441 # silicon price trend
The market price of metal silicon was stable in October. As of the 31st, the quotation of metal silicon nationwide was 21580 yuan/ton, up 1.51% from the beginning of the month. At the beginning of the month, the metal silicon market rose steadily. On the 12th, the market transaction warmed up, and the dry season was approaching. Silicon plants were reluctant to sell at a high price; Since the middle of the year, the metal silicon has maintained stability at a high level, and there are few inquiries from the downstream, resulting in deadlock between the upstream and downstream; At the end of the month, silicon prices fell steadily, downstream demand was weak, and low price supply gradually emerged.
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Market analysis
Supply side
There is still a risk of supply disruption. Repeated outbreaks in Xinjiang and some regions have hindered transportation, resulting in slow production increase in some silicon plants. Southwest China entered a normal water period on the 26th, and the electricity price increased by 0.08-0.1 yuan/kWh. Yunnan Province increased on November 1st, and the cost of metal silicon smelting rose.
It is understood that as of October 30, the metal silicon furnace opening rate was 54.84%, including 120 in Xinjiang, 72 in Sichuan and 85 in Yunnan.
Inventory
As of October 28, the total inventory of metal silicon in the three places was 121000 tons, and the overall social inventory increased by 1000 tons compared with the end of last month, with a year-on-year increase of 98.4%. Huangpu Port has a large number of shipments and a small decrease in inventory. Due to public health incidents in many places in the north, transactions in Tianjin Port are relatively flat, and warehouse imports and exports are relatively stable.
Demand side
In October, polysilicon was stable. The three downstream products of metal silicon, only the demand for polysilicon remained prosperous, and new capacity continued to be put into production. The expectation of a large release of silicon materials was relatively strong. In the future, polysilicon may face excess.
The average quoted price of silicone DMC market in mainstream regions in China is 17840 yuan/ton. The downstream consumption of silicone is sluggish, the profit space is compressed, many manufacturers stop production, and the demand for metal silicon is weak.
The market price of aluminum alloy is 18700 yuan/ton, the operating rate of regeneration is 51.6%, the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy is 64%, and the operating rate is the same month on month. Small enterprises have reduced production, and the overall demand is poor.
Future market forecast
The southwest wet season at the supply end ended, and the production cost increased. The epidemic situation in Xinjiang affected the production reduction of enterprises, supporting the price of metal silicon to a certain extent. However, at the downstream consumer end, only the demand for polysilicon remained optimistic, while the consumption of aluminum alloy and organic silicon was stagnant. Due to the downstream demand, the price of metal silicon had limited room to rise. It is expected that the silicon price will operate weakly and stably in the short term.
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