The domestic BDO market is narrow and organized. Most traders hold a steady wait-and-see attitude. The atmosphere of real order negotiation is light. The supply and demand negotiation is a game. The market focus is stuck. Although some maintenance devices such as Shaanxi Shanhua and Chongqing Jianfeng have been restarted, and the market supply has increased, the demand for BDO of Henan Hemei after the shutdown of the device has been met. The supply and demand parties negotiate and play games, and the market is difficult to rise and fall.

According to the sample data monitored by the business community, from November 25 to December 2, the average weekly price of domestic BDO manufacturers remained at 9880 yuan/ton, and at 9716 yuan/ton at the weekend. During the cycle, the price fell 1.66%, 33.11% month on month, and 68.91% year on year. In terms of market price, the mainstream of spot bulk water in South China negotiated 9100-9400 yuan/ton, and the barrel negotiated 10500-11500 yuan/ton (delivered by acceptance). The spot bulk water in East China is mainly negotiated at 9000-9300 yuan/ton, and the barrel bulk water is negotiated at 10500-11500 yuan/ton (delivered by acceptance).

In terms of upstream raw materials, raw material calcium carbide: the business community monitored that the domestic calcium carbide price rose slightly, with the price at the beginning of the week at 3700 yuan/ton, and at the weekend at 3798 yuan/ton, up 2.65%.

In terms of methanol, the business community monitored that the price of domestic methanol in East China ports was weak and lower, which was 2811 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 2670 yuan/ton as of 10:00 a.m. on December 2, with a 5.04% drop in the price during the cycle. At present, the domestic methanol market is mainly organized.

In terms of downstream products, the overall performance of downstream demand is general, especially the weak demand for spandex at the main terminal leads to the accumulation of inventory, and the market of PTMEG spandex industry chain declines; In some downstream industries, replenishment ended when the market was low, and the current contract is mainly maintained.

The BDO market started at a high level, with abundant supply; Correspondingly, the downstream PBT industry started to increase, and the demand increased. The market presented a situation of both supply and demand. Business agency BDO analysts predict that the domestic BDO market is mainly weak.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the polyaluminum chloride commodity index on November 30 was 109.26, unchanged from yesterday, down 23.40% from the peak of 142.64 points (2021-11-01) in the cycle, and up 29.58% from the lowest point of 84.32 points on August 18, 2020. (Note: Period refers to April 1, 2019 to now)

Spot goods: according to the monitoring data of the business community, the domestic solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride market in November slightly increased by 0.5%, including 2011.25 yuan/ton on the 1st, 2017.5 yuan/ton on the 12th, and 2021.25 yuan/ton from the 18th to the end of the month. The demand for water treatment pharmaceutical products has decreased sharply this month due to the rapid cooling of the weather, the central heating in the middle and north of China, and the fierce impact of recent public health events in many places. The business of water treatment enterprises in Gongyi, Henan is more difficult than in previous years, with limited transportation and weak demand; The market of raw material hydrochloric acid is on the rise. In the short term, the manufacturer has sufficient inventory and few orders. The recent changes in raw material prices have little impact. In the short term, the polyaluminum chloride market is mainly stable, supplemented by small fluctuations.

Raw hydrochloric acid: According to the monitoring data of the business community, the domestic hydrochloric acid market fell first and then rose in November. On the first day, the market reported 186.67 yuan/ton, and on the 30th, 198.00 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 6.07%. The price at the end of the month fell 38.89% compared with the same period last year. From the perspective of manufacturers, the domestic hydrochloric acid market rose slightly this month, and downstream demand increased. From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the upstream liquid chlorine market was consolidated at a low level, with average cost support; Downstream market rose slightly, and downstream manufacturers became more active in purchasing hydrochloric acid. According to the analysis, the recent market of hydrochloric acid may increase slightly.

LNG for production. According to the data of the business society, the average price of domestic LNG on November 1 was 5450 yuan/ton, and the average market price on November 30 was 4514 yuan/ton, with a monthly drop of 17.17%, of which the largest drop this month was – 7.16% in the week of November 21. This month, the supply of domestic LNG market exceeded the demand, and the high liquid price began to cover the drop. In some areas, due to snow weather and epidemic control, transportation is blocked. Enterprises cut prices one after another to digest inventory. Market demand is weak and trading is flat. However, at the end of the month, domestic cold air hit, and demand increased slightly. Most liquid plants were still paying high prices. It is expected that the price of LNG will continue to rise in the short term.

Future forecast: The recent public health events in many places across the country have had a strong impact, sealed and controlled management, the economy is expected to decline, the demand is not as good as in previous years, and the water treatment market in 2022 is not as good as the same period last year. The light snow has passed, the weather is cold, the downstream demand for commencement continues to be weak, the inventory is sufficient, and the cost of raw hydrochloric acid and energy LNG has risen. However, the recent orders are limited, the inventory is sufficient, and the manufacturer’s purchasing enthusiasm is not high. In the future, when the manufacturer’s stock of raw materials is exhausted, if the raw material market continues to rise, the manufacturer’s procurement and cost will rise, the polyaluminum chloride market will rise with it, but in the short term, the polyaluminum chloride market is expected to continue to fluctuate steadily, moderately and slightly.

In November 2022, the cost end support of viscose staple fiber market will weaken, the demand will continue to be poor, the industry chain will lack confidence, and the price will be weak and stable. It is difficult for the downstream people to improve their cotton yarn trading, focusing on the digestion of inventory, lacking of terminal orders, the operating rate has gradually declined, and local price reductions and promotions have continued. The price of human cotton yarn continues to decline.

Price trend of viscose staple fiber

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the price of viscose staple fiber in November was basically stable. As of November 29, 2022, the ex factory quotation of 1.2D * 38mm viscose staple fiber in domestic areas was 13200 yuan/ton, basically unchanged compared with the beginning of the month; The price of human cotton yarn was weak and declined. As of November 29, 2022 (30S, ring spinning, first class), the average ex factory price was 17766 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the price at the beginning of the month, with a monthly drop of 0.56%.

Inventory and demand

The current weak demand is hard to change, the new viscose staple fiber transaction is limited, the physical inventory may increase, and the supply pressure remains. Human cotton yarn continues to be weak, mainly consuming its own inventory. Some are just in need of purchase. The factory’s operating rate has slightly declined. The manufacturers mainly ship. The terminal demand shows no signs of improvement. In the short term, the willingness to take goods is not high, and the demand side continues to operate weakly.

Future market forecast

In the near future, the supply side of viscose staple fiber may be loose, while the downstream demand continues to be negative. In the situation of weak support at the cost side and poor demand, the confidence of the industrial chain is still insufficient, and the viscose staple fiber market is difficult to get rid of the weak situation. Analysts from the business community predict that the prices of viscose staple fiber and rayon yarn will continue to operate in a weak and stable manner next month.

Price trends: on November 28, Sinopec North China: Qilu Petrochemical offered 6700 yuan/ton, Shijiazhuang Petrochemical 6750 yuan/ton, and Tianjin Petrochemical 6800 yuan/ton;

East China: Yangzi Petrochemical quoted 6800 yuan/ton;

South China: Hainan Refining&Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 6800 yuan/ton;

Central China: Wuhan Ethylene, 6800 yuan/ton;

Others: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 6750 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical 6850 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical 6703 yuan/ton, Xinhai Petrochemical 6700 yuan/ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical 6850 yuan/ton.

 
Analysis and comments: In terms of crude oil, the market focuses on the issue of western countries’ upper limit on Russian oil prices, and no agreement has been reached at present; The oil price continues to be under pressure due to overlapping demand concerns.

Today, Jingbo Petrochemical reduced the price of pure benzene by 50 yuan/ton.

Crude oil and styrene continued to decline, and the expected inventory of pure benzene port continued to increase. In addition, the buying sentiment in the downstream was not good, so the pure benzene market had a strong negative atmosphere, and the price continued to be weak. Today, the price of pure benzene in China is 6700-6850 yuan/ton.

Spot price: spot price of domestic polyester staple fiber continued to fall this week (11.21-11.25). According to the price monitoring of the business community, the average price of domestic polyester staple fiber was about 7462 yuan/ton on November 25, down 1.19% from Monday and up 2.90% from the same period last year.

Futures market: the main force of short fiber futures ended lower in shock this week. On Friday, the staple fiber PF futures contract closed at 6634, down 4.90% from the closing price last week. The settlement price is 6620 yuan. This week, the main domestic staple fiber upstream raw material PTA futures fell 4.64% and closed at 5138, while the main ethylene glycol futures rose 1.32% and closed at 3928.

Concern about the weak prospect of crude oil demand in the future and the continuous interest rate increase in the United States, it is rumored that OPEC+may discuss increasing crude oil production. EIA data shows that the growth of U.S. distillate oil and gasoline inventories last week exceeded expectations, and oil prices were depressed this week. The main force of US oil futures fell 2.29% to close near US $78.4 per barrel (as of 15:15 on the 25th Beijing time). The fall in crude oil price has weakened the support for PTA cost. PTA’s new production capacity is about to be tested, and the accumulated storage is expected to rise. The high inventory of the downstream polyester factories will not be changed, and the large factories may jointly reduce production. The demand is poor, and the PTA price will maintain a downward pattern this week. The falling crude oil price has weakened the support for ethylene glycol cost, and the downstream demand has remained sluggish. However, due to the impact of poor efficiency, the unplanned maintenance of ethylene glycol has increased recently, and the operating rate remains low. In the case of a large decline in the previous period, the price of ethylene glycol was also at a relatively low level. Ethylene glycol futures prices rebounded slightly this week. The stocks of staple fiber manufacturers continued to increase this week, and some large factories reduced production. The orders of downstream yarn mills and weaving mills are not good, the operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is declining, the demand for raw materials continues to be weak, Duowei holds the rigid demand for procurement, the production and sales of staple fibers continue to be sluggish, and the price continues to fall. This week, the prices of pure polyester yarn and polyester cotton yarn remained weak, and the sales were light. The buyers just needed to talk about goods delivery, and the overall inventory was slow.

In the future, the center of the cost of staple fiber raw materials has moved down, the characteristics of the downstream off-season are obvious, and the demand continues to be weak. It is expected that after December, the phenomenon of textile enterprises giving annual leave in advance will further increase, and staple fiber may continue to accumulate. Short term or weak fluctuation trend of staple fiber price. Pay attention to raw material price trend, plant dynamics and downstream orders.