Zinc price rose on August 25

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the zinc price rose on August 25, and the zinc market rose. On August 25, the zinc price was 25690 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.04% over the zinc price of 25426 yuan / ton on the previous trading day; Compared with 2021, the zinc price increased by 12.22% year on year.

Key points of analysis

With the intensification of the European energy crisis, Russia has reduced the supply of natural gas in Europe, the European energy price has soared, the production of zinc smelters in Europe has increased, and the supply in Europe has decreased; The high temperature and drought in Sichuan have limited power supply, the industrial power consumption in Sichuan has been transferred to the people, the start-up of zinc smelters in Sichuan has decreased, and the supply of zinc has decreased. The upward momentum of zinc market has increased.

Future forecast

The supply and demand of zinc market are weak, the energy crisis in Europe is intensified, the domestic power supply is limited, the zinc smelting operation is low, the supply of zinc market is reduced, and the zinc price is expected to rise in the future.

According to the data of the trade agency’s bulk list, as of August 23, the average price of formic acid enterprises was 3766.67 yuan / ton, which was the same as that of last Thursday (August 18), down 3.42% compared with that of July 23, and down 41.15% year-on-year in a three-month cycle.

Recently (August 18-august 23), the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market price is stable. Recently, the market of caustic soda and liquid ammonia in the upstream has been consolidated, the price of sulfuric acid has been weak and stable, the market of methanol as the main raw material has been shaken and sorted out, the cost side has limited impact on the formic acid market, the downstream is purchased on demand, the market transaction is orderly, and the negotiation focus of industrial grade 85% formic acid market is stable.

In terms of cost: for the upstream caustic soda, on August 23, the price of caustic soda in Shandong Province was adjusted and operated. The mainstream market price was about 1020-1100 yuan / ton. The price of caustic soda was adjusted and operated. The downstream was mainly wait-and-see attitude, and it was expected that the adjustment trend would be maintained in the later period; Upstream liquid ammonia: on the 24th, the price of liquid ammonia in Shandong continued to be stable. The dealers reported that there might be a small margin of profit, and the market range was mainly adjusted in a narrow range; Upstream sulfuric acid: on August 23, the domestic sulfuric acid market price was temporarily stable; For upstream methanol, on August 23, the reference price of methanol was 2475.00, a decrease of 3.13% compared with August 1 (2555.00).

According to the formic acid analysts of the business association, the current impact of the cost side is general, the overall market trading atmosphere is mild, and the holders mainly wait and see. It is expected that in the short term, 85% of the domestic industrial grade formic acid market will be stable, and more attention should be paid to market information and guidance.

On August 23, the price of acetic acid in East China was 3052.50 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.75% over the previous working day. According to the market news, the supply of goods in some factories was reduced due to the shutdown and maintenance of acetic acid units or low load operation. The mentality of the holders was changed, and the price was slightly increased. The downstream demand was general, and the demand was mainly continued. The supply and demand game continued. The market of acetic acid in the future was limited. It is expected that the market of acetic acid will be consolidated, The price range fluctuates mainly, and the specific attention is paid to the market transaction.

1、 Price summary on August 19:

Shijiazhuang refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 7550 yuan / ton, and Qilu Petrochemical Co., Ltd. offers 7500 yuan / ton,

Yangba offers 7350 yuan / ton,

Guangzhou Petrochemical quoted 7500 yuan / ton, and Maoming Petrochemical quoted 7450 yuan / ton,

Changling Refining and chemical offers 7500 yuan / ton,

2、 Fluctuation trend:

3、 Analysis comments:

In terms of crude oil, the oil price rose slightly last Friday, but it recorded a weekly decline. At present, the market is still dragged by the strength of the US dollar and worries about the slowdown of fuel demand caused by the future economic recession.

Today, Sinopec South China increased toluene by 150 yuan / ton.

Crude oil rose slightly, toluene in the outer wall rose, and the cost was boosted; However, terminal gasoline is weak, and operators are cautious.

This week (August 15-19), the price of domestic liquid ammonia fell at the beginning of the week. From the middle of the week to the end of the week, the market was mainly stable. The prices of Shandong, Shanxi, Hebei, Henan and Hubei declined compared with the previous weekend, but the range was not large, mostly in the range of 100-200 yuan. The market supply is tight, but the demand for fertilizer in the downstream is still sluggish. The psychology of buying up but not buying down leads to unsatisfactory transaction. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of August 19, the weekly drop of liquid ammonia in Shandong was 1.23%, and the mainstream quotation range at the weekend was 3400-3700 yuan / ton.

Supply side

On the supply side, this week, the overall ammonia release in many places in China was slightly lower than that in the previous week, especially in the southwest and Inner Mongolia. In addition, the electricity restriction in Anhui also affected part of the supply, and the market supply decreased due to the maintenance of manufacturers in Shandong and Hebei. Under the condition of very weak demand, the continuous contraction of supply is the main reason for the price bottoming and stabilizing.

Cost side

Upstream coal prices fluctuated, rising by 1.02% this week, but prices remained high. The profit of downstream liquid ammonia is constantly squeezed. However, the coal price regulated by the state is still within a reasonable range. The downstream cost pressure is not great. At present, the profit of downstream methanol and liquid ammonia manufacturers is still within a reasonable range. Natural gas prices also fell this week, easing the cost pressure of gas head enterprises. According to the monitoring of business agency, the decline of liquefied natural gas this week was 2.98%.

Demand side

From the terminal point of view, the downstream demand for liquid ammonia is stable and there is no increase. The price of urea rose slightly, only 0.17%. Other products such as ammonium nitrate (- 4.11%) and ammonium chloride (- 5.37%) showed weak performance, with a significant decline. From the perspective of demand, agricultural demand is tepid and industrial demand is mainly. In particular, affected by the power limitation in Sichuan, the operating rate of manufacturers has dropped significantly, and urea plants have been shut down one after another, and the demand has dropped to the freezing point. Superimposed on the high price rise of coal in the upstream, liquid ammonia can be said to be under attack.

From the above figure, it can be seen from the price comparison chart of urea and liquid ammonia that the trend of liquid ammonia and urea is basically the same. Since the decline of urea is more obvious than that of liquid ammonia, the price difference between them is significantly narrowed.

From the above figure and the liquid ammonia industry chain diagram, it can be seen that the profit of the liquid ammonia industry chain continues to narrow, and the natural gas price in the upstream of the gas head has been falling, but the coal price is high. Although the price is still controlled by the policy, the middle and lower reaches still show general cost pressure. Due to the weakening of seasonal demand, the decline of compound fertilizer in the middle and lower reaches is obvious, and the profit of the enterprise meets the test. The profit of liquid ammonia, urea and compound fertilizer is significantly lower than that in the previous period.

Future forecast

The Business Association believes that at present, the supply and demand of the domestic liquid ammonia Market are still uncertain in the near future, especially due to the power limitation in Southwest China. In the short term, it may face the trend of tight supply. In the later period, it is necessary to continue to observe the operation of the manufacturers. The supply side is mainly good in the short term, but the demand side is not optimistic. On the one hand, the agricultural demand continues to be weak. In addition, the industrial demand also remains strong, and the impact of the epidemic is superimposed. It is expected that the short-term rigidity of liquid ammonia is strong, but the possibility of a large rebound is low.