This week (3.10-17), the domestic ammonia market generally fell, with prices in major production areas such as Shandong, Hebei, Shanxi, and Lianghu experiencing varying degrees of decline. According to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, as of Friday, the drop in liquid ammonia in Shandong Province was 5.67%. This is mainly due to the centralized resumption of production of maintenance enterprises in central and southern China, resulting in a surge in supply, coupled with a negative agricultural demand window, and a significant price decline due to the imbalance between supply and demand in the market. Currently, the mainstream price of liquid ammonia in Shandong is 4100-4300 yuan/ton.

From the perspective of supply, the overall operating rate of domestic manufacturers has increased, especially in the northern region, where manufacturers’ devices are operating normally, gradually accumulating inventory to guide manufacturers to continuously reduce their listing prices. According to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, manufacturers in Shandong generally lowered their prices by around 200 yuan/ton within the week. Many devices in the southern region have resumed production, and the supply increase has further exacerbated the contradiction between supply and demand in the market.

On the demand side, the tight supply and demand situation in the ammonia market has significantly eased in the first ten days, and agricultural demand has weakened, but industrial demand cannot be followed up in a timely manner. It is also reasonable for the high price of liquid ammonia to fall back. In terms of downstream urea, according to the monitoring by the Business News Agency, urea continued its decline, with a weekly decline of 0.82%. Due to the withdrawal of agricultural demand and the end of the peak season of returning green fertilizer, the procurement volume of composite fertilizer and board market declined. The weakening of downstream demand support is an important reason for the decline of liquid ammonia.

From the perspective of the industrial chain, the cost side also remained negative. In particular, the price of liquefied natural gas fell significantly, with a weekly decline of 7.3%. The sharp decline in natural gas has had a significant impact on southwest gas head ammonia companies, providing ammonia companies with conditions for price reduction sales under the generally light market volume. The coal market has maintained a weak range of adjustment and has also weakened to some extent this week, with a weekly decline of 0.87% for steam coal. Overall, the ammonia market is facing downward pressure on costs.

Future Forecast:

Analysts from the Business Society believe that from the supply side, some ammonia enterprises may have switched to urea production or eased the supply pressure in the ammonia market in the near future, which may result in insufficient action in the future ammonia market. However, the demand side will still face pressure in the future, with agricultural demand falling into a window period and industrial demand also weak. Therefore, the supply and demand game will intensify in the near future. Superimposed by the negative impact of lower pressure on upstream raw coal and natural gas, the ammonia market is expected to maintain a weak overall pattern in the near future.

This week (3.13~3.20), chloroform market weakened and fell. According to data from the Business News Agency, as of March 20, the price of chloroform bulk water in Shandong was 3275 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 3.68% compared to last Monday’s 3400 yuan/ton. The downstream trichloromethane refrigerant market has gradually entered the traditional peak season, with prices rising and there is a demand for replenishment of trichloromethane. However, the methane chloride unit has started at a high level, the supply of trichloromethane is loose, the factory price of trichloromethane has been lowered, and the mainstream offers in the trichloromethane market have declined slightly.

This week (3.13~3.20), the start of the methane chloride device fluctuated slightly, and the 200000 ton/year methane chloride device in Jiangsu Meilan was shut down for maintenance. However, the start of trichloromethane is still at a high level, with a loose supply side.

This week (3.13~3.20), the price of raw material methanol decreased slightly, and the cost support for chloroform was weak. According to the business news agency, as of March 20th, the spot price of methanol was 2633 yuan/ton, down 0.54% from 2647 yuan/ton last Monday. The low consolidation of international crude oil prices, coupled with fluctuations in the domestic raw material coal range, will not lead to a significant upward trend in methanol prices in the near future, and the cost of chloroform is expected to be stable and weak.

On the one hand, the total production quota of R22 will be reduced by 19% to 181800 tons in 2023. On the other hand, since the arrival of the traditional peak season in March, the price of R22 has continued to rise, and there is a replenishment demand for chloroform. However, due to the impact of quota reduction, the overall demand continues to decrease compared to previous years.

According to methane chloride data analysts from Business News, although the demand for chloroform is currently supported, the supply side is loose, coupled with a decline in raw material prices, and it is expected that the market for chloroform will consolidate in a narrow range in the short term.

Price trend

Recently, the domestic ABS market is weak, and the spot price has been reduced in a narrow range. According to data monitoring by the Business News Agency, as of March 20, the average price of ABS sample products was 11825 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.07% compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Supply: The current high load situation in the ABS industry has slightly improved, but overall construction is still above 80%. There is abundant on-site spot supply. Last week, due to the entry of new materials into the market, competition intensified, and supply side pressure was on the high side. Domestic inventory has accumulated, and the factory price of petrochemical plants has declined under pressure.

In terms of raw materials: Recently, the overall performance of ABS upstream three materials is weak. The acrylonitrile market has declined slightly since March. The price of raw materials decreased, and the cost of acrylonitrile declined; The supply side of acrylonitrile has declined slightly due to the shutdown and maintenance of Koroor and the load reduction operation of SECCO. The acrylonitrile market is currently showing a slight deadlock.

Recently, the domestic butadiene market rose first and then fell. Last week, the external quotation of Sinopec Junior High School was raised, which once boosted the mentality of merchants. However, with the production of Dongming Petrochemical Unit and the restart of Zhejiang Petrochemical Unit 2, the market supply has increased significantly, while the main downstream Chuanhua cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber unit unexpectedly shut down, resulting in a significant contradiction between supply and demand, and the butadiene market has turned downward.

Last week, the styrene market in Shandong fluctuated and fell. Spot demand for styrene is poor, international oil prices continue to decline, and cost support is moderate. It is expected that short-term volatility in the styrene market will be dominated by lower prices.

Demand: Recently, downstream factories, including the main terminal appliance industry, have been generally proactive in stocking, and some manufacturers still have raw material inventory to digest. Overall demand improvement is limited, actual transaction volume is weak, and the smoothness of on-site delivery is poor.

Aftermarket Forecast

Recently, the overall trend of ABS upstream three materials has been weak, with poor support for ABS cost side. The high starting point of petrochemical plants has slightly decreased, and the market supply continues to be abundant. Demand side support is poor, merchants’ mentality is weak, and operations tend to yield profits and take orders. The process of reducing the negative load of petrochemical plants will take time, and it is expected that the ABS market will continue to digest the contradiction between supply and demand and operate weakly in the short term.

Price trend

Recent domestic PA66 market trends. According to data monitoring by Business News Agency, on March 17th, the average ex-factory price of domestic PA66 was 20500 yuan/ton, with a decrease of -2.38% compared to the price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

This week, the market for PA66 weakened, and spot prices remained stagnant after falling. In terms of supply, the overall monthly load of the domestic PA66 industry is currently around 65%, unchanged from last week. Enterprise operations continue to be biased towards destocking, with general inventory pressure and relatively abundant on-site supply. On the upstream side, the raw material hexamethylene diamine fluctuated in a narrow range, while on the adipic acid side, due to the weakness of pure benzene, the load was increased before, and the market was under pressure before finishing operation. PA66 raw material side has poor support for spot goods. In terms of demand, the situation is weak and difficult to change. Terminal enterprises just need to follow up on their purchases and maintenance. Buyers generally have strong resistance to high-priced sources of goods. It is expected that PA66 may continue its weak consolidation market in the short term.

Aftermarket Forecast

The spot price of PA66 fell this week. The raw material market is relatively soft, weakening the support for PA66 cost side. The load of PA66 enterprises remained stable, and the overall inventory position was average. Demand side delivery is weak, and it is expected that PA66 may continue to operate weakly in the short term.

Trade name: hydrochloric acid

Latest price (March 16th): 190.00 yuan/ton

On March 16th, the domestic market price of hydrochloric acid rose significantly, increasing by 14 yuan/ton or 7.95% compared to March 15th, and a year-on-year decrease of 44.32% compared to the same period last year. Recently, the market of upstream liquid chlorine has increased significantly, with increased cost support. The market of downstream polyaluminum chloride has declined slightly, and the market of ammonium chloride has consolidated at a high level. The willingness to purchase downstream is generally low.

Recently, the domestic market price of hydrochloric acid has fluctuated slightly, with an average market price of around 200 yuan/ton.