On January 11, the quotation range of 1 # lead ingot in the domestic spot lead market was about 15250-15400 yuan/ton, with an average price of 15325 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan/ton from the previous trading day.

Recently, the lead price has declined as a whole. Although the price has declined, the market trading is still weak near the Spring Festival, and there is no demand for bargain-hunting and replenishment in the market. Basically, lead has not changed much and remains in the off-season market. On the supply side, all primary lead enterprises have resumed production and stopped production, and the overall operating rate has increased slightly. In terms of downstream demand, after the weather turned cold, battery manufacturers entered the seasonal off-season, the domestic market was approaching the Spring Festival holiday, and the pre-holiday reserve warehouse was almost at an end. Battery enterprises began to enter the holiday, with a significant decline in the operating rate and a decline in the demand for lead ingots. Recently, the market price has continued to decline, the domestic inventory is in the accumulation stage, and the market transaction is cold. In general, the lead ingot market has entered a seasonal off-season, with weak supply and demand in the lead market. The short-term trend continues to follow the macro factors, and there is still some room for decline in the long term.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of the business agency, the price of aniline has stabilized this week. The price was 9600 yuan/ton on January 3 and 9600 yuan/ton on January 6.

2、 Analysis and comment

In terms of cost, pure benzene: the basic level of pure benzene continues to be weak, the downstream is more wait-and-see, and the purchase intention is general; Crude oil continued to fall in the week, and the cost of pure benzene market formed a negative pressure; Downstream styrene slightly strengthened, boosting the pure benzene market. At the beginning of the week, the inventory of pure benzene in the East China port decreased slightly, and the supply pressure eased. On Friday (January 6), the price of pure benzene was 6650 yuan/ton, down 0.31% from last week and up 1.46% from the same period last year.

Nitric acid: The price of domestic nitric acid was stable this week. The price was 2433 yuan/ton on January 3 and 2433 yuan/ton on January 6. The price remained unchanged last week, up 2.82% from the same period last year.

Due to the tight spot supply of aniline in the northern region, the market was bullish, and the price rose continuously in the first half of the week. However, the downstream of the terminal is in the traditional off-season, and the demand for aniline is difficult to be significantly improved. With the favorable supply turning weak, aniline stabilizes and the wait-and-see increases.

3、 Aftermarket expectation

At present, the supply and demand of aniline market is temporarily stable, and there is no more good news in the market. It is expected that aniline will stabilize in the short term. Continue to pay attention to the trend of raw materials, the dynamics of aniline plants and the downstream pickup sentiment.

1、 Price trend

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic market price of neopentyl glycol is temporarily stable this week. This week, the average price of neopentyl glycol in the mainstream market in China was 9133.33 yuan/ton. Compared with the same period last year, it fell 38.7% year-on-year. The neopentyl glycol commodity index on January 8 was 44.02, which was the same as yesterday, down 57.51% from the cycle’s highest point of 103.61 (2021-09-22), and up 2.25% from the lowest point of 43.05 on November 28, 2022. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2021 to now)

2、 Market analysis

The price of the mainstream manufacturers of neopentyl glycol is temporarily stable this week: the distribution price of neopentyl glycol at the weekend of Jinan Aochen Wanhua is 9000 yuan/ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the weekend of last week; The distribution price of Zibo De Synthetic Fengxin Pentylenediol at the weekend was 9200 yuan/ton, which was temporarily stable compared with that at the end of last week. The distribution price of Shandong Kemico Neopentyl Glycol at the weekend is 9200 yuan/ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the end of last week.

From the perspective of the upstream raw material market of neopentyl glycol, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price rose slightly this week. The average price of domestic isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream market rose from 6466.67 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 6733.33 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up 4.12%. The market price of upstream raw materials rose slightly, and the cost support increased. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a positive impact on the price of neopentyl glycol.

3、 Future prospects

In the middle and late January, the market trend of neopentyl glycol may fluctuate slightly. The upstream isobutyraldehyde market rose slightly, the cost support increased, the downstream paint market was general, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm weakened. The neopentyl glycol analyst of the business agency believes that the short-term neopentyl glycol market is mainly affected by the supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects, and the market price may fluctuate slightly.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of coking coal fell this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 2551.67 yuan/ton, and at the weekend it was 2491.67 yuan/ton, down 2.35% and 1.06% compared with the same period last year. On January 6, the energy index was 1083 points, down 1 point from yesterday, down 30.62% from the peak of 1561 points (2021-10-21) in the cycle, and up 111.94% from the lowest point of 511 points on March 1, 2016. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present)

In terms of origin, due to the approaching of the annual customs and the impact of safety inspection, the supply of coking coal has decreased, and most coal mine quotations have been temporarily stable, but a small part of them have been lowered, so the market trading atmosphere is general. In terms of downstream coke market, the first round of increase and decrease of coke market was implemented during New Year’s Day, with the current round of decrease of 100-110 yuan/ton. At present, the mood of coking market is weak, and it is difficult to have a good expectation. Although there is a demand for winter storage, the current stock is basically nearing the end. The festival atmosphere is getting stronger, but the transactions on the floor are relatively light.

From the perspective of coking coal analysts of the business community, the delivery and investment atmosphere of coking coal is general, some coal mines have lowered their quotations, and the demand for coking coal in the downstream coke sector is general in the near future. The Spring Festival is approaching, and the stock preparation is nearing the end. The purchase of coking coal is mainly based on demand. From a comprehensive perspective, the weak operation of coking coal prices is dominant, and the downstream market demand is specific.

In 2022, the market of Shandong isooctanol fluctuate and fall. The average price of isooctanol mainstream market in Shandong at the beginning of the year was 10133.33 yuan/ton, and the average price of isooctanol mainstream at the end of the year was 9733.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.95% in the year. The lowest price of the whole year was 8066.67 yuan/ton in the middle of July, and the highest price was 14533.33 yuan/ton in the first ten days of February, with a maximum drop of 44.50% in the year.

From the monthly K column chart of isooctanol, the market of isooctanol in 2022 will fluctuate, with more gains and less losses. The highest increase was 19.08% in January and the highest decrease was 26.81% in June. On January 3, the isooctanol commodity index was 70.10, down 1.47 points from yesterday, down 49.02% from the cycle’s highest point of 137.50 (2021-08-08), and up 99.43% from the lowest point of 35.15 on February 1, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Review of isooctanol market in 2022

Phase I: From early January to early February, the market of isooctanol rose sharply. Upstream propylene prices rose sharply, with strong cost support. The price rose from 7548.60 yuan/ton in early January to 8340.60 yuan/ton in early February, an increase of 10.49%. Downstream DOP market rose sharply, and downstream demand was good. The DOP price rose from 9775.00 yuan/ton in early January to 13400.00 yuan/ton in early February, up 37.08%. The downstream DBP rose 34.06% and the downstream DOTP rose 38.63%. The upstream and downstream made joint efforts, and the price of isooctanol rose significantly. The price rose from 10133.33 yuan/ton in early January to 14533.33 yuan/ton in early February, an increase of 43.42%.

The second stage: from early February to the end of May, the market of isooctanol fluctuated widely. The upstream propylene price fluctuated slightly, with average cost support. The price dropped from 8340.60 yuan/ton in the first ten days of February to 8070.60 yuan/ton at the end of May, a decrease of 3.24%. Downstream DOP market fell in shock, and downstream demand weakened. The DOP price fell from 13400.00 yuan/ton in the first ten days of February to 11912.50 yuan/ton at the end of May, a decline of 11.1%. Downstream DBP fell 16.22% and downstream DOTP fell 10.52%. The upstream support was general, while the downstream demand weakened, and the price of isooctanol fell in shock. The price dropped from 14533.33 yuan/ton in the first ten days of February to 12466.67 yuan/ton at the end of May, a decline of 14.22%.

The third stage: from the beginning of June to the end of July, isooctanol market fell precipitously. The upstream propylene price fell sharply, and the cost support was insufficient. The price dropped from 8080.60 yuan/ton at the beginning of June to 7318.60 yuan/ton at the end of July, a decline of 9.43%. Downstream DOP market fell sharply, and downstream demand was seriously insufficient. The DOP price fell from 11912.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of June to 8887.50 yuan/ton at the end of July, a decline of 25.39%. Downstream DBP fell 14.24% and downstream DOTP fell 25.77%. The upstream support is insufficient, the downstream demand continues to decline, multiple negative, and the price of isooctanol drops sharply. The price dropped from 12466.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of June to 8100.00 yuan/ton at the end of July, a decrease of 35.03%.

The fourth stage: from the beginning of August to the end of December, the market of isooctanol fluctuated upward. The upstream propylene price fell in a narrow range, with average cost support. The price dropped from 7348.60 yuan/ton at the beginning of August to 7244.60 yuan/ton at the end of December, down 1.42%. Downstream DOP market fluctuated and rose, and downstream demand was good. The DOP price rose from 8925.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of August to 9750.00 yuan/ton at the end of December, an increase of 9.24%. The downstream DBP rose 9.54% and the downstream DOTP rose 9.19%. The upstream support is general, the downstream demand increases, and the price of isooctanol rises significantly. The price rose from 8100.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of August to 9733.33 yuan/ton at the end of December, an increase of 20.16%.

Future outlook: In the first ten days of January, the market of isooctanol may rise in a small amplitude. After New Year’s Day, the upstream propylene market was consolidated at a high level, with good cost support. Downstream plasticizer market rose and demand increased. On the whole, the recent market of isooctanol may rise slightly.