Recently, a number of water treatment enterprises in the circle of friends of the water treatment data division of the business society issued such notices: “yesterday’s prices were all invalid”, “oral reservation is not accepted, payment, order and delivery”… The content is quite shocking. What happened? Please see the following thumbnail first:
It turns out that under the recent national “double control” policy, the price of chemical raw materials has increased. Under the comprehensive influence of factors such as the substantial increase of raw material cost and production cost, the reduction of spot inventory and national day order arrangement, the market of water treatment products has risen rapidly recently. The manufacturer’s quotation is cautious, the pricing and delivery are subject to the price of the day, and oral reservation is not accepted. In fact, the order arrangement is subject to payment.
Data monitoring shows that since the middle of the year, the mainstream price of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cation, molecular weight of 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in China’s market has been greatly adjusted, especially on the 22nd-28th, the price rose sharply from 14962.5 yuan / ton to 16225 yuan / ton, an increase of more than 8%.
Among them, the continuous rise of raw acrylic acid is the main influencing factor. Since the middle of the year, under the influence of the “double control” policy, the operating rate of the industry has continued to decrease, and the supply of spot acrylic acid in the market is tight. Acrylic acid has risen sharply from 15166 yuan / ton to about 18366 yuan / ton, an increase of 21%, resulting in a significant increase in the cost price of polyacrylamide and a rise in the market; As for the other raw material acrylonitrile, the recent price change, the mainstream quotation in the market is still about 14900-15000 yuan / ton, which has little impact on the cost of polyacrylamide.
Secondly, the recent sharp rise in the market of fuel liquefied natural gas has a certain impact on the market of polyacrylamide.
According to the data monitoring of business agency, the mainstream market price of liquefied natural gas in China rose sharply from the 14th to the 16th in the middle of the year, about 10%, and then the market fluctuated slightly. By the second half of the 28th, the mainstream price in the domestic market rose from 5833 yuan / ton to about 6290 yuan / ton, an increase of about 7.83%. It is reported that the liquid plant has strong sentiment of supporting the price. Under the circumstances of strict dual control of energy consumption and reduced demand of downstream gas consuming enterprises this month, the price of LNG remains volatile and the market is relatively strong. In the future, it is expected that the domestic liquid price will generally operate stably in the short term, but it is inevitable to reduce the price and arrange the inventory near the National Day holiday.
As for the future market, the change of downstream demand for polyacrylamide has little impact on the recent market, while the change of cost pressure and inventory is the prominent influencing factor of the recent sharp rise of polyacrylamide market. Under the current situation, in response to the national policy of “dual control of energy consumption”, the enterprise has limited operation, tight market supply and continuous rise in the market of raw acrylic acid; The fuel liquefied natural gas is also affected by the policy, so it is expected that in the future, the acrylic acid market may be strong in the short term, and polyacrylamide is likely to continue to rise in the future.
| PVA |