1、 Price data
As of February 13, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was 8413.25 yuan / ton, down 0.15% from 8425.25 yuan / ton on February 7. The actual transaction price of ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was about 8200-8500 yuan / ton.
As of February 13, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined straight run naphtha was 8187.50 yuan / ton, up 0.28% from 8165.00 yuan / ton on February 7. The actual transaction price of ground refined straight run naphtha was about 8100-8400 yuan / ton.
On February 13, the naphtha commodity index was 103.84, unchanged from yesterday, down 0.58% from the highest point of 104.45 in the cycle (2022-02-08), and up 145.83% from the lowest point of 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2012 to now)
2、 Analysis of influencing factors
This week, the price of refined naphtha first rose and then fell. During the Spring Festival, the sharp rise of international crude oil drove the naphtha market to rise continuously. After the festival, businesses actively replenished goods to boost the naphtha market. In the second half of the week, the price fell slightly due to the fluctuation of crude oil.
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Upstream: the escalation of tensions between Russia and Ukraine has exacerbated concerns about tight global energy supply. In addition, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that unless OPEC’s major oil producing countries in the Middle East increase production, the global oil price may rise further, because it is difficult for the OPEC alliance to resume production for a “long time”, and the crude oil price has risen to a seven-year high of more than $90 a barrel. Due to the rebound in demand after the epidemic, the global supply lags behind, and the oil inventory is at the lowest level in seven years, Crude oil prices rose. The situation in Ukraine and Russia is tense, and multiple factors affect the rise of international oil prices.
Downstream: according to the monitoring of the business community, toluene rose broadly after the festival and fell back. The price was 6290 yuan / ton on January 30 and 6860 yuan / ton on February 11, up 9.06% from before the festival. The price of mixed xylene rose broadly after the festival and fell slightly in the second half of the week. The price was 6490 yuan / ton on January 30 and 7140 yuan / ton on February 11, up 10.02% compared with that before the festival. In the PX market, the market price of p-xylene rose this week. As of the weekend, the ex factory price of domestic p-xylene was 8000 yuan / ton, up 9.59% from 7300 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.
3、 Future forecast
According to the energy analysts of business society, the international crude oil price is high, the product oil market is high, and the naphtha market price is high. At present, there is no pressure on the inventory of local refining enterprises, and the terminal just needs replenishment. It is expected that the local refining naphtha may rise in the near future.
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