This week, the spot tin market price (1.6-1.13) fluctuated downward. The average price in the domestic market was 202360 yuan/ton at the end of last week and 220660 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up 9.04% this week.

The commodity price K-bar chart uses the concept of price trend K-line to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates: rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the above figure that the tin price has risen continuously after November 2022 due to the influence of macro factors.

This week, the futures market of Shanghai and tin rose sharply in the week, with an increase of 7.46%. However, the recent continuous rise of tin prices was mainly boosted by the expected positive macroeconomic factors and the market’s risk aversion mentality, which affected the performance of funds on the floor. In the spot market, affected by the futures market, tin prices rose this week. Basically, although the production of tin mines in Peru is suspended and the market is expected to cause supply tension, the impact is limited at present. The root cause of this round of rise is still the expected improvement of downstream demand. Recently, the electronic consumption industry has gradually warmed up. The market expects that the overall demand for tin will rise to some extent in 2023, boosting the market mentality. As the holiday approaches, the upstream smelter starts to operate on a low level, and the market supply is slightly tight. The stock preparation before the holiday has ended, and the subsequent market performance needs to wait until the market is clear after the holiday.

The non-ferrous index stood at 1204 points on January 14, unchanged from yesterday, down 21.72% from the highest point of 1538 points in the cycle (2021-10-18), and up 98.35% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24, 2015. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

According to the price monitoring of the Business Agency, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the second week of 2023 (1.9-1.13), there were 9 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that rose on a month-on-month basis, including 1 commodity that rose more than 5%, accounting for 4.3% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The top three commodities were tin (7.06%), copper (3.72%) and aluminum (3.41%). There were seven commodities that fell on a month-on-month basis, with cobalt (- 2.50%), dysprosium oxide (- 1.80%) and lead (- 1.68%) among the top three products. The average rise and fall of this week was 0.39%.

Domestic sodium pyrosulfite price trend chart

According to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, the domestic sodium metabisulfite price remained stable this week. The average price of industrial sodium metabisulfite at the beginning of the week was 2350.00 yuan/ton, and the average price at the end of the week was 2350.00 yuan/ton.

In January, the centralized preparation of goods in the downstream of the previous year was basically completed, and the domestic logistics gradually stopped at the end of the year, and the domestic market price of sodium metabisulfite and sodium metabisulfite was stable and advanced as a whole. This week, the domestic market price of sodium metabisulfite was 2350-2500 yuan/ton, most of which were concentrated around 2350 yuan/ton. (The above prices refer to the external quotations of domestic mainstream enterprises, and some enterprises that have not been quoted are not included in the scope temporarily. The prices are for reference only and have nothing to do with the final pricing of the manufacturers. For details, please contact the manufacturers for consultation).

As of January 13, the price of domestic soda ash rose slightly by 0.6%, the price of sulfur rose by 2.36%, and the price of upstream raw materials rose slightly. The cost will play a certain role in supporting the market price of sodium pyrosulfite in the future.

Aftermarket forecast

Analysts from the Business News Agency believe that the domestic sodium metabisulfite trade is gradually weakening towards the end of the year, and it is expected that the domestic market price of sodium metabisulfite will continue to move steadily in the short term.

On January 11, the quotation range of 1 # lead ingot in the domestic spot lead market was about 15250-15400 yuan/ton, with an average price of 15325 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan/ton from the previous trading day.

Recently, the lead price has declined as a whole. Although the price has declined, the market trading is still weak near the Spring Festival, and there is no demand for bargain-hunting and replenishment in the market. Basically, lead has not changed much and remains in the off-season market. On the supply side, all primary lead enterprises have resumed production and stopped production, and the overall operating rate has increased slightly. In terms of downstream demand, after the weather turned cold, battery manufacturers entered the seasonal off-season, the domestic market was approaching the Spring Festival holiday, and the pre-holiday reserve warehouse was almost at an end. Battery enterprises began to enter the holiday, with a significant decline in the operating rate and a decline in the demand for lead ingots. Recently, the market price has continued to decline, the domestic inventory is in the accumulation stage, and the market transaction is cold. In general, the lead ingot market has entered a seasonal off-season, with weak supply and demand in the lead market. The short-term trend continues to follow the macro factors, and there is still some room for decline in the long term.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of the business agency, the price of aniline has stabilized this week. The price was 9600 yuan/ton on January 3 and 9600 yuan/ton on January 6.

2、 Analysis and comment

In terms of cost, pure benzene: the basic level of pure benzene continues to be weak, the downstream is more wait-and-see, and the purchase intention is general; Crude oil continued to fall in the week, and the cost of pure benzene market formed a negative pressure; Downstream styrene slightly strengthened, boosting the pure benzene market. At the beginning of the week, the inventory of pure benzene in the East China port decreased slightly, and the supply pressure eased. On Friday (January 6), the price of pure benzene was 6650 yuan/ton, down 0.31% from last week and up 1.46% from the same period last year.

Nitric acid: The price of domestic nitric acid was stable this week. The price was 2433 yuan/ton on January 3 and 2433 yuan/ton on January 6. The price remained unchanged last week, up 2.82% from the same period last year.

Due to the tight spot supply of aniline in the northern region, the market was bullish, and the price rose continuously in the first half of the week. However, the downstream of the terminal is in the traditional off-season, and the demand for aniline is difficult to be significantly improved. With the favorable supply turning weak, aniline stabilizes and the wait-and-see increases.

3、 Aftermarket expectation

At present, the supply and demand of aniline market is temporarily stable, and there is no more good news in the market. It is expected that aniline will stabilize in the short term. Continue to pay attention to the trend of raw materials, the dynamics of aniline plants and the downstream pickup sentiment.

1、 Price trend

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic market price of neopentyl glycol is temporarily stable this week. This week, the average price of neopentyl glycol in the mainstream market in China was 9133.33 yuan/ton. Compared with the same period last year, it fell 38.7% year-on-year. The neopentyl glycol commodity index on January 8 was 44.02, which was the same as yesterday, down 57.51% from the cycle’s highest point of 103.61 (2021-09-22), and up 2.25% from the lowest point of 43.05 on November 28, 2022. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2021 to now)

2、 Market analysis

The price of the mainstream manufacturers of neopentyl glycol is temporarily stable this week: the distribution price of neopentyl glycol at the weekend of Jinan Aochen Wanhua is 9000 yuan/ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the weekend of last week; The distribution price of Zibo De Synthetic Fengxin Pentylenediol at the weekend was 9200 yuan/ton, which was temporarily stable compared with that at the end of last week. The distribution price of Shandong Kemico Neopentyl Glycol at the weekend is 9200 yuan/ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the end of last week.

From the perspective of the upstream raw material market of neopentyl glycol, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price rose slightly this week. The average price of domestic isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream market rose from 6466.67 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 6733.33 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up 4.12%. The market price of upstream raw materials rose slightly, and the cost support increased. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a positive impact on the price of neopentyl glycol.

3、 Future prospects

In the middle and late January, the market trend of neopentyl glycol may fluctuate slightly. The upstream isobutyraldehyde market rose slightly, the cost support increased, the downstream paint market was general, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm weakened. The neopentyl glycol analyst of the business agency believes that the short-term neopentyl glycol market is mainly affected by the supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects, and the market price may fluctuate slightly.