The domestic cobalt price fell in shock this week

According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of December 19, the domestic cobalt price was 329500 yuan/ton, down 0.09% from 329800 yuan/ton on December 11. The decline of international cobalt price slowed down, the price of cobalt salt became weak and stable, and the domestic cobalt price decreased slightly.

MB price fell slightly

It can be seen from the MB price trend chart that the MB price fell slightly this week, the international cobalt price fell, the decline of the international cobalt market slowed down, the domestic cobalt market was negative, and the domestic cobalt price fell.

3C market consumption downturn

In recent years, the performance of mobile phones has been excessive, and the innovation of new products has been reduced, resulting in the lack of mobile energy for consumers. Consumer demand for mobile phones continues to decline, and the domestic smartphone replacement cycle is expected to increase to 34 months. According to the latest report of IDC, it is estimated that in 2023, the shipment volume of China’s mobile phone market will decline 0.9% year on year, narrowing the decline; Although the epidemic prevention policy began to relax, the national consumption level still needs to recover. 3C market consumption is sluggish, while cobalt market demand is still sluggish.

Overview and prospect

Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst from the business community, believes that the international cobalt price fell slightly this week, the cobalt salt price fell, the cobalt market was negative, and the demand in the cobalt market remained sluggish. In the future, the demand in the cobalt market is sluggish, and the cobalt price is expected to decline due to shocks.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of December 17, the average price of PMMA for domestic general transparent premium products was 15500.00 yuan/ton, which was not significantly changed compared with the same period last week. The overall market supply and demand were balanced, and the operating rate was stable.

This week, the domestic general transparent superior PMMA was running steadily, and the quotation range of mainstream manufacturers was about 16000 yuan/ton. At present, the overall logistics is slow. The downstream just needs to purchase, and the manufacturers give up profits and take orders.

Rubber and plastic index: On December 16, the rubber and plastic index was 668 points, unchanged from yesterday, 36.98% lower than the highest point in the cycle 1060 points (March 14, 2012), and 26.52% higher than the lowest point 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present).

PMMA analysts from the business community believe that in the short term, PMMA is mainly stable.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of December 15, 2022, the reference price of the domestic silicone DMC market was 16980 yuan/ton. Compared with the reference price of 16800 yuan/ton on December 9, 2022, the price increased by 150 yuan/ton, or 1.07%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that this week (12.09-12.15), the domestic silicone DMC market generally ran up in a narrow range. In this week, Shandong large silicone DMC factories raised the price of silicone DMC to 16900 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton. At present, the downstream demand of silicone DMC has improved to a certain extent, but the overall demand is still based on cautious low mining. After Shandong’s big factories led the rise, other monomer factories mainly offered multi-dimensional stable prices, and the difference between high and low prices in the silicone DMC market narrowed. As of December 15, the market price of domestic silicone DMC was around 16900-17200 yuan/ton.

Prediction of the future trend of silicone DMC market

It is heard that there is a restart plan for the silicone DMC device in Jiangsu recently, and the on-site supply of silicone DMC may increase. The silicone DMC data engineer of the business community believes that, as the downstream pre holiday stock has not been fully opened, if there is no decrease in supply, the momentum for the silicone DMC market to continue to rise is insufficient. In the short term, the silicone DMC market will mostly adjust to operate in a narrow range, and more attention should be paid to the changes in supply and demand information after the specific trend.

On December 1, the average production price of paraformaldehyde in Shandong was 5433.33 yuan/ton, and on December 14, the average production price of paraformaldehyde in Shandong was 5416.67 yuan/ton, down 0.31%. It fell 14.92% year on year.

Upstream methanol situation: domestic methanol market fluctuated, mainly due to supply and demand. In terms of supply, most production enterprises focus on de stocking, and traditional downstream enterprises also have early parking performance, resulting in weak overall demand performance.

Recently, the methanol market has a trend of shock and decline, and the cost support is poor. In addition, the logistics in Shandong is not smooth, and the polyformaldehyde analysts of the business community predict that the price may fall slightly.

1、 Price trend

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic market of imported potassium chloride is temporarily stable this week, with the price of 3883.33 yuan/ton. The arrival price of potassium chloride in domestic salt lakes this week is 3500-3600 yuan/ton. On December 11, the potassium chloride (import) commodity index was 102.19, unchanged from yesterday, 29.40% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 144.74 (2022-06-21), and 5.67% higher than the lowest point of 96.71 on September 16, 2021. (Note: Period refers to 2021-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of domestic mainstream potassium chloride manufacturers is temporarily stable this week: the arrival price of 60% potassium chloride in Qinghai Salt Lake is 3500-3600 yuan/ton. Xiangyang Youdeshi’s potassium chloride dealer quoted 3800 yuan/ton this weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with last weekend. Zibo Dehe’s potassium chloride dealer quoted 4000 yuan/ton this weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with last weekend. Anhui Badou’s potassium chloride dealer quoted 3850 yuan/ton this weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with last weekend. The self raised price of 62% white potassium at the port is about 3700-3800 yuan/ton. The self raised price of 60% Dahong granules at the port is about 3800-4000 yuan/ton. 62% of Russian white potassium in border trade is about 3600 yuan/ton.

From the perspective of the downstream market of potassium chloride, the factory price of potassium carbonate was adjusted at a low level this week, at 9225.00 yuan/ton, a year-on-year increase of 13.42%. This week, the factory price of potassium nitrate was adjusted at a low level, at 5875.00 yuan/ton, down 0.42% year on year. On the whole, the downstream market of potassium chloride was consolidated at a low level, and the downstream customers’ demand for potassium chloride was average.

3、 Future market forecast

In the middle and late December, the overall trend of potassium chloride market was dominated by narrow fluctuations. The price of potassium chloride in Salt Lake and Zangger was adjusted at a low level. The downstream market of potassium chloride was consolidated at a low level. The downstream demand was general, and the procurement was mainly just needed. International potash fertilizer prices rose slightly. Potassium chloride analysts from the business community believe that the domestic potassium chloride import price may rise slightly in the short term.