According to the data of the bulk commodity list of the business community, the formaldehyde market in Shandong Province was consolidated this week. The average price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province was 1383.33 yuan/ton. The current price rose by 3.49% month on month, and the current price fell by 17.00% year on year.

formaldehyde

The price of formaldehyde market in Shandong Province was stable this week. It can be seen from the figure above that the formaldehyde market in the past two months has been dominated by a small upward trend, and the fluctuation of the market this week is not large. As of November 2, the mainstream market price in Shandong was 1350-1400 yuan/ton. Recently, the methanol market has been consolidated at a low level, with general cost support. The demand of downstream sheet mills is not good, and the purchase of just needed materials has been maintained. Influenced by the public security incident, few transactions have been made in the formaldehyde market, and the manufacturers’ shipments have stalled. The market is basically stable.

Upstream methanol: The domestic methanol market has been weak and consolidated recently. Local transportation is limited, and some enterprises have increased their inventories, which further aggravates the wait-and-see mood of traders. The supply side is abundant, the demand side has not improved, and the methanol market is difficult to improve.

Recently, the domestic methanol market has fluctuated at a low level, and the cost support is not good. The procurement of the downstream wood panel factory remains in demand. Therefore, the formaldehyde analysts of the Chemical Branch of the Business Cooperative predict that the recent price of formaldehyde in Shandong will mainly fall due to the volatility.

According to the monitoring of the bulk data of the business community, the acetic acid market rose first and then fell in October. The average price of acetic acid at the beginning of the month was 3312.20 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of the month was 3442.50 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 3.92% and a year-on-year decrease of 49.00%.

As of the end of the month, the details of acetic acid market prices in various regions in China in October are as follows:

Region, October 8, October 17, October 31

South China, 3350 yuan/ton, 3450 yuan/ton, 3400 yuan/ton

In North China, 3600 yuan/ton, 3700 yuan/ton, 3300 yuan/ton

Shandong, 3550 yuan/ton, 3650 yuan/ton, 3250 yuan/ton

Jiangsu Province, 3300 yuan/ton, 3300 yuan/ton, 3150 yuan/ton

Zhejiang Province, 3400 yuan/ton, 3400 yuan/ton, 3250 yuan/ton

In October, the acetic acid market rose first and then fell. At the beginning of the month, the methanol market on the raw material side rose, and the cost support was good. The downstream demand for replenishment after the festival was good. In addition, the utilization rate of acetic acid capacity in the field was low, the manufacturer’s shipment was smooth, the enterprise was optimistic, and the quotation continued to rise. Later, with the weakening of the downstream replenishment intention and the resumption of the acetic acid manufacturer Lu Xuhui in the market, the oversupply became more and more obvious. The dominant power turned to the buyer’s market, and the focus of the discussion among the holders shifted downward, Superimposed by the weakness of raw material methanol, the cost support is insufficient, the market mentality is bearish, and the price of acetic acid continues to decline. At the end of the month, Shandong enterprises shut down their acetic acid plants, slowing down the inventory pressure, and the acetic acid market stopped falling and stabilized.

The methanol market at the feedstock end rose broadly and then fell sharply. As of 31, the average price in the domestic market was 2790.00 yuan/ton, a 7.39% drop compared with 3012.50 yuan/ton on October 1. The price of methanol raw material natural gas fell, the methanol cost support weakened, while the downstream inventory was sufficient, purchasing was limited, and the market negotiation atmosphere was weak. In addition, due to the impact of public health, local transportation was blocked, and some enterprises increased their inventory. Traders intended to stock at this price, and methanol prices continued to decline.

The downstream ethyl acetate market rose first and then fell in October. The quotation at the end of the month was 6966.67 yuan/ton, down 0.52% from the beginning of the month. The raw material acetic acid market rose first and then fell. The market trading and investment were mainly weak. The cost of ethyl acetate was not supported enough. The downstream demand continued to be weak. Enterprises were not enthusiastic about getting goods. It was necessary to keep up with the demand. There was sufficient supply of ethyl acetate in the market, manufacturers reduced prices and discharged stocks. The market of ethyl acetate was weak.

According to the analysts of the business community, the acetic acid market is stable at present. Although some manufacturers have stopped their equipment at the supply end, the market supply is still high, while the downstream market entry continues to be weak, and the demand is not good enough. In the short term, the acetic acid market is temporarily stable. In addition, the market heard that Henan Shunda acetic acid plant has a parking plan. It is expected that the acetic acid market will fluctuate slightly in the future, and the specific market supply and demand will change.

441 # silicon price trend

The market price of metal silicon was stable in October. As of the 31st, the quotation of metal silicon nationwide was 21580 yuan/ton, up 1.51% from the beginning of the month. At the beginning of the month, the metal silicon market rose steadily. On the 12th, the market transaction warmed up, and the dry season was approaching. Silicon plants were reluctant to sell at a high price; Since the middle of the year, the metal silicon has maintained stability at a high level, and there are few inquiries from the downstream, resulting in deadlock between the upstream and downstream; At the end of the month, silicon prices fell steadily, downstream demand was weak, and low price supply gradually emerged.

Market analysis

Supply side

There is still a risk of supply disruption. Repeated outbreaks in Xinjiang and some regions have hindered transportation, resulting in slow production increase in some silicon plants. Southwest China entered a normal water period on the 26th, and the electricity price increased by 0.08-0.1 yuan/kWh. Yunnan Province increased on November 1st, and the cost of metal silicon smelting rose.

It is understood that as of October 30, the metal silicon furnace opening rate was 54.84%, including 120 in Xinjiang, 72 in Sichuan and 85 in Yunnan.

Inventory

As of October 28, the total inventory of metal silicon in the three places was 121000 tons, and the overall social inventory increased by 1000 tons compared with the end of last month, with a year-on-year increase of 98.4%. Huangpu Port has a large number of shipments and a small decrease in inventory. Due to public health incidents in many places in the north, transactions in Tianjin Port are relatively flat, and warehouse imports and exports are relatively stable.

Demand side

In October, polysilicon was stable. The three downstream products of metal silicon, only the demand for polysilicon remained prosperous, and new capacity continued to be put into production. The expectation of a large release of silicon materials was relatively strong. In the future, polysilicon may face excess.

The average quoted price of silicone DMC market in mainstream regions in China is 17840 yuan/ton. The downstream consumption of silicone is sluggish, the profit space is compressed, many manufacturers stop production, and the demand for metal silicon is weak.

The market price of aluminum alloy is 18700 yuan/ton, the operating rate of regeneration is 51.6%, the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy is 64%, and the operating rate is the same month on month. Small enterprises have reduced production, and the overall demand is poor.

Future market forecast

The southwest wet season at the supply end ended, and the production cost increased. The epidemic situation in Xinjiang affected the production reduction of enterprises, supporting the price of metal silicon to a certain extent. However, at the downstream consumer end, only the demand for polysilicon remained optimistic, while the consumption of aluminum alloy and organic silicon was stagnant. Due to the downstream demand, the price of metal silicon had limited room to rise. It is expected that the silicon price will operate weakly and stably in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of caustic soda fell in October as a whole. At the beginning of the month, the average price in the Shandong market was 1238 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average price in the Shandong market was about 1140 yuan/ton. The price fell 7.92%, and the price rose 33.04% compared with the same period last year. On October 27, the caustic soda commodity index was 168.92, down 4.61 points from yesterday, 36.37% from the highest point of the cycle 265.47 (2021-10-27), and 159.44% from the lowest point 65.11 on October 9, 2020. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the survey data of the business community, the domestic caustic soda price is now down. At present, the average market price in Shandong is about 1100-1200 yuan/ton. The factory quotation of 32% liquid caustic soda mainstream in Hebei is about 1170-1300 yuan/ton.

The price of caustic soda rose first and then fell this month, mainly due to the strong rise of 32% of liquid caustic soda in Shandong due to the impact of major enterprise maintenance. This is mainly because the enterprise has equipment maintenance, which is good for the market, and the demand of downstream enterprises is good. Moreover, the export of caustic soda is good, and the price of caustic soda continues to rise. The decline in caustic soda price in the late period was mainly due to the decline in the price of caustic soda on the market and the slow shipment compared with the early period. Most of the main caustic soda enterprises have stable production and sufficient supply of goods on the site, but the downstream market is mainly wait-and-see, and the shipment is more ordinary than in the early stage..

According to the price monitoring of the business community, there are 1 rising commodity, 2 falling commodities and 2 zero rising and falling commodities in the price list of chlor alkali industry in the 42nd week of 2022 (10.17-10.21). The main commodities that rose were hydrochloric acid (1.88%); The main commodities falling were caustic soda (-2.37%) and PVC (-0.69%). The average rise and fall this week was -0.23%.

The analysts of the business community believe that in the near future, the price of caustic soda will decline at the end of this month, the market supply is relatively sufficient, and the shipment situation is slower than in the early stage. The downstream will mostly purchase according to demand, mainly in a wait-and-see mood. It is expected that the caustic soda will mainly operate in the follow-up or weak market, depending on the downstream market demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of bulk commodity data, the price of Yunnan Guizhou yellow phosphorus market rose this month. The average price of yellow phosphorus at the beginning of the month was 36375 yuan/ton, and the average price at the end of the month was 37250 yuan/ton. The price rose within the month by 2.41%.

2、 Market analysis

The yellow phosphorus market price rose first and then fell this month. At present, the market trading and investment situation is average. Overall, it rose slightly. After the National Day holiday, yellow phosphorus moved upward, and after a small rise, the market weakened. Downstream picking up slowed down, inquiries increased, actual transaction was cautious, and yellow phosphorus market price fell back. In the second half of the month, the price of yellow phosphorus was relatively stable, and the manufacturers had a strong desire to support the price. Most manufacturers’ quotations were firm or suspended, and the actual transaction price in the market declined. Up to now, the manufacturer’s quotation is 37000 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is mainly negotiated on a single basis.

In terms of phosphate rock, the domestic phosphate rock market generally fell slightly. After the National Day holiday, the trading atmosphere in the phosphate rock yard was quiet, and the weak market situation of the terminal phosphate fertilizer market gave ordinary support to the phosphate rock. Most of the support in the phosphate rock yard came from the continuous tension of the supply side, and the offer of the operators was multi-dimensional and stable. Some mining enterprises in Sichuan reduced the price of the phosphate rock market slightly, with a reduction rate of about 10 yuan/ton. According to the phosphorus ore data engineer of the business community, in the short term, the domestic phosphorus ore market will mainly operate stably, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the specific information changes on the supply and demand side.

In terms of coke, the coke market experienced a round of increase in October 2022. As of the press release, the price of quasi primary metallurgical coke in Shanxi was 2600 yuan/ton, and the price at the beginning of the month was 2500 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 4%. The overall price of coke market rose slightly in October, but the market mentality was first strong and then weak. After the small and long holidays, affected by multiple factors, the coke enterprises have significantly limited production, and the automobile transportation has been affected to some extent. The overall supply of coke is tight, and the sales of finished products in the downstream have slightly improved. Under the influence of the double advantages, the first round of coke rose and landed. After landing, the coke market price tends to be stable. During this period, coke steel has a strong game mentality, but the price remains temporarily stable. In general, the heating season is approaching, the production restriction season of coking enterprises is coming, and the coke supply is expected to be further tightened. In the future, the focus will be on the profit of downstream steel plants, coke inventory in all links, and the impact of environmental protection policies issued by various regions near the heating season on the coke market.

In terms of demand, the price of phosphoric acid rose first and then fell in October. On October 1, the average price of phosphoric acid was 10160 yuan/ton, and on October 27, the average price was 9840 yuan/ton. The price fell within the month by 3.15%. The price of phosphoric acid rose first and then fell, with the overall market price mainly falling. At present, there is no good news on the market, cost support is weakened, manufacturers and dealers operate cautiously, and the industry is in a strong wait-and-see mood. It is expected that the market price of phosphoric acid will move downward in a narrow range in the short term.

3、 Future market forecast

Yellow phosphorus analysts from the Chemical Branch of the Business Cooperative believe that yellow phosphorus prices will rise first and then fall this month. The overall market price of downstream phosphoric acid fell, and the demand was relatively light. However, this month coincided with the end of the preferential electricity price policy in the wet season, and the coke price rose slightly. With the increase of costs in the next month, yellow phosphorus manufacturers are willing to support the price. It is expected that the yellow phosphorus market will remain deadlocked in the short term.