Price trend

Recently, the domestic ABS market is weak, and the spot price has been reduced in a narrow range. According to data monitoring by the Business News Agency, as of March 20, the average price of ABS sample products was 11825 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.07% compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Supply: The current high load situation in the ABS industry has slightly improved, but overall construction is still above 80%. There is abundant on-site spot supply. Last week, due to the entry of new materials into the market, competition intensified, and supply side pressure was on the high side. Domestic inventory has accumulated, and the factory price of petrochemical plants has declined under pressure.

In terms of raw materials: Recently, the overall performance of ABS upstream three materials is weak. The acrylonitrile market has declined slightly since March. The price of raw materials decreased, and the cost of acrylonitrile declined; The supply side of acrylonitrile has declined slightly due to the shutdown and maintenance of Koroor and the load reduction operation of SECCO. The acrylonitrile market is currently showing a slight deadlock.

Recently, the domestic butadiene market rose first and then fell. Last week, the external quotation of Sinopec Junior High School was raised, which once boosted the mentality of merchants. However, with the production of Dongming Petrochemical Unit and the restart of Zhejiang Petrochemical Unit 2, the market supply has increased significantly, while the main downstream Chuanhua cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber unit unexpectedly shut down, resulting in a significant contradiction between supply and demand, and the butadiene market has turned downward.

Last week, the styrene market in Shandong fluctuated and fell. Spot demand for styrene is poor, international oil prices continue to decline, and cost support is moderate. It is expected that short-term volatility in the styrene market will be dominated by lower prices.

Demand: Recently, downstream factories, including the main terminal appliance industry, have been generally proactive in stocking, and some manufacturers still have raw material inventory to digest. Overall demand improvement is limited, actual transaction volume is weak, and the smoothness of on-site delivery is poor.

Aftermarket Forecast

Recently, the overall trend of ABS upstream three materials has been weak, with poor support for ABS cost side. The high starting point of petrochemical plants has slightly decreased, and the market supply continues to be abundant. Demand side support is poor, merchants’ mentality is weak, and operations tend to yield profits and take orders. The process of reducing the negative load of petrochemical plants will take time, and it is expected that the ABS market will continue to digest the contradiction between supply and demand and operate weakly in the short term.

Price trend

Recent domestic PA66 market trends. According to data monitoring by Business News Agency, on March 17th, the average ex-factory price of domestic PA66 was 20500 yuan/ton, with a decrease of -2.38% compared to the price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

This week, the market for PA66 weakened, and spot prices remained stagnant after falling. In terms of supply, the overall monthly load of the domestic PA66 industry is currently around 65%, unchanged from last week. Enterprise operations continue to be biased towards destocking, with general inventory pressure and relatively abundant on-site supply. On the upstream side, the raw material hexamethylene diamine fluctuated in a narrow range, while on the adipic acid side, due to the weakness of pure benzene, the load was increased before, and the market was under pressure before finishing operation. PA66 raw material side has poor support for spot goods. In terms of demand, the situation is weak and difficult to change. Terminal enterprises just need to follow up on their purchases and maintenance. Buyers generally have strong resistance to high-priced sources of goods. It is expected that PA66 may continue its weak consolidation market in the short term.

Aftermarket Forecast

The spot price of PA66 fell this week. The raw material market is relatively soft, weakening the support for PA66 cost side. The load of PA66 enterprises remained stable, and the overall inventory position was average. Demand side delivery is weak, and it is expected that PA66 may continue to operate weakly in the short term.

Trade name: hydrochloric acid

Latest price (March 16th): 190.00 yuan/ton

On March 16th, the domestic market price of hydrochloric acid rose significantly, increasing by 14 yuan/ton or 7.95% compared to March 15th, and a year-on-year decrease of 44.32% compared to the same period last year. Recently, the market of upstream liquid chlorine has increased significantly, with increased cost support. The market of downstream polyaluminum chloride has declined slightly, and the market of ammonium chloride has consolidated at a high level. The willingness to purchase downstream is generally low.

Recently, the domestic market price of hydrochloric acid has fluctuated slightly, with an average market price of around 200 yuan/ton.

According to the monitoring data of the Business News Agency, the price of flake caustic soda was weak this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 3733.33 yuan/ton, and the average market price at the weekend was 3500 yuan/ton. The price fell 6.25%, down 15.32% year on year. This week, the market remained weak.

Upstream caustic soda

According to the survey data of the Business Agency, the domestic caustic soda price fell this week. The average market price in Shandong is about 800-870 yuan/ton. The ex-factory price of 32% of the mainstream liquid caustic soda in Hebei is about 850-1150 yuan/ton. The price of caustic soda in the site is weak. The overall supply of caustic soda is relatively sufficient, the downstream demand is less than expected, the intra-field trading atmosphere is weak, and there is lack of favorable factors to support, and the downstream is cautious.

The analysts of the Business Agency believe that the market for caustic soda is weak, the market trading atmosphere is general, the downstream demand is weak, and the wait-and-see mentality is dominant, and the enthusiasm for entering the market is general. The operators are cautious and the price center continues to decline. The supply of low-price goods in the market has increased without the support of favorable factors. In general, the short-term or weak operation of the price of caustic soda depends on the downstream market demand.

The domestic market price of phthalic anhydride rose. As of the 13th, the price of phthalic anhydride was 8637.5 yuan/ton, up 1.92% from the price of 8475 yuan/ton on the 6th, down 5.6% year on year.

Supply side: stable operation of the device and normal supply of goods

In the near future, the domestic phthalic anhydride plant has operated steadily, and the domestic phthalic anhydride plant has operated stably. At present, the domestic phthalic anhydride operating rate is about 60%, the supply of goods is normal, the delivery of phthalic anhydride has improved, and the market price of phthalic anhydride has risen.

Cost side: the price of orthobenzene market rises

The price trend of domestic ortho-phenyl rose. As of the 13th, the price of ortho-phenyl was 8500 yuan/ton, and the price trend of this week rose by 2.41%. The ortho-phenyl supply was normal, and the plant operation in the field was stable, but the port inventory declined. The rise of ortho-phenyl price brought some cost support to the phthalic anhydride market, and the market price trend of phthalic anhydride rose.

On the demand side: the trend of DOP market is volatile, and procurement is based on demand

The price trend of downstream DOP market fluctuated, with a slight decline of 0.6% this week. At present, the domestic DOP price is 9960 yuan/ton. Domestic DOP enterprises have started to operate steadily, and the demand for phthalic anhydride is mainly based on demand. The mainstream price of DOP is 9900-10000 yuan/ton. The demand of plasticizer industry is weak, and the price of phthalic anhydride is low due to the fluctuation of DOP price, but the overall price rises slightly due to the support of raw materials.

In the future, the price trend of ortho-xylene is mainly rising in the short term, but the market of downstream plasticizer industry is fluctuating, the supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, and the demand is general. It is expected that the market price trend of ortho-xylene phthalic anhydride will rise slightly in the later period.