At the beginning of November, the domestic EVA market trend continued to be weak, and the price fell. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average ex factory price of domestic EVA was 19066.67 yuan/ton on October 30, and 18733.33 yuan/ton on November 5. The range of increase and decrease within the week was – 1.75%, and – 17.35% compared with the same period last year.

At the beginning of November, the domestic EVA market undertook the early weak market. At present, there is almost no good support on the market. On the supply side, the ex factory price of petrochemical enterprises has fallen, and the total domestic inventory position has risen; In terms of demand, there is no obvious change in the demand for photovoltaic materials. The demand for foaming materials is poor. The downstream multi-dimensional companies need to purchase rigid materials. The market trading atmosphere is light. In the early stage, the supply of goods for auction fell sharply, which brought obvious pressure to the market, and affected the current merchants’ pessimism. At present, the offer on the market is chaotic, and there are many recessions in the detailed discussion of actual orders, and the price follows the weakening.

To sum up, the current market is affected by multiple bad news. The ex factory price of petrochemical enterprises is falling, the follow-up of terminal demand is insufficient, the downstream is cautious, the follow-up of just needed replenishment is lagging behind, and the market trading atmosphere is cold. It is expected that the domestic EVA market will remain weak in the short term, and the price is still likely to decline.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the average market price of soda ash will be about 2650 yuan/ton on November 2, 2022, and the price will remain relatively stable from September 2022. However, compared with the same period in 2021, the price of 3687.5 yuan/ton fell by 28.14%.

It can be seen from the annual comparison chart of soda ash that the price of soda ash in 2021 will be at a high level in the fourth quarter, of which the highest price will be about 3687.5 yuan/ton on November 6, 2021, which will run at a high level.

From the monthly K column chart of soda ash, it can be seen that in 2021, soda ash will rise in many years, with an increase of 34.05% in September. In 2022, the largest increase in soda ash will be 20% in February. Since March, the amplitude of soda ash has generally narrowed, mainly due to the weak supply and demand pattern.

In terms of supply, the supply of soda ash is loose. Some data show that the inventory of 1.8 million tons at the beginning of 2022. Although the total inventory of soda ash enterprises is 317000 tons, which has been kept low from the second half of the year, the soda ash industry will have about 1.2 million tons of new capacity from the end of this year to the first quarter of next year. Under the pattern of loose supply and demand, the price focus of soda ash will gradually move down.

From the perspective of demand, the terminal impact of the real estate is still relatively low, and there is no warming phenomenon. The demand for downstream float glass is general. It can be seen from the above figure that the price of glass will go down all the way in 2022. The average market price at the beginning of the year is 24.87 yuan/ton, and the average market price at the beginning of November is 19.73 yuan/ton, down 20.67%. The price of glass remained low and did not improve significantly.

According to the analysts of the business community, the overall starting level of soda ash supply is about 90%, the supply is relatively stable, and the operation of downstream float glass manufacturers has not improved significantly. The domestic real estate market is weak, the price of float glass has fallen for several consecutive months, and most of them are purchased on demand, with a strong wait-and-see attitude. It is estimated that the price of soda ash will still be adjusted slightly, depending on the downstream market demand.

According to the data of the bulk commodity list of the business community, the formaldehyde market in Shandong Province was consolidated this week. The average price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province was 1383.33 yuan/ton. The current price rose by 3.49% month on month, and the current price fell by 17.00% year on year.

formaldehyde

The price of formaldehyde market in Shandong Province was stable this week. It can be seen from the figure above that the formaldehyde market in the past two months has been dominated by a small upward trend, and the fluctuation of the market this week is not large. As of November 2, the mainstream market price in Shandong was 1350-1400 yuan/ton. Recently, the methanol market has been consolidated at a low level, with general cost support. The demand of downstream sheet mills is not good, and the purchase of just needed materials has been maintained. Influenced by the public security incident, few transactions have been made in the formaldehyde market, and the manufacturers’ shipments have stalled. The market is basically stable.

Upstream methanol: The domestic methanol market has been weak and consolidated recently. Local transportation is limited, and some enterprises have increased their inventories, which further aggravates the wait-and-see mood of traders. The supply side is abundant, the demand side has not improved, and the methanol market is difficult to improve.

Recently, the domestic methanol market has fluctuated at a low level, and the cost support is not good. The procurement of the downstream wood panel factory remains in demand. Therefore, the formaldehyde analysts of the Chemical Branch of the Business Cooperative predict that the recent price of formaldehyde in Shandong will mainly fall due to the volatility.

According to the monitoring of the bulk data of the business community, the acetic acid market rose first and then fell in October. The average price of acetic acid at the beginning of the month was 3312.20 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of the month was 3442.50 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 3.92% and a year-on-year decrease of 49.00%.

As of the end of the month, the details of acetic acid market prices in various regions in China in October are as follows:

Region, October 8, October 17, October 31

South China, 3350 yuan/ton, 3450 yuan/ton, 3400 yuan/ton

In North China, 3600 yuan/ton, 3700 yuan/ton, 3300 yuan/ton

Shandong, 3550 yuan/ton, 3650 yuan/ton, 3250 yuan/ton

Jiangsu Province, 3300 yuan/ton, 3300 yuan/ton, 3150 yuan/ton

Zhejiang Province, 3400 yuan/ton, 3400 yuan/ton, 3250 yuan/ton

In October, the acetic acid market rose first and then fell. At the beginning of the month, the methanol market on the raw material side rose, and the cost support was good. The downstream demand for replenishment after the festival was good. In addition, the utilization rate of acetic acid capacity in the field was low, the manufacturer’s shipment was smooth, the enterprise was optimistic, and the quotation continued to rise. Later, with the weakening of the downstream replenishment intention and the resumption of the acetic acid manufacturer Lu Xuhui in the market, the oversupply became more and more obvious. The dominant power turned to the buyer’s market, and the focus of the discussion among the holders shifted downward, Superimposed by the weakness of raw material methanol, the cost support is insufficient, the market mentality is bearish, and the price of acetic acid continues to decline. At the end of the month, Shandong enterprises shut down their acetic acid plants, slowing down the inventory pressure, and the acetic acid market stopped falling and stabilized.

The methanol market at the feedstock end rose broadly and then fell sharply. As of 31, the average price in the domestic market was 2790.00 yuan/ton, a 7.39% drop compared with 3012.50 yuan/ton on October 1. The price of methanol raw material natural gas fell, the methanol cost support weakened, while the downstream inventory was sufficient, purchasing was limited, and the market negotiation atmosphere was weak. In addition, due to the impact of public health, local transportation was blocked, and some enterprises increased their inventory. Traders intended to stock at this price, and methanol prices continued to decline.

The downstream ethyl acetate market rose first and then fell in October. The quotation at the end of the month was 6966.67 yuan/ton, down 0.52% from the beginning of the month. The raw material acetic acid market rose first and then fell. The market trading and investment were mainly weak. The cost of ethyl acetate was not supported enough. The downstream demand continued to be weak. Enterprises were not enthusiastic about getting goods. It was necessary to keep up with the demand. There was sufficient supply of ethyl acetate in the market, manufacturers reduced prices and discharged stocks. The market of ethyl acetate was weak.

According to the analysts of the business community, the acetic acid market is stable at present. Although some manufacturers have stopped their equipment at the supply end, the market supply is still high, while the downstream market entry continues to be weak, and the demand is not good enough. In the short term, the acetic acid market is temporarily stable. In addition, the market heard that Henan Shunda acetic acid plant has a parking plan. It is expected that the acetic acid market will fluctuate slightly in the future, and the specific market supply and demand will change.

441 # silicon price trend

The market price of metal silicon was stable in October. As of the 31st, the quotation of metal silicon nationwide was 21580 yuan/ton, up 1.51% from the beginning of the month. At the beginning of the month, the metal silicon market rose steadily. On the 12th, the market transaction warmed up, and the dry season was approaching. Silicon plants were reluctant to sell at a high price; Since the middle of the year, the metal silicon has maintained stability at a high level, and there are few inquiries from the downstream, resulting in deadlock between the upstream and downstream; At the end of the month, silicon prices fell steadily, downstream demand was weak, and low price supply gradually emerged.

Market analysis

Supply side

There is still a risk of supply disruption. Repeated outbreaks in Xinjiang and some regions have hindered transportation, resulting in slow production increase in some silicon plants. Southwest China entered a normal water period on the 26th, and the electricity price increased by 0.08-0.1 yuan/kWh. Yunnan Province increased on November 1st, and the cost of metal silicon smelting rose.

It is understood that as of October 30, the metal silicon furnace opening rate was 54.84%, including 120 in Xinjiang, 72 in Sichuan and 85 in Yunnan.

Inventory

As of October 28, the total inventory of metal silicon in the three places was 121000 tons, and the overall social inventory increased by 1000 tons compared with the end of last month, with a year-on-year increase of 98.4%. Huangpu Port has a large number of shipments and a small decrease in inventory. Due to public health incidents in many places in the north, transactions in Tianjin Port are relatively flat, and warehouse imports and exports are relatively stable.

Demand side

In October, polysilicon was stable. The three downstream products of metal silicon, only the demand for polysilicon remained prosperous, and new capacity continued to be put into production. The expectation of a large release of silicon materials was relatively strong. In the future, polysilicon may face excess.

The average quoted price of silicone DMC market in mainstream regions in China is 17840 yuan/ton. The downstream consumption of silicone is sluggish, the profit space is compressed, many manufacturers stop production, and the demand for metal silicon is weak.

The market price of aluminum alloy is 18700 yuan/ton, the operating rate of regeneration is 51.6%, the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy is 64%, and the operating rate is the same month on month. Small enterprises have reduced production, and the overall demand is poor.

Future market forecast

The southwest wet season at the supply end ended, and the production cost increased. The epidemic situation in Xinjiang affected the production reduction of enterprises, supporting the price of metal silicon to a certain extent. However, at the downstream consumer end, only the demand for polysilicon remained optimistic, while the consumption of aluminum alloy and organic silicon was stagnant. Due to the downstream demand, the price of metal silicon had limited room to rise. It is expected that the silicon price will operate weakly and stably in the short term.