According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the commodity index of polyaluminum chloride on May 31 was 121.22, unchanged from yesterday, down 15.02% from the highest point of 142.64 in the cycle (2021-11-01), and up 43.76% from the lowest point of 84.32 on August 18, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)
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As shown in the figure, according to the monitoring data of the business society, the mainstream market of China’s polyaluminum chloride market fell in May, and the domestic mainstream quotation of solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride decreased from 2302.5 yuan / ton on the 1st to 2242.5 yuan on the 31st About RMB / ton, with a monthly decrease of 2.61%. In this month, the production of enterprises in the main domestic production areas was normal, and the market inventory was sufficient; The downstream demand continues to be average, and some parts are gradually weakened by the impact of transportation capacity and cost. The pressure on enterprises to ship goods is large, and the transaction is not easy.
Industrial chain: in terms of upstream raw materials, hydrochloric acid: the monitoring data of the business society showed that the domestic hydrochloric acid market price first fell and then rose in May. The quotation first fell from 325.00 yuan / ton on May 1 to 300.00 yuan / ton on May 7, a decrease of 7.69%, and then rose to 320.00 yuan / ton on May 30, an increase of 6.67%, an increase of 41.17% over the same period last year. From the manufacturer’s quotation, the domestic hydrochloric acid market rose and fell this month, and the downstream demand was general; From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chains, the upstream liquid chlorine market rose slightly, which strengthened the support for hydrochloric acid; The downstream market fluctuates with each other, and the downstream is generally enthusiastic about purchasing hydrochloric acid. On the whole, the upstream and downstream products had a positive impact on the price of sulfuric acid this month. Business analysts believe that the recent market of hydrochloric acid may rise slightly.
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Liquefied natural gas is used in the production process. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of domestic LNG on May 31 was 6614 yuan / ton, down 8.24% from the price of 7208 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and up 84.06% compared with the same period last year. After the May Day holiday, the logistics recovered, and there was a certain demand for replenishment in the downstream. In addition, the good supply and demand of liquid plants in some regions promoted the slight increase of liquid prices in many places in China. However, since May 9, prices have stopped rising and turned down. At present, the demand in the off-season is weak, the receiving capacity of downstream users is general, in addition, the inlet gas price is lowered, the feed gas price is lowered, and the negative factors are dominant. The domestic liquid price is falling frequently, and the market continues to be weak. In May, the off-season of the market affected the demand. In addition, the price of feed gas was lowered, and the cost support further declined. As the Dragon Boat Festival is approaching, considering the poor logistics during the holiday and the reduction of prices by liquid plants, it is expected that the price of domestic liquefied natural gas will continue to decline.
Future forecast: in the near future, the policy is mainly to stabilize the economy, the water treatment enterprises are operating normally, the market inventory is sufficient, the demand driven change is not large, and the circulation is blocked and the transaction is weak under the influence of public health events this month; From the perspective of industrial chain, the price of raw hydrochloric acid goes down first and then up, and the cost support is becoming stronger; Fuel costs continued to fall. Therefore, it is expected that under the current economic and industrial background, the future polyaluminum chloride market is likely to be stable and weak with small fluctuations.
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