1、 Price trend
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According to the monitoring of bulk commodity data, the price of Yunnan Guizhou yellow phosphorus market rose this month. The average price of yellow phosphorus at the beginning of the month was 36375 yuan/ton, and the average price at the end of the month was 37250 yuan/ton. The price rose within the month by 2.41%.
2、 Market analysis
The yellow phosphorus market price rose first and then fell this month. At present, the market trading and investment situation is average. Overall, it rose slightly. After the National Day holiday, yellow phosphorus moved upward, and after a small rise, the market weakened. Downstream picking up slowed down, inquiries increased, actual transaction was cautious, and yellow phosphorus market price fell back. In the second half of the month, the price of yellow phosphorus was relatively stable, and the manufacturers had a strong desire to support the price. Most manufacturers’ quotations were firm or suspended, and the actual transaction price in the market declined. Up to now, the manufacturer’s quotation is 37000 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is mainly negotiated on a single basis.
In terms of phosphate rock, the domestic phosphate rock market generally fell slightly. After the National Day holiday, the trading atmosphere in the phosphate rock yard was quiet, and the weak market situation of the terminal phosphate fertilizer market gave ordinary support to the phosphate rock. Most of the support in the phosphate rock yard came from the continuous tension of the supply side, and the offer of the operators was multi-dimensional and stable. Some mining enterprises in Sichuan reduced the price of the phosphate rock market slightly, with a reduction rate of about 10 yuan/ton. According to the phosphorus ore data engineer of the business community, in the short term, the domestic phosphorus ore market will mainly operate stably, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the specific information changes on the supply and demand side.
In terms of coke, the coke market experienced a round of increase in October 2022. As of the press release, the price of quasi primary metallurgical coke in Shanxi was 2600 yuan/ton, and the price at the beginning of the month was 2500 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 4%. The overall price of coke market rose slightly in October, but the market mentality was first strong and then weak. After the small and long holidays, affected by multiple factors, the coke enterprises have significantly limited production, and the automobile transportation has been affected to some extent. The overall supply of coke is tight, and the sales of finished products in the downstream have slightly improved. Under the influence of the double advantages, the first round of coke rose and landed. After landing, the coke market price tends to be stable. During this period, coke steel has a strong game mentality, but the price remains temporarily stable. In general, the heating season is approaching, the production restriction season of coking enterprises is coming, and the coke supply is expected to be further tightened. In the future, the focus will be on the profit of downstream steel plants, coke inventory in all links, and the impact of environmental protection policies issued by various regions near the heating season on the coke market.
In terms of demand, the price of phosphoric acid rose first and then fell in October. On October 1, the average price of phosphoric acid was 10160 yuan/ton, and on October 27, the average price was 9840 yuan/ton. The price fell within the month by 3.15%. The price of phosphoric acid rose first and then fell, with the overall market price mainly falling. At present, there is no good news on the market, cost support is weakened, manufacturers and dealers operate cautiously, and the industry is in a strong wait-and-see mood. It is expected that the market price of phosphoric acid will move downward in a narrow range in the short term.
3、 Future market forecast
Yellow phosphorus analysts from the Chemical Branch of the Business Cooperative believe that yellow phosphorus prices will rise first and then fall this month. The overall market price of downstream phosphoric acid fell, and the demand was relatively light. However, this month coincided with the end of the preferential electricity price policy in the wet season, and the coke price rose slightly. With the increase of costs in the next month, yellow phosphorus manufacturers are willing to support the price. It is expected that the yellow phosphorus market will remain deadlocked in the short term.
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