According to data monitoring by the Business News Agency, as of March 28, 2023, the domestic market price of butanone was referenced at 8300 yuan/ton. Compared to March 1, 2023 (the reference price of butanone was 8766 yuan/ton), the price was reduced by 466 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.32%.

As can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the Business Agency, since March (3.1-3.28), the overall domestic butanone market has shown a weak and declining trend. In early March, supported by the high cost of raw materials, the butanone market experienced a brief upward movement. As of March 10, butanone rose slightly by 1.14% in early March. However, downstream demand for butanone has consistently underperformed, with limited new orders and a weak market atmosphere. Therefore, due to the continued drag of insufficient demand side, the butanone market fell into a continuous downward trend in the middle and late March, and the market gravity continued to decline. As of March 28, the domestic butanone market price was referenced around 7800-8600 yuan/ton, with a decrease of about 300-500 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month.

Analysis of future market of butanone

At present, the overall transaction of butanone on the market is still cautious, and the downstream wait-and-see mood is strong. Buying and purchasing are mainly based on strict stock preparation. The butanone data analyst of the business agency believes that in the short term, the domestic butanone market will mainly adjust and operate in a narrow range, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the specific news changes on the supply and demand side.

1、 Price data

According to the bulk list data of the Business News Agency, the price of petroleum coke from local refiners fell sharply this week. On March 27, the average price in the Shandong market was 2151.50 yuan/ton, down 14.84% from the price of 2526.50 yuan/ton on March 20.

The petroleum coke commodity index on March 27 was 167.34, down 21.39 points from yesterday, down 59.06% from the cycle’s highest point of 408.70 points (2022-05-11), and up 150.17% from the lowest point of 66.89 points on March 28, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to September 30, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the price of petroleum coke in refineries fell sharply, and local refineries actively scheduled inventory, resulting in poor delivery and investment. Downstream enterprises were cautious in receiving goods. In addition to high domestic port inventory, the current petroleum coke market is still in a situation of oversupply.

This week, the international crude oil market fluctuated and rose, the pressure of the banking crisis eased, and the oil market rebounded from a low level. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25bp, which met market expectations and suggested that the pace of interest rate hikes would be suspended. The decline of the US dollar supported the rise of oil prices.

The price of calcined coke fell sharply this week; This week, metal silicon continued to explore under pressure, and the decline at the end of the week slowed down. As of March 27, the average price of 441 # metal silicon spot market in China was 16890 yuan/ton, down 1.97% on a weekly basis. The spot market transaction remained light, with some businesses selling at low prices, but it was difficult to improve the weak situation; Downstream electrolytic aluminum prices fluctuated and rose, as of March 27, the price was 18416.67 yuan/ton; Downstream aluminum carbon enterprises are cautious in purchasing, and lack enthusiasm for entering the market.

According to the petroleum coke analysts from Business News, the inventory of petroleum coke in domestic ports is currently at a high level for a long time, with sufficient market supply, serious shortage of procurement at the downstream demand end, and excessive market supply. In the near future, the situation of oversupply in the domestic market will continue; Local refining enterprises are facing difficulties in shipping, actively reducing prices to remove inventory, while downstream enterprises are cautious in purchasing, and lack enthusiasm for entering the market. It is expected that petroleum coke refining in the near future may continue to decline.

According to the price monitoring data of the Business Agency, as of March 24, 2023, the reference price of domestic n-propanol was 8050 yuan/ton, which was basically the same as that of March 19, 2023.

As can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the Business Agency, this week (3.20-3.24), the overall range of the domestic n-propanol market fluctuated slightly, with little change in downstream demand and purchase, while the market news was relatively calm. In the middle of the week, some n-propanol suppliers in Shandong Province slightly adjusted their prices based on factors such as their own inventory, with an adjustment range of around 100 yuan/ton. The overall n-propanol market was mainly characterized by large stability and small fluctuations. As of March 24th, the domestic market price of n-propanol in Shandong Province is around 7500-8000 yuan/ton, and the barrel price is around 9000 yuan/ton. The market price of n-propanol in Nanjing is around 9000-9500 yuan/ton. Distributors in various regions still have reservations about prices, and the difficulty in monitoring prices may lead to differences in the specific negotiation situation. There are also differences in each region, and negotiations based on actual orders are primarily conducted.

Prediction of future trend of n-propanol

Currently, the trading atmosphere of n-propanol on the market is moderate, and the downstream demand is relatively stable. As the atmosphere picks up, the terminal downstream construction may improve, and the n-propanol industry has a generally good mentality. The business agency’s n-propanol data analyst believes that in the short term, the domestic n-propanol market is generally stable, with a slight upward movement, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the changes in information on the supply and demand side.

DBP prices fluctuated and rose this week

According to data monitoring by the Business News Agency, as of March 23, the DBP price was 9750 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.59% compared to the DBP price of 9412.50 yuan/ton on March 1; Compared with the DBP price of 9587.50 yuan/ton on March 16, the increase was 1.69%. Plasticizer DBP enterprises started steadily, DBP supply was sufficient, and raw material prices were supported by rising prices. This week, DBP prices fluctuated and rose.

Raw material prices fluctuated and rose this week

According to the price monitoring by the Business Agency, as of March 23, the price of n-butanol was 7633.33 yuan/ton, up 4.09% from March 16, when the price of n-butanol was 7333.33 yuan/ton; The price of n-butanol increased by 8.53% compared to 7033.33 on March 1. The start of n-butanol enterprises is stable, downstream demand is temporarily stable, n-butanol prices fluctuate and rise, and DBP costs rise. In the future, the upward momentum of DBP increases, and downward pressure decreases.

According to the price monitoring by the Business Agency, as of March 23, the quotation for ortho phthalic anhydride was 8625 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.86% compared to the price of 8700 yuan/ton on March 16; Compared to the price of 8475 yuan/ton on March 1, the increase was 2.07%. The price of o-xylene has stabilized, and the willingness to stand up for phthalic anhydride remains. This week, the high price of phthalic anhydride has dropped, and the upward momentum of DBP has weakened.

Aftermarket expectations

DBP data analysts from the Business News Agency believe that plasticizer enterprises have started operations steadily this week, and the supply of DBP is sufficient; In terms of raw materials, the high price of phthalic anhydride fell, the price of n-butanol fluctuated and increased, and the cost of DBP raw materials increased. The demand for plasticizer DBP has temporarily stabilized due to rising costs, and the price of DBP has fluctuated and increased. In the future, the high price of phthalic anhydride has fallen, the support for DBP growth has weakened, and the upward momentum of DBP has weakened. It is expected that the price of DBP will fluctuate and consolidate in the future.

This week (3.10-17), the domestic ammonia market generally fell, with prices in major production areas such as Shandong, Hebei, Shanxi, and Lianghu experiencing varying degrees of decline. According to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, as of Friday, the drop in liquid ammonia in Shandong Province was 5.67%. This is mainly due to the centralized resumption of production of maintenance enterprises in central and southern China, resulting in a surge in supply, coupled with a negative agricultural demand window, and a significant price decline due to the imbalance between supply and demand in the market. Currently, the mainstream price of liquid ammonia in Shandong is 4100-4300 yuan/ton.

From the perspective of supply, the overall operating rate of domestic manufacturers has increased, especially in the northern region, where manufacturers’ devices are operating normally, gradually accumulating inventory to guide manufacturers to continuously reduce their listing prices. According to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, manufacturers in Shandong generally lowered their prices by around 200 yuan/ton within the week. Many devices in the southern region have resumed production, and the supply increase has further exacerbated the contradiction between supply and demand in the market.

On the demand side, the tight supply and demand situation in the ammonia market has significantly eased in the first ten days, and agricultural demand has weakened, but industrial demand cannot be followed up in a timely manner. It is also reasonable for the high price of liquid ammonia to fall back. In terms of downstream urea, according to the monitoring by the Business News Agency, urea continued its decline, with a weekly decline of 0.82%. Due to the withdrawal of agricultural demand and the end of the peak season of returning green fertilizer, the procurement volume of composite fertilizer and board market declined. The weakening of downstream demand support is an important reason for the decline of liquid ammonia.

From the perspective of the industrial chain, the cost side also remained negative. In particular, the price of liquefied natural gas fell significantly, with a weekly decline of 7.3%. The sharp decline in natural gas has had a significant impact on southwest gas head ammonia companies, providing ammonia companies with conditions for price reduction sales under the generally light market volume. The coal market has maintained a weak range of adjustment and has also weakened to some extent this week, with a weekly decline of 0.87% for steam coal. Overall, the ammonia market is facing downward pressure on costs.

Future Forecast:

Analysts from the Business Society believe that from the supply side, some ammonia enterprises may have switched to urea production or eased the supply pressure in the ammonia market in the near future, which may result in insufficient action in the future ammonia market. However, the demand side will still face pressure in the future, with agricultural demand falling into a window period and industrial demand also weak. Therefore, the supply and demand game will intensify in the near future. Superimposed by the negative impact of lower pressure on upstream raw coal and natural gas, the ammonia market is expected to maintain a weak overall pattern in the near future.