In July, the price of domestic polyester staple fiber stabilized after a sharp decline. According to the price test of business agency, the average price of domestic polyester staple fiber on the spot market was 7943 yuan / ton on July 31, down 10.01% from the price of 8826 at the beginning of the month, up 7.20% year-on-year. In the futures market, the main short fiber contract closed at 7414 at the end of the month, down 7.07% from the beginning of the month.
The main reason for the decline in polyester staple fiber prices in July was the weakening of costs and weak demand: the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike raised the risk of economic recession, and the blockade measures that may be brought about by the repeated global epidemic suppressed demand. In July, the international crude oil price volatility weakened, and WTI crude oil fell 7.26% to close at US $98.30 per barrel. The fall in oil prices dragged down the prices of PTA and ethylene glycol, the upstream raw materials of staple fiber, and the PTA period and spot month fell by 9.39% and 6.78% respectively. Ethylene glycol futures and spot fell by 3.05% and 2.67% respectively in the month. With the continuous high temperature, the off-season of the industry continues, the downstream operating rate declines, and the demand and foreign trade weaken, it is expected that the downstream demand will still be difficult to improve in the short term. However, in late this month, some textile enterprises in textile terminals had the atmosphere of bottom reading and replenishment after the continuous decline of staple fiber prices, and most of them returned to wait-and-see by the end of the month.
Business analysts believe that under the global economic recession and the expectation of the Federal Reserve to continue to raise interest rates, the short-term oil price may continue to fall, and the cost side support of polyester staple fiber will weaken. Textile terminals are still in the off-season, with low startup rate and weak demand. However, the spot supply of staple fiber is still tight, and some devices still have maintenance plans. The future trend of polyester staple fiber may still be dominated by cost. It is expected that polyester staple fiber will show a weak shock and stabilize trend in August. Pay attention to the changes in raw material prices, the epidemic, the situation in Russia and Ukraine, and the adjustment of U.S. tariff policies.
| PVA |