1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of caustic soda fell in October as a whole. At the beginning of the month, the average price in the Shandong market was 1238 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average price in the Shandong market was about 1140 yuan/ton. The price fell 7.92%, and the price rose 33.04% compared with the same period last year. On October 27, the caustic soda commodity index was 168.92, down 4.61 points from yesterday, 36.37% from the highest point of the cycle 265.47 (2021-10-27), and 159.44% from the lowest point 65.11 on October 9, 2020. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the survey data of the business community, the domestic caustic soda price is now down. At present, the average market price in Shandong is about 1100-1200 yuan/ton. The factory quotation of 32% liquid caustic soda mainstream in Hebei is about 1170-1300 yuan/ton.

The price of caustic soda rose first and then fell this month, mainly due to the strong rise of 32% of liquid caustic soda in Shandong due to the impact of major enterprise maintenance. This is mainly because the enterprise has equipment maintenance, which is good for the market, and the demand of downstream enterprises is good. Moreover, the export of caustic soda is good, and the price of caustic soda continues to rise. The decline in caustic soda price in the late period was mainly due to the decline in the price of caustic soda on the market and the slow shipment compared with the early period. Most of the main caustic soda enterprises have stable production and sufficient supply of goods on the site, but the downstream market is mainly wait-and-see, and the shipment is more ordinary than in the early stage..

According to the price monitoring of the business community, there are 1 rising commodity, 2 falling commodities and 2 zero rising and falling commodities in the price list of chlor alkali industry in the 42nd week of 2022 (10.17-10.21). The main commodities that rose were hydrochloric acid (1.88%); The main commodities falling were caustic soda (-2.37%) and PVC (-0.69%). The average rise and fall this week was -0.23%.

The analysts of the business community believe that in the near future, the price of caustic soda will decline at the end of this month, the market supply is relatively sufficient, and the shipment situation is slower than in the early stage. The downstream will mostly purchase according to demand, mainly in a wait-and-see mood. It is expected that the caustic soda will mainly operate in the follow-up or weak market, depending on the downstream market demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of bulk commodity data, the price of Yunnan Guizhou yellow phosphorus market rose this month. The average price of yellow phosphorus at the beginning of the month was 36375 yuan/ton, and the average price at the end of the month was 37250 yuan/ton. The price rose within the month by 2.41%.

2、 Market analysis

The yellow phosphorus market price rose first and then fell this month. At present, the market trading and investment situation is average. Overall, it rose slightly. After the National Day holiday, yellow phosphorus moved upward, and after a small rise, the market weakened. Downstream picking up slowed down, inquiries increased, actual transaction was cautious, and yellow phosphorus market price fell back. In the second half of the month, the price of yellow phosphorus was relatively stable, and the manufacturers had a strong desire to support the price. Most manufacturers’ quotations were firm or suspended, and the actual transaction price in the market declined. Up to now, the manufacturer’s quotation is 37000 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is mainly negotiated on a single basis.

In terms of phosphate rock, the domestic phosphate rock market generally fell slightly. After the National Day holiday, the trading atmosphere in the phosphate rock yard was quiet, and the weak market situation of the terminal phosphate fertilizer market gave ordinary support to the phosphate rock. Most of the support in the phosphate rock yard came from the continuous tension of the supply side, and the offer of the operators was multi-dimensional and stable. Some mining enterprises in Sichuan reduced the price of the phosphate rock market slightly, with a reduction rate of about 10 yuan/ton. According to the phosphorus ore data engineer of the business community, in the short term, the domestic phosphorus ore market will mainly operate stably, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the specific information changes on the supply and demand side.

In terms of coke, the coke market experienced a round of increase in October 2022. As of the press release, the price of quasi primary metallurgical coke in Shanxi was 2600 yuan/ton, and the price at the beginning of the month was 2500 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 4%. The overall price of coke market rose slightly in October, but the market mentality was first strong and then weak. After the small and long holidays, affected by multiple factors, the coke enterprises have significantly limited production, and the automobile transportation has been affected to some extent. The overall supply of coke is tight, and the sales of finished products in the downstream have slightly improved. Under the influence of the double advantages, the first round of coke rose and landed. After landing, the coke market price tends to be stable. During this period, coke steel has a strong game mentality, but the price remains temporarily stable. In general, the heating season is approaching, the production restriction season of coking enterprises is coming, and the coke supply is expected to be further tightened. In the future, the focus will be on the profit of downstream steel plants, coke inventory in all links, and the impact of environmental protection policies issued by various regions near the heating season on the coke market.

In terms of demand, the price of phosphoric acid rose first and then fell in October. On October 1, the average price of phosphoric acid was 10160 yuan/ton, and on October 27, the average price was 9840 yuan/ton. The price fell within the month by 3.15%. The price of phosphoric acid rose first and then fell, with the overall market price mainly falling. At present, there is no good news on the market, cost support is weakened, manufacturers and dealers operate cautiously, and the industry is in a strong wait-and-see mood. It is expected that the market price of phosphoric acid will move downward in a narrow range in the short term.

3、 Future market forecast

Yellow phosphorus analysts from the Chemical Branch of the Business Cooperative believe that yellow phosphorus prices will rise first and then fall this month. The overall market price of downstream phosphoric acid fell, and the demand was relatively light. However, this month coincided with the end of the preferential electricity price policy in the wet season, and the coke price rose slightly. With the increase of costs in the next month, yellow phosphorus manufacturers are willing to support the price. It is expected that the yellow phosphorus market will remain deadlocked in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the business community, as of October 26, the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber in China was 12190 yuan/ton, down 0.08% from the previous day; On the 26th, the ex factory price of butadiene rubber suppliers was stable; The price of raw butadiene was temporarily stable, and the offer of some merchants was slightly reduced by 50 yuan/ton. The mainstream of domestic butadiene rubber market such as Qilu, Daqing and Yanshan reported 11900~12350 yuan/ton; Private Shunding reported 11500~11900 yuan/ton.

Enterprise, product, ex factory price (yuan/ton)

Sinopec North China, Qilu Shunding BR9000., 11900

Sinopec East China, Yangzi BR 9000, 11900

Sinopec East China, Yanshan BR 9000, 12050

Sinopec South China, Yanshan BR 9000, 12100

Sinopec South China, Maoming BR 9000, 11900

PetroChina Northeast, Jinzhou/Daqing Shun Butadiene Rubber BR9000., 12000

PetroChina North China, Daqing/Dushanzi/Sichuan Shunbutadiene Rubber BR9000., 12000

PetroChina East China, Daqing/Dushanzi/Sichuan Shunbutadiene Rubber BR9000., 12100

Future market forecast: on the one hand, the price of raw material butadiene is lower, and the cost support of cis polybutadiene rubber is weaker; On the other hand, the downstream demand is sluggish, and the cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber market is expected to continue to be weak in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the average price of polyformaldehyde production in Shandong on October 24 was 5433 yuan/ton, which was the same as last week.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the domestic methanol market price rose 5.03% from October 17 to October 24. The support for raw material methanol is insufficient, and polyformaldehyde analysts from the business community expect the price of polyformaldehyde to run smoothly.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, the average price of domestic liquid caprolactam market on October 17 was 12366 yuan/ton, and the average price of domestic liquid caprolactam market on October 24 was 12266 yuan/ton. The domestic caprolactam price fell 0.81% this week.

2、 Market analysis

The caprolactam market fell slightly this week and then consolidated. The price of raw material pure benzene fell, the cost end support of caprolactam weakened, the market supply was tight, and downstream procurement was based on demand, mainly on wait-and-see. The operating rate of downstream polymerization plants increased, and the demand for caprolactam was stable. As of October 24, the price of Sinopec caprolactam liquid was 13100 yuan/ton, which was withdrawn by acceptance. The price of caprolactam liquid of Baling Petrochemical is 13100 yuan/ton, and the acceptance is self extracting.

Raw material pure benzene market, the price of pure benzene has weakened this week. Due to the fact that the downstream demand is multi-dimensional and needs to be followed up, the enterprises in Shandong are under pressure to ship goods, and they are willing to arrange the warehouse. The focus of the negotiation is weak, and the price of pure benzene continues to decline in the week. At the beginning of this week, the arrival of pure benzene at East China Port was slightly delayed, and the inventory dropped to 45200 tons. This week, the price of Sinopec pure benzene was lowered by 150 yuan/ton to 7850 yuan/ton (the price in Hebei and Shandong was lowered to 7900 yuan/ton).

3、 Future market forecast

Caprolactam analysts from the business community believe that the price of raw material pure benzene tends to be stable after the recent downturn, and the decline slows down. The caprolactam market should be cautious, focusing on consolidation and operation. It is expected that the short-term caprolactam market will be dominated by stable consolidation and operation.