According to the monitoring of bulk data by the business community, the mainstream price of styrene in Shandong fell first and then rose in September. At the beginning of the month, the price of the sample enterprises of the business cooperatives was 8666.67 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the price of the sample enterprises was 9300.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.72%. The price rose 1.20% year on year.

styrene

In September, the styrene market price rose first and then fell. It can be seen from the figure above that the price of styrene rose in the first three weeks and fell in the last week in the last month. The lowest price of styrene in September was at the beginning of the month, which was 8666.67 yuan/ton. The highest price was 9776.00 yuan/ton on September 14, with a maximum increase of 9.03%. The spot price of styrene continued to rise in the first half of the year. The rise was mainly due to the obvious increase in the downstream operating rate, the improvement in demand compared with the previous period, the decline in port inventory, the smooth removal of styrene from the warehouse, and the rise in the spot market. The downward trend of the styrene market began to decline, mainly because the focus of the pure benzene market continued to move downward, the ethylene market was shaken and consolidated, and the support for the styrene market was limited. The domestic styrene plants returned one after another, the styrene inventory rose, and the rise was weak. It is expected that the price of styrene spot goods will fluctuate and decline in the later period.

In terms of raw materials, crude oil fell sharply this month, and cost support weakened again. Pure benzene rose sharply this month. The price at the beginning of the month is 7600-7700 yuan/ton (the average price is 7617 yuan/ton); The price at the end of the month was 7850-8100 yuan/ton (the average price was 7901 yuan/ton), up 3.72% this month and 1.55% compared with the same period last year. On the demand side, the prices of most downstream products of pure benzene rose this month, and the profitability improved. Downstream shutdown devices were restarted successively in the early stage, and the demand for pure benzene was repaired. The improvement of the demand side drove the pure benzene higher. In terms of ports, the inventory of pure benzene in East China ports rose to 64600 tons at the beginning of the month, but due to the impact of typhoon weather, the import cargo ships were delayed, and the inventory at the end of the month again fell to a low level.

In terms of downstream, the three major downstream styrene markets rose and fell in September. At the beginning of this month, the average price of PS common materials was 10550 yuan/ton, and at the end of this month, the average price of PS common materials was 10466 yuan/ton, down 0.79% and 4.85% year on year. It is expected that the short-term domestic PS (polystyrene) market will fluctuate in a narrow range. The mainstream price of GPPS (polyphenylene sulfide) in the East China market will be 9800-11500 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of HIPS (polystyrene) will be 10400-11700 yuan/ton.

The EPS market rose in September, and the average price of EPS ordinary materials was 11300 yuan/ton. The cost support is good, and the focus of market negotiation is higher. The South China market was boosted by futures and the rising trend of the mainstream East China market. The holders of goods rose along the trend, and the enthusiasm for buying was not high. The manufacturers maintained stable prices for shipment, and the downstream was mainly on demand.

The domestic ABS market rose in September, and the ABS cost support was good. In terms of industry load, the expected increase in the commencement of some ABS production lines in the early stage will be fulfilled, and the on-site supply will continue to be abundant, and the supply side will not reduce its pressure on the market. In terms of demand, although downstream enterprises mainly digested the pre festival inventory after the festival, the midstream increased in taking goods, the market atmosphere remained buoyant, and the downstream demand for goods preparation for the National Day holiday was approaching, gathering enterprises’ confidence was strong.

In the near crude oil period, the crude oil price has dropped sharply, the cost support is insufficient, the styrene inventory has accumulated, and the downstream demand is expected to weaken. The business community expects that the styrene market will decline mainly in the short term.

On the first day after the festival, the domestic ethyl acetate market rose, with a range of about 100 yuan/ton. Shandong Dachang raised the base price of auction substantially, by nearly 200 yuan/ton. The market in Shandong has been significantly boosted, and the trading atmosphere in the market is fair. The price in East China has not changed much. The price of raw materials and acetic acid rebounded slightly in some areas, and the cost improved. The supply and demand of ethyl acetate are basically balanced, and the downstream just needs to follow up. It is expected that the ethyl acetate market will maintain a volatile pattern in the short term. It is recommended to pay attention to the price implementation of the raw material acetic acid and ethyl acetate manufacturers. At present, the mainstream transaction price in the market is 6700-7000 yuan/ton.

Recent domestic isobutyraldehyde price trend

As can be seen from the figure above, the market price of isobutyraldehyde rose first and then fell in September. The market price of isobutyraldehyde rose from 7300.00 yuan/ton on September 1 to 8133.33 yuan/ton on September 7, an increase of 1.42%. Later, it fell to 5933.33 yuan/ton on September 30, down 27.05%. A year-on-year drop of 61.72%.

On September 30, the isobutyraldehyde commodity index was 30.12, down 1.18 points from yesterday, hitting a new record low in the cycle, and down 71.47% from the peak of 105.58 on September 16, 2021. (Note: the cycle refers to 2021-09-01 to now). From the weekly histogram of isobutyraldehyde, the overall isobutyraldehyde rose first and then fell in September, with a maximum weekly decline of 7.41%.

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the price of domestic mainstream isobutyraldehyde manufacturers rose first and then fell in August, and the manufacturer’s inventory was average.

The upstream support is good, and the downstream demand is general

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of isobutyraldehyde, the upstream propylene market of isobutyraldehyde rose slightly in September. The price of propylene rose from 7100.60 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 7620.60 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 7.32%. A year-on-year decrease of 5.83%. The increase of upstream cost support has a positive impact on the price of isobutyraldehyde.

Downstream neopentyl glycol rose in September due to market volatility. The price of neopentyl glycol rose from 9966.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 10066.67 yuan/ton at the end of the month, up 1.00%. Downstream market rose slightly, and there was a downward trend at the end of the month. Downstream manufacturers were generally enthusiastic about purchasing isobutyraldehyde.

The market fell slightly after shocks

In the first ten days of October, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market may slightly fluctuate and decline. Although the upstream propylene price rose slightly, the cost support improved. However, there is a downward trend in the market of neopentyl glycol in the downstream. Downstream factories are less active in purchasing isobutyraldehyde, and the product trend is downward under the contradiction between supply and demand. The isobutyraldehyde analysts from the business community believe that the domestic isobutyraldehyde market may suffer a slight shock and decline in the short term under the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects.

1、 Price trend

2、 Market analysis

According to the data of the business agency, the domestic potassium sulfate market fell in September, and the spot prices of various brands were lowered. As of September 29, the average price of 50 domestic potassium sulfate granules was 4300 yuan/ton, up or down by -10.42% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

This month, the domestic potash fertilizer market atmosphere was weak, and the momentum was insufficient. The operating rate of Mannheim type potassium sulfate enterprises remained low. In the second half of the month, some enterprises, such as SDIC Luoke, increased their load by producing autumn compound fertilizer, but the industry load was still adjusted by a narrow margin around 23%. Although the supply of potassium sulfate enterprises is low, there are abundant goods on the market, and it is difficult for the supply side to support the spot goods. The upstream potassium chloride fell continuously. At the end of the month, the pricing information of the big factories was released next month, and the market stabilized. The border trade and port cargo volume remained high in the middle of the month. Imported and domestic goods filled the domestic inventory at the same time, and the shipping and shipment situation was poor. Downstream enterprises, such as potassium carbonate and potassium nitrate, have been slow in purchasing, and businesses have lost money and dumped goods. Potassium chloride does not support processing potassium sulfate enterprises well. Downstream consumption is weak, the flow of compound fertilizer goods in the third quarter is slow, the sales pressure in the north is more prominent, and the market supply is under pressure from many parties. The mentality of businessmen is weak, and the market offer is low.

3、 Future market forecast

According to the potassium sulfate analysts of the business community, the domestic potassium sulfate market fell in September, and the potassium chloride market stabilized after falling. The domestic potassium sulfate cost support is weak, the supply side is sufficient, and the demand side follow-up is poor. It is expected that the domestic potassium sulfate price will operate at a low level due to the continuous poor demand in the short term.

Trade name: urea

Latest price (September 28): 2553 yuan/ton

On September 28, the comprehensive price of domestic urea was temporarily stable, unchanged from that on September 27, and down 9.36% year-on-year. The upstream anthracite price rose slightly, with good cost support. Agricultural demand is small, and industrial demand is gradually expanding. The production of rubber sheet plants is low, and the purchase of rigid demand is the main demand. The production of compound fertilizer plants is increasing, and the demand for urea is slightly increasing. The price of melamine rose slightly, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement was good. In terms of supply, the daily urea production decreased slightly due to the short shutdown of units in some regions.

In the future, the domestic urea market price is expected to rise slightly, with the average market price at about 2570 yuan/ton.