have fluctuated slightly, resulting in a decrease in DOP costs. The upward support for DOP is not supported by increased downward pressure. On the demand side, PVC prices are weak and declining, downstream demand is weak, and downstream enterprises of plasticizers have poor purchasing enthusiasm. Overall, cost support weakens and demand is weak, while the plasticizer market is mainly weak and consolidating.

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of the Business Society, as of April 14th, the average price of PMMA, a general transparent and high-quality product in China, was 14775.00 yuan/ton. This week, PMMA prices were running smoothly, with no significant price fluctuations, and downstream procurement was mainly based on demand.

This week, the domestic general transparent grade premium product PMMA has been operating smoothly, while prices have remained stable compared to the same period last week. The purchasing atmosphere is cold, and downstream demand is insufficient. Currently, the quotation range of mainstream manufacturers is still around 15000 yuan/ton. The operating rate is stable, and the overall market supply and demand is balanced. The factory has given up profits and taken orders, and downstream purchases are just needed.

Rubber and Plastic Index: On April 13, the rubber and plastic index was 675 points, a decrease of 1 point from yesterday, a decrease of 36.32% from the highest point in the cycle of 1060 points (2012-03-14), and an increase of 27.84% from the lowest point of 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

PMMA analysts from Business Society believe that PMMA will maintain stable operation in the short term.

In the first quarter, the MIBK market experienced a rapid increase and continued to decline. The outbound price of tank trucks increased from 14766 yuan/ton to 21000 yuan/ton, with a maximum amplitude of 42% in the first quarter. As of April 5th, it fell to 15400 yuan/ton, a month on month decrease of 17.1% and a year-on-year increase of 8.83%. The market trend in the first quarter was mainly influenced by the significant reduction in domestic production and the strong factors of speculation. The rapid replenishment of import volume and the production of new devices eased the expected tight supply situation, as well as the limited acceptance of high priced raw materials due to the continuous downturn in demand. The MIBK market may enter a period of weak adjustment in the second quarter.

The sluggish demand has limited procurement of raw materials, and there may be plans to shut down major downstream antioxidants. The slow resumption of downstream work has a low demand for raw material MIBK, and the sluggish terminal manufacturing industry has limited acceptance of high priced MIBK. However, traders are under great pressure to ship, and under the expected difficulty in improving, actual orders on the market continue to decline, and transactions are mostly small orders that just need to be followed up. In the second quarter, there are still difficulties in increasing terminal demand, and there may be plans to shut down the antioxidant 4020 industry. With the prolonged decline of MIBK, the decline space is narrowing, and there is also a possibility of a phased pullback in the market for bargain-hunting and appropriate inventory. The spot trading strategy can rely on the commodity market analysis system of the business society. In the product spot strategy, the prices within the cycle are divided into five levels: high, medium high, medium, medium low, and low. Based on the current price position, the inventory trading strategy is guided

The import volume has been replenished sufficiently. It is reported that China’s imports to South Korea increased by 125% in January, and the total import volume in February was 5460 tons, an increase of 123% compared to the previous month. Affected by the tight domestic supply and the sharp rise in prices, the import volume increased significantly in the first quarter, which has a significant impact on the domestic supply side. In the second quarter, there was sufficient social inventory and the supply side remained loose.

From the perspective of the business community, the MIBK market rose sharply and fell sharply in the first quarter. Finally, due to the cold demand, the market price gradually returned to rational space. In April, the change of domestic supply was limited, but there may also be short-term accidental maintenance. At present, the enterprise has sufficient inventory, while imports may have a certain decline, and the overall supply declined slightly. However, in April, there was a serious lack of demand confidence, and due to cost factors, high priced raw materials resisted. As a result, the mentality of shippers also changed, resulting in an increase in profits and shipments. However, overall, there is a small amount of downstream inventory, and in order to maintain production demand, there may be restocking in the later stage. In the second quarter, as prices decline or there is bottoming out behavior, it is difficult for the demand side to improve in the second quarter, and there may be a shutdown expectation for antioxidants, resulting in poor demand. It is expected that MIBK will gradually reach its bottom in April and enter a weak adjustment period.