According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic aggregated MDI market experienced high volatility in June. From June 1st to 28th, the domestic aggregated MDI market price increased from 15600 yuan/ton to 16400 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 5.13% during the cycle and a maximum amplitude of 8.21%. The price fell by 9.93% year-on-year.

At the beginning of the month, the atmosphere of the domestic aggregated MDI market significantly improved, with traders facing tight supply and prices gradually rising. Major production enterprises announced the latest prices for June, boosting the market atmosphere. The downstream market slowly followed up, and the tracking atmosphere was still average. We continue to wait for digestion and follow-up.

In mid month, major production enterprises announced mid month guidance prices, which were slightly increased, boosting market sentiment and causing traders to quote higher prices. Under the concentrated boost of many positive news, reserve orders have increased, buying has improved, and prices continue to rise.

In the latter half of this month, multiple production enterprises began to inspect their devices one after another, resulting in a tight supply of goods in the market. Traders took advantage of this opportunity to increase their quotations, and there was also incremental support in the terminal export market. The market atmosphere continued to be warm.

Towards the end of the month, although major production enterprises suspended sales, traders still had relatively abundant supply of goods on hand. Downstream resistance to high prices led to demand orders, and the market atmosphere immediately weakened, leading to a narrow decline in aggregated MDI prices.

On the supply side, the operating rate of the unit is low. The 3.5+2.4 million ton/year mother liquor unit of Shanghai Lianheng has been overhauled since June 11, which affects the rectification units of Huntsman Corporation and BASF, the 400000 ton/year unit of Ningbo Phase I has been shut down for maintenance, and the 800000 ton/year unit of Phase II has been operated at low load. In addition, the load of the Fujian unit has been reduced to maintain about 50% of the operating load, which adds up to the 600000 ton/year unit of Shanghai due to the front-end raw material supply problem, Resulting in a decrease in operating load and expected shrinkage in supply and inventory of goods.

On the cost side, raw material pure benzene: The domestic pure benzene market continued to be weak in June. As of June 28th, the benchmark price of pure benzene for Shangshang Society was 6187.17 yuan/ton, a decrease of -5.69% compared to the beginning of this month (6560.50 yuan/ton). The overall demand atmosphere is weak, with downstream consumption of raw material inventory being the main factor, making it difficult for the pure benzene market to change the downward trend. Raw material aniline: In June, the aniline market was dominated by weak consolidation. As of June 28th, the benchmark price of aniline in Shangshang Society was 10225.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -6.30% compared to the beginning of this month (10912.50 yuan/ton). The cost side of short-term aggregated MDI is bearish.

On the demand side, based on the buying gas in the first half of June, there is still more buying and rising in the downstream, with prices continuing to rise and a stronger willingness to consume inventory. As prices reach high levels, downstream resistance breeds, the market atmosphere weakens, and the price trend narrows down. The demand for short-term aggregated MDI is mixed.

In the future market forecast, as prices rise, the market atmosphere gradually weakens, and traders’ quotes are scarce, with a focus on wait-and-see. Business Society aggregates MDI analysts

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic hydrochloric acid market prices fluctuated and fell in June. The price of hydrochloric acid decreased from 175.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 173.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton, or 1.14%. The price at the end of the month decreased by 38.76% year-on-year.

On June 27th, the hydrochloric acid commodity index was 45.53, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 66.98% from the cycle’s highest point of 137.89 points (2021-10-26), and an increase of 153.23% from the lowest point of 17.98 points on September 5th, 2012. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

From the supply side perspective, the domestic hydrochloric acid market has seen both ups and downs this month, with manufacturers having low inventory.

Cost side: The price of liquid chlorine has significantly increased

From a cost perspective, the liquid chlorine market saw a significant increase in June. Cost support is good.

Demand side: Downstream demand is weak

In June, the market price of ammonium chloride significantly decreased, with the market price dropping from 627.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 597.50 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 4.78%. The price at the end of the month decreased by 62.42% year-on-year. The downstream Aluminium chlorohydrate market declined slightly, with the market price falling from 1768.75 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 1721.25 yuan/ton at the end of the month, down 2.69%, and the price at the end of the month fell 22.81% year on year. The downstream market has slightly declined, and downstream manufacturers have weak enthusiasm for purchasing hydrochloric acid.

Looking at the future market: In mid to early July, the hydrochloric acid market may experience slight fluctuations and gains. The price of upstream liquid chlorine rose sharply at the end of the month, and the cost support increased. The downstream market of ammonium chloride and Aluminium chlorohydrate declined slightly, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was weak. Analysts from Business Society believe that the recent market for hydrochloric acid may experience slight fluctuations and gains.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the formaldehyde market in Shandong fluctuated and fell in June. At the beginning of the month, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1103.33 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1060.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.93%. The current price has decreased by 17.19% compared to last year.

formaldehyde

In June, the market price of formaldehyde in the Shandong region decreased. From the above chart, it can be seen that formaldehyde has been mainly fluctuating and declining in the past three months, and the market has continued to decline this month. As of June 26th, the mainstream market price in Shandong region is 950-1150 yuan/ton. In June, the raw material methanol first fell and then rose. Formaldehyde manufacturers started operating normally, but downstream panel factories had weak demand. When methanol fell, formaldehyde followed suit. However, when methanol rose, the rise in formaldehyde was weak, and the overall formaldehyde market was at a low level.

Upstream methanol situation: In June, the domestic methanol market first fell and then rose. The reason for the decline was due to the lower coal prices, weakened support for methanol production costs, weak traditional demand entering the off-season, and some methanol parking facilities recovering. Overall, the supply in the mainland market is still relatively sufficient. The reason for the increase in late October is the rebound in coal prices, good cost support, and the methanol market following the cost increase.

Recently, the methanol market has been mainly fluctuating and rising, with good cost support. However, downstream sheet metal factories are in the off-season of the industry and have limited purchasing capacity. Therefore, formaldehyde analysts from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society predict that the price of formaldehyde in Shandong will mainly increase slightly in the near future.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of the Business Society, the overall trend of steam coal is up this week. On June 24th, the energy index stood at 887 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 43.18% from the cycle’s highest point of 1561 points (2021-10-21), and an increase of 73.58% from the lowest point of 511 points on March 1st, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present)

In terms of origin, the coal mines in the production area maintain normal production, with the main focus on implementing long-term cooperative shipping, and the overall coal supply is stable. The rise in coal prices tends to flatten out during the holiday period.

In terms of downstream ports, port prices have slightly increased this week. The main reason for the increase is that with the widespread high temperature weather and the arrival of peak summer, the demand for thermal power has increased rapidly, and the inventory of power plants has decreased, resulting in an increase in demand. The resumption of work and production by non electricity consuming enterprises has led to an increase in energy consumption and an increase in the demand for electricity in the industry.

The production of raw coal remains stable, and imports continue to grow at a high level. In May, the production of raw coal reached 390 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, a slowdown of 0.3 percentage points compared to April, and the daily average production was 12.43 million tons. The import of coal reached 39.58 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 92.6%, which was 19.9 percentage points faster than April. From January to May, the production of raw coal reached 1.91 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%. 180 million tons of imported coal, a year-on-year increase of 89.6%

Analysts from Business Society believe that the overall supply of thermal coal in terms of origin is relatively stable. In terms of downstream ports, due to the recent hot weather, there has been an increase in demand for power plants during peak summer. The demand for non electricity has recently increased. On the cost side, there is positive support for coal prices, but as prices rise, there is a resistance mentality towards high prices in the downstream market. It is expected that the consolidation operation of thermal coal prices will be the main focus in the later stage, depending on the downstream market demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the formaldehyde market in Shandong has recently declined. At the beginning of the week, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1076.67 yuan/ton, while at the end of the week, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1060.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.55%. The current price has decreased by 18.04% compared to last year.

formaldehyde

Recently, the price of formaldehyde in the Shandong region has fluctuated and fallen. From the above chart, it can be seen that the formaldehyde market has been below the main trend in the past two months, and the market has continued to decline slightly this week. As of June 21st, the mainstream market price in Shandong region is 950-1150 yuan/ton. In the early part of this week, the price of raw material methanol was weak and consolidated, with poor cost support, significant pressure on formaldehyde inventory, and a weak decline in the market. However, by the 21st, there was already a trend of stopping the decline and recovering.

Upstream methanol situation: In the early part of this week, the domestic methanol market was weak and sorted out. With the arrival of high-temperature weather, there are signs of stabilizing coal prices on the cost side, but there has been no significant improvement in the demand side, and the methanol cost side is still relatively empty. At the same time, the supply continues to increase, inventory is expected to continue to increase, and market confidence is insufficient. Downstream and traders mainly purchase according to demand. However, on the 21st, the methanol market rose. The ex factory price of methanol in the southern region of Shandong was set at around 2010-2030 yuan/ton for factory withdrawal in foreign exchange, while the delivery price in Linyi was set at around 2070-2080 yuan/ton for delivery in foreign exchange. The local methanol factory in central Shandong quoted a price of 2150-2180 yuan/ton for self delivery from the factory. The negotiated price range for methanol in the Dongying region of Shandong is 2010-2020 yuan/ton.

Recently, the methanol market has been rising, with good cost support and a high probability of formaldehyde following the trend. Therefore, formaldehyde analysts from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society predict that the price of formaldehyde in Shandong will mainly increase in the near future.