According to the monitoring data of the Business News Agency, the price of flake caustic soda was weak this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 3733.33 yuan/ton, and the average market price at the weekend was 3500 yuan/ton. The price fell 6.25%, down 15.32% year on year. This week, the market remained weak.

Upstream caustic soda

According to the survey data of the Business Agency, the domestic caustic soda price fell this week. The average market price in Shandong is about 800-870 yuan/ton. The ex-factory price of 32% of the mainstream liquid caustic soda in Hebei is about 850-1150 yuan/ton. The price of caustic soda in the site is weak. The overall supply of caustic soda is relatively sufficient, the downstream demand is less than expected, the intra-field trading atmosphere is weak, and there is lack of favorable factors to support, and the downstream is cautious.

The analysts of the Business Agency believe that the market for caustic soda is weak, the market trading atmosphere is general, the downstream demand is weak, and the wait-and-see mentality is dominant, and the enthusiasm for entering the market is general. The operators are cautious and the price center continues to decline. The supply of low-price goods in the market has increased without the support of favorable factors. In general, the short-term or weak operation of the price of caustic soda depends on the downstream market demand.

The domestic market price of phthalic anhydride rose. As of the 13th, the price of phthalic anhydride was 8637.5 yuan/ton, up 1.92% from the price of 8475 yuan/ton on the 6th, down 5.6% year on year.

Supply side: stable operation of the device and normal supply of goods

In the near future, the domestic phthalic anhydride plant has operated steadily, and the domestic phthalic anhydride plant has operated stably. At present, the domestic phthalic anhydride operating rate is about 60%, the supply of goods is normal, the delivery of phthalic anhydride has improved, and the market price of phthalic anhydride has risen.

Cost side: the price of orthobenzene market rises

The price trend of domestic ortho-phenyl rose. As of the 13th, the price of ortho-phenyl was 8500 yuan/ton, and the price trend of this week rose by 2.41%. The ortho-phenyl supply was normal, and the plant operation in the field was stable, but the port inventory declined. The rise of ortho-phenyl price brought some cost support to the phthalic anhydride market, and the market price trend of phthalic anhydride rose.

On the demand side: the trend of DOP market is volatile, and procurement is based on demand

The price trend of downstream DOP market fluctuated, with a slight decline of 0.6% this week. At present, the domestic DOP price is 9960 yuan/ton. Domestic DOP enterprises have started to operate steadily, and the demand for phthalic anhydride is mainly based on demand. The mainstream price of DOP is 9900-10000 yuan/ton. The demand of plasticizer industry is weak, and the price of phthalic anhydride is low due to the fluctuation of DOP price, but the overall price rises slightly due to the support of raw materials.

In the future, the price trend of ortho-xylene is mainly rising in the short term, but the market of downstream plasticizer industry is fluctuating, the supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, and the demand is general. It is expected that the market price trend of ortho-xylene phthalic anhydride will rise slightly in the later period.

1、 Price trend

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price fell first and then rose this week. This week, the average price of domestic isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream market fell from 7300 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 7100.00 yuan/ton on March 8, down 2.74%. Then it rose to 7266.67 yuan/ton at the end of the week, up 2.35%. Overall, the price of isobutyraldehyde fell 0.46% this week. Compared with the same period last year, it fell 48.58% year-on-year. The isobutyraldehyde commodity index on March 12 was 36.89, which was the same as yesterday, down 65.06% from the cycle’s highest point of 105.58 (2021-09-16), and up 22.48% from the lowest point of 30.12 on October 7, 2022. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2021 to now)

2、 Market analysis

The quotations of mainstream isobutyraldehyde manufacturers rose and fell each other this week.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the propylene market in the upstream raw material market of isobutyraldehyde fell first and then rose this week. The price fell from 7516.60 yuan/ton on March 4 to 7334.60 yuan/ton on March 7, a decrease of 2.42%, and then rose to 7464.60 yuan/ton on March 10, an increase of 1.77%. On the whole, the propylene price fell by 0.69% this week. The year-on-year decline was 18.60%. The market price of upstream raw materials fell slightly, and the cost support was insufficient. Affected by the supply and demand side, the price of isobutyraldehyde was negatively affected. From the perspective of the downstream industry chain, the market price of neopentyl glycol fell slightly, from 11200.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 10866.67 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 2.98%. The market price of neopentyl glycol fell slightly, and the downstream demand weakened, which had a negative impact on isobutyraldehyde.

3、 Future prospects

The market trend of isobutyraldehyde in the middle and late March may be mainly volatile. The upstream propylene market fell slightly over the weekend, with insufficient cost support. The market of neopentyl glycol in the downstream has a downward trend, and the purchasing enthusiasm in the downstream is general. The isobutyraldehyde analyst of the Business Club believes that the short-term isobutyraldehyde market may suffer from small fluctuations and falls under the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other factors.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of the business agency, the domestic PC market fell this week, and the spot prices of various brands were generally reduced. As of March 10, the reference offer of the sample PC enterprises of the Business Club was about 16333.33 yuan/ton, up – 0.81% from the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials: it can be seen from the above figure that the recent bisphenol A market is weak, phenol and acetone at the raw material end are strong, and the cost of downstream bisphenol A plants is increased. However, the downstream epoxy resin and other products continued to be sluggish, with insufficient orders, and the demand side was negative for the market. In addition, the supply of bisphenol A is sufficient, resulting in an increase in the contradiction between supply and demand. It is expected that bisphenol A will be weak in the short term.

On the supply side, the overall operating rate of domestic PC fell to about 69% this week, which was lower than that in the previous period but still at a high level year-on-year,. In addition, there has been a new capacity to release the negative market, and there will be a resumption of production line next week. On the whole, the supply side has insufficient support for the spot.

Demand: Recently, the downstream of PC just needs to maintain production, and the operators have a heavy wait-and-see attitude. At present, the starting position of the terminal enterprises is not high, and there is a certain stock of raw materials that needs to be digested, and the on-site delivery is weak. The traders’ mentality is weak, and the operation is biased to yield profits and take orders.

Aftermarket forecast

The PC market fell this week, and the upstream bisphenol A market weakened, weakening the support for PC costs. The load of domestic polymerization plants was reduced in a narrow range, but it was still at a high level. At the same time, the demand side failed to follow up, and the pressure on the supply side increased sharply. It is expected that the PC market will continue to weaken due to the supply and demand contradiction in the near future.

According to the monitoring data of the Business Agency, since March, the demand of terminal printing and paper industry has been supported by rigid demand, and the market of hydrogen peroxide has risen. On March 1, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 750 yuan/ton. On March 7, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 796 yuan/ton, up 6.22%.

The market of hydrogen peroxide rose as terminal demand increased

Since March, the demand of the terminal paper printing industry has increased, the quantity of hydrogen peroxide purchased is acceptable, the transaction of hydrogen peroxide market has improved, and hydrogen peroxide manufacturers have continuously raised the factory price of hydrogen peroxide, and the overall market has risen. The mainstream price of hydrogen peroxide in Shandong is 750 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of hydrogen peroxide in Anhui is 850 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of hydrogen peroxide in Hangzhou is 1150 yuan/ton; The overall price rose by 50 yuan/ton.

Li Bing, an agricultural product analyst at the Business Society, believes that the demand of terminal printing and paper industry is supported, and the future market of hydrogen peroxide is expected to rise.