According to the data monitored by the business society, the PP market trend was strong in mid January, and the spot prices of various brands rose slightly. As of January 21, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) from domestic manufacturers and traders was about 8330 yuan / ton, with an increase or decrease of + 2.46% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.
| PVA 1799 (PVA BF17) |
Cause analysis
Industrial chain: upstream, propylene prices continued to rise this week, exceeding 8000 yuan. The maintenance of propylene units in Shandong increased, while the external supply decreased and the supply tightened. Towards the end of the year, the downstream began to prepare goods one after another. Stimulated by demand, the price of propylene rose strongly. Propylene price is at a stage high, downstream goods preparation is close to completion, some factories will have holidays, and it is unlikely to continue to rise in the future.
Upstream, the price of propylene raw material has risen, the recent shock of dynamic coal has warmed up, the international crude oil price has generally strengthened, and the PP cost support has strengthened. This week, there was abundant supply of PP goods. In the early stage, the parking inspection of enterprises and the production of equipment showed each other, and the supply tended to be stable. In terms of demand, at present, the pre Festival stock demand of terminal enterprises is coming to an end. At the same time, the arbitrage and hedging operations of traders are increasing, and the on-site trading is OK. The bottom of the spot price has been raised, and the low-end offer of merchants has risen, but there is great resistance to the delivery of high-priced goods.
In terms of fiber materials, according to the data monitored by the business society, as of January 21, the spot price trend of domestic fiber PP has increased. The mainstream offer price of Z30S (fiber) from domestic manufacturers and traders is about 8283.33 yuan / ton, with an increase or decrease of + 2.05% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month and – 4.24% year-on-year. Recently, PP fiber materials also have pre Festival stock demand, the consumption of end products is stable, the operating rate of the main downstream non-woven enterprises is maintained at more than 50%, and the profitability is generally stable. Terminal enterprises are about to enter the holiday schedule, and the demand will gradually decline in the later stage. The current positive trend of the market depends on the cost side, and it is expected that the increase of fiber material market may be limited in the near future.
| PVA |
In terms of melt blown materials, the melt blown PP market operated weakly and stably this week. As of January 21, the average quotation of domestic melt blown material sample enterprises monitored by business society was about 9483.33 yuan / ton, up or down – 0.35% compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month. During the period of high incidence of recent rebound in health events in various countries, the number of local diagnoses in some areas of China has increased. Recently, it has been reported that masks and other materials are in short supply in some areas. From the market point of view, the pull on the spot market of melt blown cloth is still flattened by the domestic saturated melt blown material supply. It is reported that there is still capacity transfer out at the beginning of the year, so there is great resistance to the rise of spot price of melt blown materials.
Future forecast
PP analysts of business agency believe that the domestic polypropylene market rose in mid January, the dynamic coal market stopped falling and the shock recovered, the crude oil was generally strong, and the cost side generally boosted the PP spot price. Terminal enterprises are in the pre holiday stock demand, and the on-site trading is OK. At present, the cost side dominates the market direction, and it is expected that the PP market may still be strong and volatile in the short term.
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