In the first quarter, the MIBK market experienced a rapid increase and continued to decline. The outbound price of tank trucks increased from 14766 yuan/ton to 21000 yuan/ton, with a maximum amplitude of 42% in the first quarter. As of April 5th, it fell to 15400 yuan/ton, a month on month decrease of 17.1% and a year-on-year increase of 8.83%. The market trend in the first quarter was mainly influenced by the significant reduction in domestic production and the strong factors of speculation. The rapid replenishment of import volume and the production of new devices eased the expected tight supply situation, as well as the limited acceptance of high priced raw materials due to the continuous downturn in demand. The MIBK market may enter a period of weak adjustment in the second quarter.

The sluggish demand has limited procurement of raw materials, and there may be plans to shut down major downstream antioxidants. The slow resumption of downstream work has a low demand for raw material MIBK, and the sluggish terminal manufacturing industry has limited acceptance of high priced MIBK. However, traders are under great pressure to ship, and under the expected difficulty in improving, actual orders on the market continue to decline, and transactions are mostly small orders that just need to be followed up. In the second quarter, there are still difficulties in increasing terminal demand, and there may be plans to shut down the antioxidant 4020 industry. With the prolonged decline of MIBK, the decline space is narrowing, and there is also a possibility of a phased pullback in the market for bargain-hunting and appropriate inventory. The spot trading strategy can rely on the commodity market analysis system of the business society. In the product spot strategy, the prices within the cycle are divided into five levels: high, medium high, medium, medium low, and low. Based on the current price position, the inventory trading strategy is guided

The import volume has been replenished sufficiently. It is reported that China’s imports to South Korea increased by 125% in January, and the total import volume in February was 5460 tons, an increase of 123% compared to the previous month. Affected by the tight domestic supply and the sharp rise in prices, the import volume increased significantly in the first quarter, which has a significant impact on the domestic supply side. In the second quarter, there was sufficient social inventory and the supply side remained loose.

From the perspective of the business community, the MIBK market rose sharply and fell sharply in the first quarter. Finally, due to the cold demand, the market price gradually returned to rational space. In April, the change of domestic supply was limited, but there may also be short-term accidental maintenance. At present, the enterprise has sufficient inventory, while imports may have a certain decline, and the overall supply declined slightly. However, in April, there was a serious lack of demand confidence, and due to cost factors, high priced raw materials resisted. As a result, the mentality of shippers also changed, resulting in an increase in profits and shipments. However, overall, there is a small amount of downstream inventory, and in order to maintain production demand, there may be restocking in the later stage. In the second quarter, as prices decline or there is bottoming out behavior, it is difficult for the demand side to improve in the second quarter, and there may be a shutdown expectation for antioxidants, resulting in poor demand. It is expected that MIBK will gradually reach its bottom in April and enter a weak adjustment period.

The acrylonitrile market continued to decline this week (3.24~3.31). According to data monitoring from Business Society, as of March 31st, the bulk water price in the acrylonitrile market was 10050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.66% from last Friday’s 10325 yuan/ton. At present, the self pickup price of acrylonitrile in the market is between 9800 to 10100 yuan/ton. The price of raw materials rebounded slightly, and the cost of acrylonitrile faced support; Supply side pressure continues and demand side support weakens; Acrylonitrile market is slightly weak.

This week (3.24~3.31), the domestic acrylonitrile operating rate is around 70%, and supply pressure continues

This week (3.24~3.31), the raw material propylene market rebounded slightly, and the cost of acrylonitrile encountered support. According to the monitoring of Business Society, as of March 31, the domestic propylene price was 7138 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.38% from last Friday’s 6972 yuan/ton.

Downstream ABS prices have slightly decreased, with industry equipment still operating at around 8.6%, slightly higher than last week, and there is still a strong demand for support for acrylonitrile; This week, the domestic production of nitrile rubber has remained stable, with weak support for acrylonitrile. The polyacrylamide market continues to be low, with weak support for acrylonitrile.

Future Forecast: Business Society Acrylonitrile Analysts believe that the current supply pressure of acrylonitrile is high, and there is no room for improvement in the demand side in the short term. It is expected that the acrylonitrile market will continue to decline slightly in the future.

According to the bulk list data of Business Society, the domestic TDI price trend continued to decline in March. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of TDI was 19500 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the price was 17700 yuan/ton. Within the month, it was reduced by 1800 yuan/ton, an overall decrease of 9.23%.

In March, the TDI market experienced a weak decline. Downstream demand continued to be weak during the month, market inquiries were sluggish, and the trading market atmosphere was cold. There was a lack of willingness to support prices, and the industry was bearish. In order to maintain the pace of shipment, the TDI offer continued to move downwards, with a clear sense of pessimism on the market. TDI prices continued to decline.

The upstream toluene market has declined, with a price of 7080 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 230 yuan/ton compared to the price of 7310 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and an overall decrease of 3.15%. The cost of naphtha has significantly declined, and the price of raw materials has slid. The market for toluene has also declined, while downstream terminal demand is less than expected. According to market news guidance, the price trend of toluene is weak and downward.

According to the TDI data analyst from the Business Society, downstream demand for TDI is sluggish, the atmosphere for inquiries on the market is light, and the supplier’s mentality is pessimistic. The TDI quotation is weak, resulting in a stalemate between supply and demand on the market. It is expected that TDI will fluctuate and consolidate in the future, and specific attention will be paid to downstream follow-up.

Data monitoring shows that the polyaluminum chloride commodity index stood at 101.49 on March 31, unchanged from yesterday, down 28.85% from the cycle’s highest point of 142.64 (2021-11-01), and up 20.36% from the lowest point of 84.32 on August 18, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to 2019-04-01 to now)

According to the monitoring data of the Business News Agency, the market price of solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride in China continued to fluctuate slightly in March, with the main market price of 1925 yuan/ton on the 1st day and 1877 yuan/ton on the 31st day, a decrease of 2.47%. This month, some water treatment enterprises in China’s main production areas quickly resumed production due to short-term phased environmental protection shutdowns, which did not affect the supply and demand situation. There was abundant spot inventory, downstream procurement demand continued to be weak, market transactions were not active, and the market for polyaluminum chloride had been weak for several consecutive months.

Raw hydrochloric acid: According to the monitoring data from the Business News Agency, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price in March was stable and fluctuated, with the market reporting 166 yuan/ton on the first day and 198 yuan/ton on the 31st, with a monthly increase of 19.28%. From the perspective of the supply side, the domestic hydrochloric acid market rose sharply this month, with fewer manufacturers in inventory. The upstream liquid chlorine market has risen significantly, with increased cost support and sufficient momentum for the rise of hydrochloric acid; The market situation in the downstream market declined slightly, and the enthusiasm of downstream manufacturers in purchasing hydrochloric acid was weak. It is expected that the hydrochloric acid market in the first ten days of mid April may suffer a slight fluctuation and decline.

Liquefied natural gas for production. According to data from Business News Agency, domestic LNG prices fell sharply in March. As of March 31, the average price of liquefied natural gas in China was 4344 yuan/ton, down 28.03% from the daily average price of 4214 yuan/ton. Cost support weakened due to lower feed gas prices. Market supply is sufficient and terminal demand is weak. After the end of the heating season in the north, there was a significant oversupply situation in the market, and the sea gas sector also followed the downward trend. Currently, the domestic liquid price has fallen to a low level, and it is expected that the domestic LNG market will continue to operate weakly in the short term.

Future Market Forecast: This month, the market for raw material hydrochloric acid has risen, the cost of nitrogen and fuel has significantly decreased, the domestic market has a high supply and low demand, the market demand continues to be weak, and the spot inventory is sufficient. Industry insiders generally reflect that the situation this year is difficult, and it is expected that the future market for polyaluminum chloride will be dominated by a slight weakness.

According to the price monitoring by the Business Agency, the sulfur price trend in East China rose first and then fell in March, resulting in a weak market situation. As of March 30, the average ex-factory price of sulfur in the East China region was 1083.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.85% during the month compared to 1126.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

During the month, the sulfur market in East China was sorted out and operated, with the price trend mainly rising in the first ten days. The terminal market had a demand for fertilizer in spring, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was good. Enterprise shipments were smooth, and the sulfur market operated at a high price, rising from 1126.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 1223.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.58%; In the middle and late stages of the market, the price fell from 1223.33 yuan/ton to 1083.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.44%. The main reason was that the performance of the terminal market was flat, downstream demand weakened, refineries lowered their prices to stimulate shipments, and the impact of buying up and not buying down mentality led to a weak decline in sulfur prices.

The market price of downstream sulfuric acid rose first and then fell in March. At the beginning of the month, the market price of sulfuric acid was 253.33 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, it was 250.00 yuan/ton, with an overall decrease of 1.31% during the month. Before March 17, the trading atmosphere in the sulfuric acid market was good, with positive downstream delivery, smooth enterprise shipments, and favorable price increases; From March 18th to the end of the month, downstream demand weakened, enterprise shipments were poor, coupled with enterprise inventory pressure, and the price of sulfuric acid enterprises decreased.

The market of monoammonium phosphate in March was weak and sorted out, with weak market demand for monoammonium phosphate. Downstream purchasing was cautious, with a small amount of replenishment being the main factor. Due to insufficient intramarket trading, the focus of monoammonium phosphate transaction shifted downward. As of March 30, the average market price of 55% powdered monoammonium phosphate was 3250 yuan/ton, down 2.40% from the average price of 3330 yuan/ton on March 1.

In the future market forecast, sulfur analysts from Business News believe that the sulfur enterprise’s units are operating normally, the market supply is stable, and the end of spring fertilizer use in the terminal market is approaching. Downstream demand is weak, and there is a lack of positive results on the market. In the event of oversupply, it is expected that the short-term sulfur market will be weak and reorganized, with price fluctuations in the range. Specific attention will be paid to downstream follow-up.