Recent price trends of calcium carbide

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region has slightly increased this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in northwest China increased from 2866.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2950.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 2.91%. Weekend prices fell by 23.04% year-on-year. On July 16, the calcium carbide commodity index was 77.29, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 63.58% from the cycle’s highest point of 212.23 points (2021-10-26), and an increase of 39.29% from the lowest point of 55.49 points on March 14, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Upstream support is average, while downstream demand increases

From the supply side perspective, the factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region has slightly increased this week, and the inventory of manufacturers is average.

The upstream blue charcoal market has stabilized at a low level, while the downstream PVC market prices have slightly fluctuated and increased. This weekend, the price of Shenmulan charcoal is around 1020 yuan/ton, and the price is temporarily stable, with average cost support. This week, the PVC market price increased from 5498.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 5615.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 2.12%. Weekend prices fell by 13.60% year-on-year. The PVC market price has fluctuated slightly, leading to an increase in downstream customers’ enthusiasm for purchasing calcium carbide. The downstream PVC market has a positive impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Calcium carbide may fluctuate or rise in the aftermarket

In late July, the calcium carbide market may experience a narrow range of fluctuations and declines. The price of raw material blue charcoal has stabilized at a low level, with average cost support. The downstream PVC market has slightly increased, and downstream demand has increased. It is expected that the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region will fluctuate and rise in a narrow range in late July, with consolidation being the main focus.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, the spot price of PVC carbide SG5 has risen this week. Last Friday, the average domestic PVC price was 5490 yuan/ton, and this Friday’s average price was 5615 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 2.28% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

The price of PVC in the domestic Spot market rose this week. The increase in upstream calcium carbide prices this week, coupled with the delay of two policies in the “16 Financial Regulations” issued on the evening of July 10th, has boosted the confidence of the PVC market. The futures market continues to rise, and spot prices are gradually following suit. As of now, the quotation range for PVC5 carbide materials in China is mostly around 5450-5900 yuan/ton.

On July 13th, international crude oil futures rose. The settlement price of the main contract for US WTI crude oil futures was $76.89 per barrel, up $1.14 or 1.5%. The settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $81.36 per barrel, an increase of $1.25 or 1.6%. Inflation in the United States has cooled beyond expectations, the necessity for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates has decreased, coupled with seasonal peak demand from refineries and OPEC production cuts in oil producing countries, heating up the oil market.

In terms of calcium carbide, according to data monitored by the Business Society, the prices of calcium carbide manufacturers have increased this week. Last Friday, the average price of calcium carbide was 2866.67 yuan/ton, while this Friday’s average price was 2950 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 2.91% during the week. The price of raw material Shenmulan charcoal is around 1020 yuan/ton, with low prices consolidating and average cost support for calcium carbide. The downstream PVC market has recently slightly increased, and downstream customers have increased their enthusiasm for purchasing calcium carbide. In the future, it is expected that the factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region may slightly increase, with consolidation being the main focus. The average price quoted by the manufacturer is around 3000 yuan/ton.

In terms of terminal real estate, on the evening of July 10, the People’s Bank of China and the National Administration of Financial Regulation issued the Notice on Extending the Term of Policies Related to Financial Support for the Steady and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market (hereinafter referred to as the “Notice”). If there is a term of application for the relevant policies in the “Article 16 of Finance”, the term of application will be uniformly extended to December 31, 2024. It is understood that there are two policy extensions, involving stock financing for real estate enterprises and special loan matching financing issued by commercial banks. In the view of industry insiders, the extension of the two policies helps to promote project completion and delivery, while ensuring the delivery of the building, it also helps to repair market expectations.

3、 Future Market Forecast

PVC analysts from the business agency believe that the trading atmosphere in the PVC Spot market is good and the price is rising this week. The increase in upstream calcium carbide prices has provided strong support, coupled with the extension of two policies in the “Financial 16″, which has also boosted the confidence of the PVC market. It is expected that the PVC market will be relatively strong in the short term, and we will closely monitor changes in the news.

According to data monitoring by Business Society, as of July 12, 2023, the domestic market price of butanone was referenced at 7200 yuan/ton. Compared with July 7, 2023 (reference price of butanone was 7233 yuan/ton), the price was reduced by 33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.46%.

From the data monitoring chart of Business Society, it can be seen that this week (7.7-7.12), the overall market trend of domestic butanone showed a narrow downward trend. Entering this week, downstream businesses of butanone were cautious in purchasing, and there was a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the butanone market. The transmission between supply and demand was slow. At the beginning of the week, some butanone factories and suppliers actively lowered the price of butanone, with a narrow range of about 100 yuan/ton. Subsequently, the overall butanone market was weak and organized. As of July 12th, the domestic butanone market price was around 7000 to 7400 yuan/ton, and the lower price was around 6600 yuan/ton, The higher price is around 7500-7600 yuan/ton.

Analysis of the aftermarket of butanone

At present, the trading atmosphere on the market for butanone is relatively light, and the overall operation on the market is cautious. The butanone data analyst from the Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic butanone market will mainly adjust and operate in a narrow range, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

Product name: Yellow phosphorus

Latest price on July 11th: 23400 yuan/ton

Key points of analysis: On July 11th, the domestic yellow phosphorus market price rose. At present, the spot supply of yellow phosphorus on the site is relatively tight, and manufacturers mainly issue preliminary orders. Some manufacturers’ orders have been arranged for a week, making it difficult to find low-priced sources of goods on the site. Downstream pesticide enterprises just need to purchase, and the atmosphere of new order negotiations is strong.

It is expected that the market price of yellow phosphorus will be mainly strong in the short term, and the actual transaction will be discussed separately.

Recent price trends of hydrochloric acid

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price has temporarily stabilized this week, with an average market price of 179.60 yuan/ton. Weekend prices fell by 30.92% year-on-year. On July 9th, the hydrochloric acid commodity index was 47.26, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 65.73% from the cycle’s highest point of 137.89 points (2021-10-26), and an increase of 162.85% from the lowest point of 17.98 points on September 5th, 2012. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Upstream support is average, while downstream demand weakens

From the supply side perspective, the domestic hydrochloric acid market prices have temporarily stabilized this week, and manufacturers’ inventory is average.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market is consolidating at a low level, with average cost support. The price of downstream Aluminium chlorohydrate market fell slightly, from 1721.25 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 1712.50 yuan/ton at the end of the week, down 0.51%. Weekend prices fell by 23.21% year-on-year; The market price of ammonium chloride has stabilized at a low level, with a market price of 595.00 yuan/ton. Over the weekend, the price fell by 61.36% year-on-year. Overall, upstream support is average, while downstream demand is weakening.

Future Market Forecast

In mid to late July, the market price of hydrochloric acid may fluctuate and decline in a narrow range. The upstream liquid chlorine market was consolidated at a low level, and the cost support was general. The downstream Aluminium chlorohydrate market declined slightly, while the ammonium chloride market was consolidated at a low level, and the downstream purchase intention was weak. Analysts from Business Society believe that the recent slight fluctuations in the hydrochloric acid market have been the main trend.