Price trend

 

According to the monitoring of Business Society, the average price of activated carbon at the beginning of 2023 was 10766 yuan/ton, and at the end of 2023, the average price of activated carbon was 11700 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 8.67%.

 

quotations analysis

 

activated carbon

 

In 2023, the price of activated carbon for the whole year mainly showed a fluctuating upward trend. According to the monthly rise and fall chart of 2023, the largest increase of the year was in May, with an increase of 6.02%. The largest decline of the year was in January, with a decline of 1.24%.

 

Phase 1

 

From January to June, the domestic price of activated carbon increased, and the factory price of activated carbon for water purification in East China coconut shell ranges from 9500 to 12000 yuan/ton; Due to the improvement of logistics and transportation restrictions in the market, most dealers are optimistic, and some end merchants have entered the market to replenish goods in moderation, resulting in strong market quotations.

 

Phase 2

 

From August to December, the domestic activated carbon market transactions were light, with most manufacturers maintaining stable quotes and some adjustments. Dealers were mainly wait-and-see, with limited terminal demand orders and average replenishment sentiment. The market was mostly dominated by distributors filling gaps. In order to quickly recover funds and sell at a profit, although the prices of fruit shells and raw materials are generally high, the competition in the charcoal market is fierce, and buyers often hold low prices to inquire in the market.

 

Future Market Forecast

 

Market Production: Market Production: In 2023, China’s activated carbon production will reach 1.15 million tons, including 400000 tons of wooden activated carbon and 750000 tons of coal based activated carbon. It is expected that the production of activated carbon will continue to increase in 2024.

 

On the demand side: From the regional distribution of activated carbon demand, China, the United States, the European Union, and Japan are the main consumption areas of activated carbon, with China being the second largest global consumer of activated carbon after the United States. With the continuous development of macroeconomics in developing countries, environmental pollution caused by industrial growth is becoming increasingly prominent. Countries are strengthening their efforts in environmental governance and protection, driving the rapid growth of activated carbon consumption in the region. The traditional application market of activated carbon will steadily expand, and it is expected that the domestic demand for activated carbon market will reach about 890000 tons by 2024.

 

Demand for activated carbon

 

Government side: In 2024, the supply and demand market of China’s activated carbon industry will become more stable, and pricing power will also be stronger. At present, the government is providing more support to the industry in strengthening supervision, regulation, and chemical inspection, promoting the standardization of market prices.

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In summary, with the continuous improvement of living standards, the demand for environment such as food and drinking water is also continuously increasing. As a result, the market demand for activated carbon is gradually expanding, driving the rapid increase of industry production capacity. It is expected that the price of activated carbon will mainly fluctuate and tend to be strong in 2024.

Recently, the market trend of ethyl acrylate has also remained stable. According to data from Business Society, as of January 9th, the average price of isooctyl acrylate in Shandong was 10600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.64% from the beginning of last month. The market price of ethyl acrylate in East China was 10600 yuan/ton, and in North China it was 10700 yuan/ton; The market price in South China is 10800 yuan/ton.

 

Due to the overall small market size of ethyl acrylate and relatively limited downstream demand during the traditional off-season, market fluctuations are relatively mild. However, due to the impact of rising prices of related products such as butyl acrylate, the market prices have also been relatively strong recently.

 

At present, the rise of the ethyl acrylate market is mainly affected by the rise of raw materials. However, the downstream transmission speed of traditional off-season terminals is still slow. With the end of downstream replenishment, analysts from Business Society believe that market participants still have some concerns about the future market. However, some products are still experiencing losses without significant improvement, and it is expected that the ethyl acrylate market may still passively follow the trend of raw material prices.

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According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the mixed xylene market has slightly increased recently (12.29-1.8). On January 8th, the benchmark price of mixed xylene was 7090 yuan/ton, and on December 29th, the benchmark price of mixed xylene was 6950 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.01%.

 

International crude oil volatility and rebound in external market prices provide some support for mixed xylene

 

Recently (12.29-1.8), international crude oil prices have fluctuated widely, providing short-term support for the cost of mixed xylene. As of January 5th, WTI02 contract settlement is 73.81 USD/barrel; Brent 03 contract settlement is $78.76 per barrel. The rebound in Asian mixed xylene prices provides support for the domestic market, with prices of heterogeneous grade xylene in Asia ranging from $895 to $896 per ton as of January 5th.

 

Continuous increase in mixed xylene port inventory and increased supply pressure

 

The continued increase in mixed xylene port inventory has put pressure on the supply side of mixed xylene. It is understood that as of January 4th, the total inventory of xylene in East and South China was 56000 tons, a significant increase from 42000 tons at the end of December.

 

Temporary stability of xylene production and necessary support for mixed xylene production

 

The domestic supply of xylene is relatively normal, with a domestic PX operating rate of over 80%. A 750000 ton unit of Pengzhou Petrochemical has restarted, but some units are still undergoing maintenance, and spot supply is normal. This week, international crude oil prices have risen, and PX external prices have slightly increased due to this impact. As of the 4th, the closing prices in Asia are 996-998 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 1021-1023 US dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX plants in Asia has remained high. Overall, the operating rate of xylene plants in the Asian region is nearly 80%. PX supply in the Asian region is normal, and crude oil prices have slightly increased recently. The domestic xylene market prices are temporarily stable.

 

The market for phthalic anhydride saw a slight increase, with stable production and stable demand support for mixed xylene

 

The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride units is stable, with normal shipments of ortho phthalic anhydride from Tongling, Anhui. The 100000 ton phthalic anhydride unit of Xinyang Group is operating stably, while Shandong Hongxin phthalic anhydride is operating normally. However, some units are still in a shutdown state. Currently, the operating rate of domestic phthalic anhydride is less than 60%, and the supply of phthalic anhydride is low. The supply of naphthalene phthalic anhydride is normal, and the phthalic anhydride market is slightly rising.

 

Small fluctuations in the domestic mixed blending market, weak support for mixed xylene demand

 

Since the fourth quarter, the domestic mixed blending market has entered a low season, with weak downstream inquiries and weak demand for mixed xylene. As of early January, the operating rate of refinery facilities nationwide was around 7.1%.

 

Market forecast: In the short term, international crude oil will fluctuate widely, and there is a high risk of changes in the cost of mixed xylene. Domestic port inventories will continue to increase, and the demand for mixed xylene will be weak. In the short term, the mixed xylene market will be mainly affected by the crude oil market, and it is expected that mixed xylene will fluctuate and consolidate in the later period.

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According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, on January 5th, the benchmark price of Shengyishe glycerol (glycerol) was 4587.50 yuan/ton, unchanged from the beginning of this month.

 

Influencing factors:

 

The downstream market demand for epichlorohydrin is weak, and manufacturers have low operating rates. Most enterprises purchase on demand. At the same time, the domestic glycerol market has also been affected by the impact of imported glycerol and cost factors. The price of glycerol runs smoothly, and the market is difficult to rise or fall, with no improvement at present.

 

Analysts predict that the domestic glycerol market will mainly operate weakly and steadily in the future.

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1、 Price trend

 

According to monitoring data from Business Society, the overall price of caustic soda decreased in a stepwise manner in December. At the beginning of the month, the average price in the Shandong market was 844 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average price in the Shandong market was around 798 yuan/ton. The overall price dropped by 5.45%, a decrease of 29.26% compared to the same period last year. On December 28th, the chlor alkali index was 1108 points, a decrease of 2 points from yesterday, a decrease of 47.93% from the highest point in the cycle of 2128 points (2021-10-24), and an increase of 55.62% from the lowest point of 712 points on January 5th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present)

 

2、 Market analysis

 

According to survey data from Business Society, the overall price of caustic soda has declined this month. The quotation for caustic soda in Shandong region is relatively weak, with 32% of the mainstream market for ion exchange membrane caustic soda priced at around 730-800 yuan/ton. The prices for caustic soda in Jiangsu region are consolidating, while 32% of the mainstream market for ion exchange membrane caustic soda priced at around 760-860 yuan/ton. The prices for caustic soda in Hebei region are consolidating, with 32% of the mainstream market for ion exchange membrane caustic soda priced at around 730-760 yuan/ton.

 

The price of liquid alkali is weak, and the price of caustic soda is weak and consolidating this week. Downstream alumina has recently replenished inventory as needed, and there is a supply-demand game, resulting in weak caustic soda prices. Next week, it is expected that North China and production reduction facilities will gradually recover, and the current caustic soda prices will remain at a low level.

 

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 51st week of 2023 (12.18-12.22), there were a total of 3 products that rose, 2 products that fell, and 2 products that rose or fell to 0 on the chlor alkali industry price list. The main rising commodities include calcium carbide (0.56%), baking soda (0.50%), and PVC (0.07%); The main commodities falling are caustic soda (-1.46%) and caustic soda flakes (-0.93%). The average increase and decrease this week is -0.18%.

 

Business Society analysts believe that in recent times, the price of caustic soda has been weak, and downstream demand is mainly cautious, with more purchases made according to demand. It is expected that the trend will be mainly consolidation in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

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