On December 1, the average production price of paraformaldehyde in Shandong was 5433.33 yuan/ton, and on December 14, the average production price of paraformaldehyde in Shandong was 5416.67 yuan/ton, down 0.31%. It fell 14.92% year on year.

Upstream methanol situation: domestic methanol market fluctuated, mainly due to supply and demand. In terms of supply, most production enterprises focus on de stocking, and traditional downstream enterprises also have early parking performance, resulting in weak overall demand performance.

Recently, the methanol market has a trend of shock and decline, and the cost support is poor. In addition, the logistics in Shandong is not smooth, and the polyformaldehyde analysts of the business community predict that the price may fall slightly.

1、 Price trend

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic market of imported potassium chloride is temporarily stable this week, with the price of 3883.33 yuan/ton. The arrival price of potassium chloride in domestic salt lakes this week is 3500-3600 yuan/ton. On December 11, the potassium chloride (import) commodity index was 102.19, unchanged from yesterday, 29.40% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 144.74 (2022-06-21), and 5.67% higher than the lowest point of 96.71 on September 16, 2021. (Note: Period refers to 2021-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of domestic mainstream potassium chloride manufacturers is temporarily stable this week: the arrival price of 60% potassium chloride in Qinghai Salt Lake is 3500-3600 yuan/ton. Xiangyang Youdeshi’s potassium chloride dealer quoted 3800 yuan/ton this weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with last weekend. Zibo Dehe’s potassium chloride dealer quoted 4000 yuan/ton this weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with last weekend. Anhui Badou’s potassium chloride dealer quoted 3850 yuan/ton this weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with last weekend. The self raised price of 62% white potassium at the port is about 3700-3800 yuan/ton. The self raised price of 60% Dahong granules at the port is about 3800-4000 yuan/ton. 62% of Russian white potassium in border trade is about 3600 yuan/ton.

From the perspective of the downstream market of potassium chloride, the factory price of potassium carbonate was adjusted at a low level this week, at 9225.00 yuan/ton, a year-on-year increase of 13.42%. This week, the factory price of potassium nitrate was adjusted at a low level, at 5875.00 yuan/ton, down 0.42% year on year. On the whole, the downstream market of potassium chloride was consolidated at a low level, and the downstream customers’ demand for potassium chloride was average.

3、 Future market forecast

In the middle and late December, the overall trend of potassium chloride market was dominated by narrow fluctuations. The price of potassium chloride in Salt Lake and Zangger was adjusted at a low level. The downstream market of potassium chloride was consolidated at a low level. The downstream demand was general, and the procurement was mainly just needed. International potash fertilizer prices rose slightly. Potassium chloride analysts from the business community believe that the domestic potassium chloride import price may rise slightly in the short term.

Since October, the domestic bisphenol A market has fallen sharply. As of December 12, the market negotiation was 10000-10100 yuan/ton, and the low point fell below 10000 yuan on December 8. The negotiation fell to 9850 yuan/ton, 40% lower than the market negotiation of 16475 yuan/ton on September 27. The downtrend is mainly due to the intensification of the contradiction between supply and demand. This wave of downtrend has made BPA enterprises enter into a loss state. Due to the deviation of upstream and downstream fluctuations in the industrial chain, the profits of major products in the BPA industrial chain have been redistributed.

New capacity was put into production in the fourth quarter, and the supply increased sharply

The supply of domestic bisphenol A has increased significantly since the fourth quarter, but the loss of domestic devices is significantly lower than the increase in production, except for the centralized maintenance of several devices in November. The domestic supply of bisphenol A has an obvious increasing trend. It is expected that the output in December will reach 260000 tons, compared with the previous monthly average output of 180000 to 200000 tons, the overall supply in the fourth quarter has increased significantly.

Due to the epidemic situation, downstream demands such as epoxy resin are difficult to release

Under the influence of the domestic multi spot epidemic in November again, the downstream demand and consumption decreased. Most products such as epoxy resin and PC used to digest the raw materials in stock, and the purchase intention weakened. With the decrease of terminal orders, downstream products such as epoxy resin fell synchronously.

Profit redistribution of bisphenol A industrial chain in the fourth quarter

It can be seen from the industrial chain diagram of bisphenol A that the decline of bisphenol A is much greater than that of raw materials phenol and acetone. In the fourth quarter, the profit space of bisphenol A gradually decreased. In December, with the sharp rebound of phenol/acetone market, the profit of bisphenol A industry entered a loss state. From the perspective of the two downstream areas, the decline of epoxy resin was equivalent to that of raw materials, while the decline of PC products was lower than that of raw materials bisphenol A due to the impact of their own supply and demand. However, in view of the impact of high price raw materials bisphenol A, PC was in a loss state. Since November, the downstream PC has turned into a profit, and the gross profit of the industry has increased.

From the perspective of cost, the raw material phenol/acetone continued to be strong in December. Bisphenol A had a downward trend on the 9th due to cost support. However, with the impact of import supply supplement and device restart, the contradiction between supply and demand was weakened. The phenol/acetone callback on the raw material side was expected to be large, and the support from the cost side was weakened. From the perspective of demand, it is still difficult to recover downstream demand before the year, and the supply of bisphenol A is expected to be 260000 tons in December. In addition, although supporting devices are put into production in the downstream, the increase is far less than the raw material end, and the short-term contradiction between supply and demand of bisphenol A is still prominent. It is expected that bisphenol A will rise in a narrow range in the short term or supported by costs. However, after adjustment, the market of bisphenol A will be consolidated and operated in the bottoming out period with the gradual release of new capacity and loose supply.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market fell one after another this week. The average price of the Shandong market at the beginning of the week was 7720 yuan/ton, and the average price at the weekend was 7434 yuan/ton. The weekly decline was 3.7%, up 2.62% from 30 days ago.

As of December 9, the mainstream prices of propylene in different regions in China are as follows:

Region. December 2

Shandong Province/7400-7500 yuan/ton

Northeast China/7100-7200 yuan/ton

East China/7300-7350 yuan/ton

2、 Analysis and review

According to the monitoring of the business community, propylene fell back after rising this week, and the price rose like a flash in the pan. The price fell rapidly due to the lack of real order support. At the beginning of the week, due to the price rising to a high level last week, downstream polypropylene and other products’ profits were tightened, the commencement of work was reduced, and procurement was restrained. In order to stabilize the delivery of propylene, the prices of propylene enterprises decreased successively. On the news side, the crude oil price continued to drop, further depressing the mentality of the industry. As of this Friday, Shandong’s mainstream quotation was 7400-7450 yuan/ton.

Upstream: On the cost side, the crude oil price continued to decline this week. As of the closing of December 9, the WTI fell 0.44 to 71.02 US dollars/barrel in January 2023, down 0.62%; In February 2023, Brent fell 0.05 to 76.10 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 0.07%. The price of crude oil hit a new low in the year, and the cost of propylene moved downward.

Downstream: The market of some products in the downstream mainly declined. In the past three months, the market showed a small rise and a sharp fall. The decline of some products exceeded 20%. In order to control profits and reduce negative operation, the demand for propylene was restrained.

3、 Future market forecast

According to propylene analysts from Chemical Branch of Business Cooperative, the economic recession is expected to remain unchanged. With the accumulation of upstream inventory, the enthusiasm for downstream procurement is not high. It is expected that propylene will still have room for decline next week.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, aniline fell broadly this month and rebounded narrowly near the end of the month. On November 1, the aniline market price was 14700 yuan/ton; On November 28, the price was 10438 yuan/ton. The average price of aniline in this month fell 29% from the beginning of the month and 5.97% from the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and review

As for raw materials, the pure benzene market was hit by many negative factors this month, and the price fell due to shocks. 1、 Crude oil fell broadly and the cost was negative. 2、 The Asian American arbitrage window was closed, and the domestic price of pure benzene in China was at a high level, so the import volume of pure benzene in November was at a high level. Moreover, the overall supply of pure benzene market is sufficient. 3、 Downstream profitability is poor, styrene continues to decline, and the market is generally interested in buying pure benzene, which is a drag on the demand side. At the beginning of the month, the price of pure benzene was 7384 yuan/ton; The price at the end of the month was 6759 yuan/ton, down 8.46% this month and up 1.64% compared with the same period last year.

Nitric acid: The price of nitric acid rose this month. The price of nitric acid in East China was 2367 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 2417 yuan/ton at the end of the month. The price was 2.11% higher than the beginning of the month and 7.64% lower than the same period last year.

In October, due to the centralized maintenance of aniline devices, the capacity loss was obvious, the market supply was tight, and the price continued to rise. In November, aniline reversed its trend and fell all the way. Since the beginning of this month, the early maintenance devices have returned, and the on-site spot supply has increased significantly; However, due to the increased resistance to high priced aniline in the downstream, the operating rate has decreased and the demand for aniline has decreased. In the context of increased supply and reduced demand, aniline factory inventory began to accumulate and prices fell broadly under pressure. Near the end of the month, the price of aniline fell to a low level, which led to the improvement of downstream purchasing sentiment. In addition, due to the limited transportation of northern factories, aniline rebounded slightly.

3、 Future market forecast

Raw materials, pure benzene: the fundamentals are hard to change in the short term. East China ports are expected to continue to accumulate stocks, with sufficient supply on the market. Pure benzene will continue its weak trend in the short term, and we will wait and see if the cost and demand can be improved.

Pure benzene is still likely to weaken in the short term, and aniline cost support is insufficient. In December, the maintenance of aniline device was less and the supply side was sufficient. The downstream MDI demand is temporarily stable, and the auxiliary industry has entered the off-season, with poor demand performance. On the whole, the aniline market continued to be weak in December, with a weak rebound. In the later period, we continued to pay attention to the trend of cost, changes in downstream demand and changes in the operating rate of aniline plants.