The domestic market price of phthalic anhydride rose. As of the 13th, the price of phthalic anhydride was 8637.5 yuan/ton, up 1.92% from the price of 8475 yuan/ton on the 6th, down 5.6% year on year.

Supply side: stable operation of the device and normal supply of goods

In the near future, the domestic phthalic anhydride plant has operated steadily, and the domestic phthalic anhydride plant has operated stably. At present, the domestic phthalic anhydride operating rate is about 60%, the supply of goods is normal, the delivery of phthalic anhydride has improved, and the market price of phthalic anhydride has risen.

Cost side: the price of orthobenzene market rises

The price trend of domestic ortho-phenyl rose. As of the 13th, the price of ortho-phenyl was 8500 yuan/ton, and the price trend of this week rose by 2.41%. The ortho-phenyl supply was normal, and the plant operation in the field was stable, but the port inventory declined. The rise of ortho-phenyl price brought some cost support to the phthalic anhydride market, and the market price trend of phthalic anhydride rose.

On the demand side: the trend of DOP market is volatile, and procurement is based on demand

The price trend of downstream DOP market fluctuated, with a slight decline of 0.6% this week. At present, the domestic DOP price is 9960 yuan/ton. Domestic DOP enterprises have started to operate steadily, and the demand for phthalic anhydride is mainly based on demand. The mainstream price of DOP is 9900-10000 yuan/ton. The demand of plasticizer industry is weak, and the price of phthalic anhydride is low due to the fluctuation of DOP price, but the overall price rises slightly due to the support of raw materials.

In the future, the price trend of ortho-xylene is mainly rising in the short term, but the market of downstream plasticizer industry is fluctuating, the supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, and the demand is general. It is expected that the market price trend of ortho-xylene phthalic anhydride will rise slightly in the later period.

1、 Price trend

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price fell first and then rose this week. This week, the average price of domestic isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream market fell from 7300 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 7100.00 yuan/ton on March 8, down 2.74%. Then it rose to 7266.67 yuan/ton at the end of the week, up 2.35%. Overall, the price of isobutyraldehyde fell 0.46% this week. Compared with the same period last year, it fell 48.58% year-on-year. The isobutyraldehyde commodity index on March 12 was 36.89, which was the same as yesterday, down 65.06% from the cycle’s highest point of 105.58 (2021-09-16), and up 22.48% from the lowest point of 30.12 on October 7, 2022. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2021 to now)

2、 Market analysis

The quotations of mainstream isobutyraldehyde manufacturers rose and fell each other this week.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the propylene market in the upstream raw material market of isobutyraldehyde fell first and then rose this week. The price fell from 7516.60 yuan/ton on March 4 to 7334.60 yuan/ton on March 7, a decrease of 2.42%, and then rose to 7464.60 yuan/ton on March 10, an increase of 1.77%. On the whole, the propylene price fell by 0.69% this week. The year-on-year decline was 18.60%. The market price of upstream raw materials fell slightly, and the cost support was insufficient. Affected by the supply and demand side, the price of isobutyraldehyde was negatively affected. From the perspective of the downstream industry chain, the market price of neopentyl glycol fell slightly, from 11200.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 10866.67 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 2.98%. The market price of neopentyl glycol fell slightly, and the downstream demand weakened, which had a negative impact on isobutyraldehyde.

3、 Future prospects

The market trend of isobutyraldehyde in the middle and late March may be mainly volatile. The upstream propylene market fell slightly over the weekend, with insufficient cost support. The market of neopentyl glycol in the downstream has a downward trend, and the purchasing enthusiasm in the downstream is general. The isobutyraldehyde analyst of the Business Club believes that the short-term isobutyraldehyde market may suffer from small fluctuations and falls under the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other factors.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of the business agency, the domestic PC market fell this week, and the spot prices of various brands were generally reduced. As of March 10, the reference offer of the sample PC enterprises of the Business Club was about 16333.33 yuan/ton, up – 0.81% from the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials: it can be seen from the above figure that the recent bisphenol A market is weak, phenol and acetone at the raw material end are strong, and the cost of downstream bisphenol A plants is increased. However, the downstream epoxy resin and other products continued to be sluggish, with insufficient orders, and the demand side was negative for the market. In addition, the supply of bisphenol A is sufficient, resulting in an increase in the contradiction between supply and demand. It is expected that bisphenol A will be weak in the short term.

On the supply side, the overall operating rate of domestic PC fell to about 69% this week, which was lower than that in the previous period but still at a high level year-on-year,. In addition, there has been a new capacity to release the negative market, and there will be a resumption of production line next week. On the whole, the supply side has insufficient support for the spot.

Demand: Recently, the downstream of PC just needs to maintain production, and the operators have a heavy wait-and-see attitude. At present, the starting position of the terminal enterprises is not high, and there is a certain stock of raw materials that needs to be digested, and the on-site delivery is weak. The traders’ mentality is weak, and the operation is biased to yield profits and take orders.

Aftermarket forecast

The PC market fell this week, and the upstream bisphenol A market weakened, weakening the support for PC costs. The load of domestic polymerization plants was reduced in a narrow range, but it was still at a high level. At the same time, the demand side failed to follow up, and the pressure on the supply side increased sharply. It is expected that the PC market will continue to weaken due to the supply and demand contradiction in the near future.

According to the monitoring data of the Business Agency, since March, the demand of terminal printing and paper industry has been supported by rigid demand, and the market of hydrogen peroxide has risen. On March 1, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 750 yuan/ton. On March 7, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 796 yuan/ton, up 6.22%.

The market of hydrogen peroxide rose as terminal demand increased

Since March, the demand of the terminal paper printing industry has increased, the quantity of hydrogen peroxide purchased is acceptable, the transaction of hydrogen peroxide market has improved, and hydrogen peroxide manufacturers have continuously raised the factory price of hydrogen peroxide, and the overall market has risen. The mainstream price of hydrogen peroxide in Shandong is 750 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of hydrogen peroxide in Anhui is 850 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of hydrogen peroxide in Hangzhou is 1150 yuan/ton; The overall price rose by 50 yuan/ton.

Li Bing, an agricultural product analyst at the Business Society, believes that the demand of terminal printing and paper industry is supported, and the future market of hydrogen peroxide is expected to rise.

The spot tin market price (2.24-3.3) fell this week. The average price of the domestic market was 211410 yuan/ton at the end of last week, 198910 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 5.91%.

The commodity price K-bar chart uses the concept of price trend K-line to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates: rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. From the above figure, we can see that tin prices are mainly affected by macro factors after November 2022. Since February, the price has dropped.

In the futures market, the US dollar index rose sharply at the beginning of the week, and the metal market was generally under pressure. The US dollar index fluctuated in the middle of the week, and the market rose slightly. However, due to the negative economic data, the expectation of interest rate increase was strengthened, and the US dollar index strengthened again. At the end of the week, the London tin price fell again, and the overall trend of the week was weak.

The trend of the spot market this week is basically consistent with that of the Shanghai Tin Exchange, and the overall price decline is obvious. As the price fell below 200000 yuan this week, the smelter’s overall willingness to ship was low, and the attitude of price support was strong. The market’s intra-week trading was also slightly cold, and there was no willingness to receive goods accompanied by lower prices. On the supply side, the smelter has resumed its normal operation and the supply is relatively stable. In terms of demand, the downstream still has the intention of purchasing in demand after the holiday, and the market has some bargain-hunting and replenishment. The highlight of downstream demand in the near future is photovoltaic. With the increasingly obvious signs of market recovery, market participants are generally optimistic about the future. However, the current tin inventory is still on the high side, dragging down the tin price. The tin price is greatly affected by the macro economy. In the future, the tin market is expected to remain stable and weak. It is necessary to focus on the recovery of downstream demand and the impact of macro policies on the market mentality.

The base metal index stood at 1231 points on March 4, which was the same as yesterday, down 23.82% from the highest point of 1616 points in the cycle (2022-03-09), and up 91.74% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24, 2015. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

According to the price monitoring of the Business News Agency, there were 6 commodities in the non-ferrous sector in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 9th week of 2023 (2.27-3.3), with cobalt (1.57%), aluminum (1.29%) and copper (1.29%) among the top three commodities. There are 14 commodities with a month-on-month decline and 6 commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 26.1% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The top three products falling were dysprosium ferroalloy (- 8.99%), dysprosium oxide (- 8.29%) and praseodymium neodymium oxide (- 6.57%). This week’s average rise and fall was – 2.2%.