According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of coking coal fell this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 2551.67 yuan/ton, and at the weekend it was 2491.67 yuan/ton, down 2.35% and 1.06% compared with the same period last year. On January 6, the energy index was 1083 points, down 1 point from yesterday, down 30.62% from the peak of 1561 points (2021-10-21) in the cycle, and up 111.94% from the lowest point of 511 points on March 1, 2016. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present)

In terms of origin, due to the approaching of the annual customs and the impact of safety inspection, the supply of coking coal has decreased, and most coal mine quotations have been temporarily stable, but a small part of them have been lowered, so the market trading atmosphere is general. In terms of downstream coke market, the first round of increase and decrease of coke market was implemented during New Year’s Day, with the current round of decrease of 100-110 yuan/ton. At present, the mood of coking market is weak, and it is difficult to have a good expectation. Although there is a demand for winter storage, the current stock is basically nearing the end. The festival atmosphere is getting stronger, but the transactions on the floor are relatively light.

From the perspective of coking coal analysts of the business community, the delivery and investment atmosphere of coking coal is general, some coal mines have lowered their quotations, and the demand for coking coal in the downstream coke sector is general in the near future. The Spring Festival is approaching, and the stock preparation is nearing the end. The purchase of coking coal is mainly based on demand. From a comprehensive perspective, the weak operation of coking coal prices is dominant, and the downstream market demand is specific.

In 2022, the market of Shandong isooctanol fluctuate and fall. The average price of isooctanol mainstream market in Shandong at the beginning of the year was 10133.33 yuan/ton, and the average price of isooctanol mainstream at the end of the year was 9733.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.95% in the year. The lowest price of the whole year was 8066.67 yuan/ton in the middle of July, and the highest price was 14533.33 yuan/ton in the first ten days of February, with a maximum drop of 44.50% in the year.

From the monthly K column chart of isooctanol, the market of isooctanol in 2022 will fluctuate, with more gains and less losses. The highest increase was 19.08% in January and the highest decrease was 26.81% in June. On January 3, the isooctanol commodity index was 70.10, down 1.47 points from yesterday, down 49.02% from the cycle’s highest point of 137.50 (2021-08-08), and up 99.43% from the lowest point of 35.15 on February 1, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Review of isooctanol market in 2022

Phase I: From early January to early February, the market of isooctanol rose sharply. Upstream propylene prices rose sharply, with strong cost support. The price rose from 7548.60 yuan/ton in early January to 8340.60 yuan/ton in early February, an increase of 10.49%. Downstream DOP market rose sharply, and downstream demand was good. The DOP price rose from 9775.00 yuan/ton in early January to 13400.00 yuan/ton in early February, up 37.08%. The downstream DBP rose 34.06% and the downstream DOTP rose 38.63%. The upstream and downstream made joint efforts, and the price of isooctanol rose significantly. The price rose from 10133.33 yuan/ton in early January to 14533.33 yuan/ton in early February, an increase of 43.42%.

The second stage: from early February to the end of May, the market of isooctanol fluctuated widely. The upstream propylene price fluctuated slightly, with average cost support. The price dropped from 8340.60 yuan/ton in the first ten days of February to 8070.60 yuan/ton at the end of May, a decrease of 3.24%. Downstream DOP market fell in shock, and downstream demand weakened. The DOP price fell from 13400.00 yuan/ton in the first ten days of February to 11912.50 yuan/ton at the end of May, a decline of 11.1%. Downstream DBP fell 16.22% and downstream DOTP fell 10.52%. The upstream support was general, while the downstream demand weakened, and the price of isooctanol fell in shock. The price dropped from 14533.33 yuan/ton in the first ten days of February to 12466.67 yuan/ton at the end of May, a decline of 14.22%.

The third stage: from the beginning of June to the end of July, isooctanol market fell precipitously. The upstream propylene price fell sharply, and the cost support was insufficient. The price dropped from 8080.60 yuan/ton at the beginning of June to 7318.60 yuan/ton at the end of July, a decline of 9.43%. Downstream DOP market fell sharply, and downstream demand was seriously insufficient. The DOP price fell from 11912.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of June to 8887.50 yuan/ton at the end of July, a decline of 25.39%. Downstream DBP fell 14.24% and downstream DOTP fell 25.77%. The upstream support is insufficient, the downstream demand continues to decline, multiple negative, and the price of isooctanol drops sharply. The price dropped from 12466.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of June to 8100.00 yuan/ton at the end of July, a decrease of 35.03%.

The fourth stage: from the beginning of August to the end of December, the market of isooctanol fluctuated upward. The upstream propylene price fell in a narrow range, with average cost support. The price dropped from 7348.60 yuan/ton at the beginning of August to 7244.60 yuan/ton at the end of December, down 1.42%. Downstream DOP market fluctuated and rose, and downstream demand was good. The DOP price rose from 8925.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of August to 9750.00 yuan/ton at the end of December, an increase of 9.24%. The downstream DBP rose 9.54% and the downstream DOTP rose 9.19%. The upstream support is general, the downstream demand increases, and the price of isooctanol rises significantly. The price rose from 8100.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of August to 9733.33 yuan/ton at the end of December, an increase of 20.16%.

Future outlook: In the first ten days of January, the market of isooctanol may rise in a small amplitude. After New Year’s Day, the upstream propylene market was consolidated at a high level, with good cost support. Downstream plasticizer market rose and demand increased. On the whole, the recent market of isooctanol may rise slightly.

According to the data monitored by the business community, the domestic carbon black price on December 31 was 12050 yuan/ton, and this week the overall domestic carbon black market price was down.

On the cost side: The price of high-temperature coal tar as raw material fluctuated narrowly this week, down slightly, with a decline of about 50-200 yuan/ton, and the cost side support of carbon black enterprises weakened. At present, coke enterprises have improved their enthusiasm to start construction. Downstream deep processing enterprises and carbon black enterprises, carbon black enterprises, are operating under pressure and have a heavy pressure on the price of coal tar. In the absence of obvious advantages, the price of coal tar has been corrected.

Supply and demand: Towards the end of the year, the number of enterprises stopping production for maintenance has increased, and the operating rate has declined this week. It is expected that the overall construction may continue to decline. Affected by weak demand, some carbon black manufacturers slow down their shipments and the carbon black inventory has increased.

In terms of downstream tire enterprises, the construction is insufficient, and there is no good news to boost the market. At present, the tire market sales are average, and there is no obvious improvement. The finished product inventory is sufficient, and the demand for carbon black is poor.

In general, the price of raw material high temperature coal tar has declined, and there is no obvious benefit in the downstream. It is expected that the price of carbon black market will be adjusted in the short term, and attention should be paid to the raw material and downstream market dynamics in the later period.

Ethylene oxide price kept stable in December

According to the data of the business agency, the average price of ethylene oxide in the domestic spot market on December 29 was 6800 yuan/ton, which continued the relatively stable market since November.

At present, the listing price of ethylene oxide in various regions in China is basically stable, and the factory listing price of mainstream markets in various regions is as follows:

The ethylene oxide market in East China is 6800 yuan/ton; Ethylene oxide market in South China is 6800 yuan/ton; The listing price of ethylene oxide market in central China is 6800 yuan/ton; The listed price of ethylene oxide in North China is 6800 yuan/ton, and that of some manufacturers in Northeast China is 6600 yuan/ton.

Overview of ethylene oxide industry chain

On the whole, weak downstream demand is the main reason for the weak and stable price of ethylene oxide. From the perspective of price transmission, the demand for downstream products has weakened, the price has declined, and the price support for ethylene oxide has weakened.

In December, the downstream ethylene glycol price was relatively stable, but the main downstream polycarboxylic acid water reducer monomer was subject to insufficient terminal building construction conditions, and the demand was expected to weaken significantly.

Upstream ethylene: On December 28, the CFR average price of Asian ethylene in Northeast Asia was 870 dollars/ton, down 10 dollars/ton from the beginning of the month; The average price of CFR in Southeast Asia is 910 dollars/ton, up 30 dollars/ton from the beginning of the month.

 
Fundamentals Overview

At the current supply end, except for long-term shutdown devices in the early stage, the devices in production are basically operating normally, and the load is adjusted as required. In October, a new 730000 tons of new devices were put into operation in Satellite Petrochemical, and the domestic ethylene oxide production capacity rose to 7.51 million tons. At present, the capacity operation rate is about 60%.

In terms of demand, the downstream demand is weak, and the main downstream polycarboxylic acid water reducer monomer market has been weak and stable recently. The demand for polycarboxylic acid superplasticizer monomer at the downstream of the main stream is expected to weaken greatly due to insufficient terminal building construction conditions. At present, the inventory of polycarboxylic acid superplasticizer monomer enterprises has accumulated to a medium high level, the enthusiasm of enterprises for production has decreased, and the purchasing atmosphere for ethylene oxide is weak. The inquiry list is limited within the week, and the overall trading atmosphere is cold. At present, the downward space of the offer is limited, and the actual transaction is mainly weak. The expectation of demand recovery before the year is weak, the intention of terminal stocking is not high, and the short-term monomer market or deadlock is the main reason.

Future market forecast

The terminal demand is weak and the demand is restrained. At present, the price of ethylene oxide has been trading sideways for a long time, and the supply and demand fundamentals have not been improved. In December, ethylene oxide operated weakly and stably, and the future market may be difficult to change in the short term.

Plasticizer DBP price consolidation this week

According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of December 26, the DBP price was 9800 yuan/ton, up 1.38% from 9666.67 yuan/ton on December 18. The rising demand of raw material prices was less than expected, and the DBP prices rose in shock this week.

Adjustment of DBP raw material price fluctuation

According to the price monitoring of the business community, as of December 26, the price of phthalic anhydride was 8150 yuan/ton, down 0.31% from the price of 8175 yuan/ton on December 18. The price of ortho benzene fell, the cost of phthalic anhydride was adjusted weakly, the price of phthalic anhydride fell in shock, and the downward pressure on DBP remained.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, as of December 26, the price of n-butanol was 8566.67 yuan/ton, up 1.98% from 8400 yuan/ton on December 18. There is still a willingness to support the price of n-butanol in the market. The price of n-butanol rises in shock and the cost of DBP rises.

Future market expectation

Analysts of DBP data from the business association believed that the price of raw material phthalic anhydride fell slightly, the price of n-butanol rose, and the cost of DBP raw materials rose. In the future, the demand for DBP cost rise is less than expected, and the expected future DBP price volatility is stabilizing.