Recent price trend of isooctanol

As can be seen from the figure above, the ex factory price of isooctanol in Shandong Province fell slightly this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream isooctanol manufacturers in Shandong Province dropped from 9266.67 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 8866.67 yuan/ton at the end of this week, a decline of 4.32%, and a year-on-year drop of 48.55% compared with the same period last year. On September 12, the isooctanol commodity index was 65.20, unchanged from yesterday, down 52.58% from the peak of 137.50 (2021-08-08) in the cycle, and up 85.49% from the lowest point of 35.15 on February 1, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

The upstream support is strengthened, while the downstream demand is weakened

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the ex factory quotation of Shandong isooctanol mainstream manufacturers fell slightly this week.

From the perspective of the upstream raw material market of isooctanol, the propylene market rose slightly this week, with the price rising from 7040.60 yuan/ton at the weekend to 7320.60 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 3.98%, 4.26% lower than the same period last year. The market price of upstream raw materials rose slightly, and the cost support increased. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a positive impact on the price of isooctanol.

From the downstream market of isooctanol, the DOP factory price fell slightly this week. The DOP price dropped from 10050.00 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 9650.00 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 3.98%, a year-on-year decrease of 34.02%. Downstream DOP prices fell slightly, and downstream customers’ enthusiasm for purchasing isooctanol weakened.

The upstream support is strengthened, the downstream demand is weakened, and the future market of isooctanol is bullish

In the middle of September, the market of Shandong isooctanol rose slightly. The upstream propylene market rose slightly, the cost support increased, the downstream DOP market fell slightly, and the downstream demand was insufficient. According to the isooctanol analysts of the business community, the short-term domestic isooctanol market may rise slightly due to the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the market price trend of phthalic anhydride in China is rising. As of June 6, the quotation of phthalic anhydride is 8925 yuan / ton. The spot supply on the market is normal and the marketing situation is general.

The price trend of domestic phthalic anhydride market is rising, the delivery situation of phthalic anhydride market is general, the downstream demand has not changed much recently, the price trend of upstream orthobenzene is rising, the plasticizer market is slightly declining, the spot supply of phthalic anhydride in the market is normal, and the market price of phthalic anhydride is rising. Some domestic phthalic anhydride units were shut down for maintenance, the operating rate of phthalic anhydride in the field was less than 60%, the domestic spot supply of phthalic anhydride was reduced, the market price trend was mainly upward, and the downstream plasticizer industry market was slightly lower. The actual transaction was normal. The market price of phthalic anhydride in East China is rising, and the high-end transactions in the market are limited. The mainstream of the negotiation on the source of goods from neighboring France in East China is 9000-9200 yuan / ton, and the mainstream of the negotiation on the source of goods from naphthalene method is 8800-8900 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation of phthalic anhydride market in North China is 8900-9000 yuan / ton. The wait-and-see mentality of phthalic anhydride market still exists, and the downstream is mainly purchased on demand. Recently, the market trend of adjacent benzene has risen, and it is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride will rise in the later period.

On September 5, the price of aluminum fluoride was temporarily stable

According to the data of business agency, on September 5, the market of aluminum fluoride was temporarily stable, and the price of aluminum fluoride was temporarily stable. As of September 5, the average price of domestic aluminum fluoride was 10650 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable compared with the price of aluminum fluoride on September 4 of the previous trading day, and 10650 yuan / ton on September 1 of the beginning of the month.

Key points of analysis

Recently, the price of hydrofluoric acid fluctuated and fell, the price of fluorite temporarily stabilized, and the cost of aluminum fluoride dropped; As the temperature drops and precipitation increases, the increase in power generation in Sichuan expires, the start-up of electrolytic aluminum enterprises resumes one after another, the price of electrolytic aluminum in the downstream fluctuates and falls, the price of cryolite is temporarily stable, and the demand for aluminum fluoride is low. Overall, the downward pressure of aluminum fluoride is high, and the upward momentum still exists.

Future forecast

The demand for cost reduction is temporarily stable, the downward pressure of aluminum fluoride is large, and the upward momentum still exists. In the future, the aluminum fluoride market is weak and stable.

Today’s phenol offers in various markets nationwide are as follows:

Region, quotation, rise and fall

East China, 9650, 150

Shandong, 9650, 100

Surrounding areas of Yanshan mountain, 9650, 150

South China, 9750, 150

Today, Sinopec East China phenol quotation increased by 200 yuan / ton to 9600 yuan / ton, and Sinopec North China phenol quotation increased by 150 yuan / ton to 9650 yuan / ton. With the positive pull of the factory’s price adjustment, the attitude of the shippers is positive, the focus of market negotiation is upward, and the terminal just needs to participate. Today’s transaction volume is general. The short-term replenishment of ships and cargoes is insufficient, and the overall supply side is tight. Next week, we will pay attention to the acceptance of the demand side after the adjustment. It is expected that the domestic phenol market will be strong. The reference value of the phenol Market in East China is 9650-9700 yuan / ton.

In August, the price of domestic polyester staple fiber showed a volatile downward trend. According to the price detection of business agency, the average price of domestic polyester staple fiber spot market on August 31 was 7726 yuan / ton, down 2.93% from 7960 at the beginning of the month, up 8.93% year-on-year. In the futures market, at the end of the month, the main short fiber contract closed at 7468 (settlement price 7438), up 0.73% from the beginning of the month.

The main reason for the weak trend of polyester staple fiber in August is still the weak cost and weak demand: the expectation of important progress in the negotiation of Iran nuclear agreement and the market’s concern about economic recession put pressure on the prospect of crude oil demand. In August, the international crude oil price fluctuated and weakened, and WTI crude oil fell 9.4% to close at 89 US dollars per barrel (as of 17:35, August 31, Beijing time). The drop in oil price dragged down the price of PTA and ethylene glycol, the raw materials of the upstream of short fiber, and the PTA period and spot month fell by 5.18% and increased by 1.99% respectively. Ethylene glycol futures and spot fell by 7.93% and 8.30% respectively. There are many short fiber maintenance devices in this month, and the inventory pressure is small. However, the new production capacity of xinfengming at the end of this month and the subsequent supply pressure will gradually increase with the completion of maintenance. In this month, the temperature is still high, the industry is still in the off-season, the downstream operation rate is low, and the demand and foreign trade continue to be weak. However, with the decrease of temperature at the end of the month, some cities relax power restrictions, the downstream operation rate has increased, and the demand has improved slightly.

Business analysts believe that the global economic recession worries and the next short-term oil price may still be not optimistic, and the cost side support of polyester staple fiber is weakened. In September, the textile terminal may gradually turn to the peak season, and the startup rate is expected to pick up, and the demand may improve. With the restart of the unit after overhaul and the landing of new production capacity, the supply pressure of staple fiber may increase in September. With the arrival of the traditional peak season of the industry, it is expected that the polyester staple fiber will be stable and strong in September.