List of ethylene glycol prices

According to data from Business News Agency, on July 26th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4108.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.66% compared to the beginning of the month. The prices in various regions are as follows:

The price range for spot goods executed by mainstream manufacturers in East China is between 3950-4125 yuan/ton; The spot price of ethylene glycol in the South China market is 4050 yuan/ton, while the mainstream manufacturers in Central China have a spot price range of 3900 yuan/ton for external execution; The spot price for mainstream manufacturers in North China is 4150 yuan/ton.

On July 25th, the CIF price of ethylene glycol in China was 480 US dollars/ton; The CIF Southeast Asia price is 488 US dollars/ton.

Ethylene glycol fundamentals

On the supply side, there is an expectation of a rebound in domestic maintenance equipment in the near future, while there is an expectation of a decrease in domestic ethylene glycol supply. In terms of port inventory, as of July 24th, the inventory of ethylene glycol at the East China main port was 977000 tons, which is 31400 tons from July 17th when it was 1008400 tons.

In terms of demand: Currently, there is little change in downstream polyester load, maintaining a high start-up rate of over 90%. The limited impact of terminal weaving is limited, and the initial construction will be maintained.

Short term ethylene glycol prices gradually enter the platform oscillation zone

The wave of rising raw material prices that began at the end of June, with coal and ethylene prices hitting the bottom and rebounding, and methanol prices rising, to some extent supporting ethylene glycol prices on the cost side. At present, the cost support of ethylene glycol has been strengthened compared to the previous period.

On the supply and demand side, there is a seasonal decline in operating rates and a short-term improvement in the supply and demand structure. In the short term, there is still strong support for ethylene glycol on the cost and supply sides. Ethylene glycol has been in a negative profit price range for a long time, and there is significant supply pressure in the medium to long term. It is expected that the short-term ethylene glycol price will gradually enter the platform fluctuation zone.

Recently (7.15-7.25), the market of Polybutadiene declined slightly. According to the commodity market analysis system of the business agency, as of July 25, the price of Polybutadiene in East China was 10770 yuan/ton, down 0.55% from 10830 yuan/ton in the middle of the month. The price of raw butadiene continues to rise, and the cost of Polybutadiene is supported; In the near future, the supply price of Polybutadiene has remained stable, and the offer of merchants has risen in the early stage and then dropped slightly. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of July 25, the ex factory price of Polybutadiene of Sinopec North China Sales Company had reported 10700 yuan/ton.

During the cycle (7.15-7.25), the supply pressure of Polybutadiene increased slightly compared with the previous period.

Recently (7.15-7.25), the low price of raw butadiene continued to rebound, and the cost focus of Polybutadiene rebounded. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of July 25th, the price of butadiene was 7143 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.35% from 6781 yuan/ton in the middle of the month.

Recently (7.15-7.25), the natural rubber market declined slightly, and support for Polybutadiene weakened. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of July 25th, the price of natural rubber was 11870 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.30% compared to 12150 yuan/ton in the middle of the month.

In the recent period (7.15-7.25), the tire operating rate has fluctuated slightly, with half steel tire operating slightly higher than the previous period, and all steel tire operating slightly lower than the previous period. The demand for rubber rigid needs is supported steadily. It is understood that as of mid July 2023, the operating load of rubber tire enterprises in Shandong Province is 6.3% for all steel tires and around 7.3% for half steel tires.

Future market forecast: analysts from the business community believe that the cost of Polybutadiene is supported by the soaring raw material prices. The pressure of Polybutadiene supply surface increases slightly when multiple devices are restarted; The downstream commencement fluctuates slightly, which is stable for Polybutadiene support; To sum up, it is expected that Polybutadiene will consolidate after rising in the short term. In the medium and long term, if the cost and demand continue to support, Polybutadiene may have the opportunity to continue to rise.

The price of Aluminium fluoride is weak and stable this week

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, as of July 24, the domestic price of Aluminium fluoride was 9650 yuan/ton, which was temporarily stable compared with the price of Aluminium fluoride on July 16 last weekend, 9650 yuan/ton; The price of Aluminium fluoride dropped by 2.53% from 9900 yuan/ton on July 1 at the beginning of the month. The price of raw materials is weak and stable, the cost of Aluminium fluoride is weak and stable, the downstream demand is weak, and the price of Aluminium fluoride is volatile and stable this week.

The price of raw material hydrofluoric acid is weak and temporarily stable

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of July 24th, the price of hydrofluoric acid was 9585.71 yuan/ton, which is temporarily stable compared to the price of 9585.71 yuan/ton on July 16th last weekend; Compared to July 1st, the price of hydrofluoric acid dropped by 9657.14, a decrease of 0.74%. In the slack season of refrigerant, the demand for hydrofluoric acid is weak, the price of hydrofluoric acid is weak and stable this week, the cost of Aluminium fluoride is weak and stable, and the downward pressure of Aluminium fluoride remains.

The price of fluorite has dropped this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of July 24th, the price of fluorite was 3056.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.20% compared to the price of 3062.50 yuan/ton on July 16th last weekend; The price of fluorite decreased by 1.96% compared to 3117.50 yuan/ton on July 1st at the beginning of the month. In the slack season of the market, the demand is weak. This week, the price of fluorite fell, the cost of Aluminium fluoride fell, and the downward pressure on Aluminium fluoride increased.

Aluminum prices fluctuated and fell this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of July 24th, the price of aluminum ingots was 18316.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.15% compared to the aluminum price of 18530 yuan/ton on July 16th last weekend; The aluminum price decreased by 1.26% compared to 18550 yuan/ton on July 1st at the beginning of the month. This week, the non-ferrous metal plate fell in shock, the aluminum price fell, the downstream demand support aluminum price was insufficient, Sichuan high temperature power rationing, Sichuan electrolytic aluminum enterprises were limited to start, Aluminium fluoride market demand weakened.

Market Overview and Forecast

The analysts of Aluminium fluoride industry from the business agency believe that: the prices of hydrofluoric acid and fluorite are weak and falling this week, and the cost of Aluminium fluoride raw materials is weak and falling; Power supply is limited in Sichuan, electrolytic aluminum starts to decline, and Aluminium fluoride demand drops. In the future, the demand for Aluminium fluoride will decline as the cost declines, and the downward pressure on Aluminium fluoride will increase.

Price trend

Recently, the domestic POM market has continued to show a positive trend, with spot prices continuing to rise. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of July 21, the average factory price of domestic POM was 12150 yuan/ton, a decrease of+9.46% compared to the price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

According to the analysis system chart of the commodity market of the Business Society, the price of formaldehyde in the Shandong region increased this week. The price of raw material methanol has risen, with strong cost support. Formaldehyde is mainly driven by rising costs, with manufacturers leading the market. However, poor demand from downstream panel factories has limited the increase in formaldehyde, and it is expected that the price of formaldehyde in Shandong will mainly fluctuate in the short term.

On the supply side:

The operating rate of domestic POM enterprises has recently remained high, with the current industry load of about 92% approaching full capacity. The high load situation continues, but after initial inventory removal, most enterprises have no inventory pressure, and even have negative inventory situations. In addition, some enterprises have maintenance plans in the later stage, and the current POM supply is tightening.

In terms of demand:

Currently, there is a tight supply of POM goods on the market, and the enthusiasm of terminal enterprises to stock up has been strengthened. However, later restrictions on electricity and other factors may continue to affect downstream enterprises’ operating rates, and the release of consumption will be affected, limiting the driving effect on spot prices. Traders have decent confidence.

Future Market Forecast

The POM market rose this week. The operating rate of domestic polymerization plants remains high, and there is a tight supply of goods on site. There is currently no industry inventory pressure, and suppliers have strong support for spot goods. On the demand side, downstream enterprises have started construction on a low level and the order situation is average. There is currently some bullish sentiment on the market, and it is expected that the bullish sentiment in the POM market may weaken in the short term due to the impact of off-season demand.

In the first half of 2023, the market of Epichlorohydrin will decline. According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the average price of Epichlorohydrin enterprises will be 9100.00 yuan/ton on January 1, 2023, and the average price of Epichlorohydrin enterprises will be 7575.00 yuan/ton as of June 30. The market will fall by 16.76% in half a year.

The first quarter of 2023: In January, the spot supply in the Jiangsu and Shandong markets was tight, and companies had a high price mentality. Before and after the Spring Festival, the market remained sluggish and stable, and the prices of companies remained stable. In February, there was significant cost support, but downstream demand was weak. Only small orders were needed for procurement, and factory shipments were under pressure. Accumulated inventory increased, and the supply and demand side dragged down the market. In March, the cost support remained. Some Epichlorohydrin units were shut down or operated at reduced load, but the demand support was weak. The downstream mainly consumed inventory raw materials, the market mentality was under pressure, and the focus of Epichlorohydrin negotiations was weak.

The second quarter of 2023: In the first ten days of April, some devices are in a shutdown state, the market spot supply is tight, and the downstream market inquiries increase, supporting the rise of Epichlorohydrin market. In the middle and late ten days, as some devices are restarted in succession, the market supply increases, the demand side dominates the market trend, and the Epichlorohydrin market fluctuates upward. In May, the production capacity utilization rate at the supply end remained low, but the demand follow-up was limited. Downstream, there was a high consumption of inventory raw materials, and there was mainly a demand for moderate replenishment on dips. The market trading atmosphere was light, and the market was weak. In June, the demand side dominated the market, the main downstream epoxy resin was weak, the consumption of contract volume and inventory was dominant, and the enthusiasm for market inquiry was not high. Just when small orders were needed to follow up, the market transaction continued to be under pressure, and the carrier delivered at the margin. Under the drag of demand, the focus of Epichlorohydrin market negotiation continued to decline.

Upstream and downstream: upstream propylene. According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, as of June 30, the average spot price of domestic propylene was 6518.25 yuan/ton, down 10.03% from 7244.60 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year, and the cost was weak in the face of Epichlorohydrin market support. The downstream epoxy resin, according to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the reference price of the epoxy resin was 12533.33 on June 30, a decrease of 20.84% compared with January 1 (15833.33), which was insufficient to support the Epichlorohydrin market.

After the weak consolidation of the market in July, the factory production and marketing have no pressure to support the market’s price mentality. At present, the cost side has some support, but the demand side performance is average. It is expected that the epoxychloropropane market will be consolidated in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.