1、 Price trend
| PVA |
According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, aniline fell broadly this month and rebounded narrowly near the end of the month. On November 1, the aniline market price was 14700 yuan/ton; On November 28, the price was 10438 yuan/ton. The average price of aniline in this month fell 29% from the beginning of the month and 5.97% from the same period last year.
2、 Analysis and review
As for raw materials, the pure benzene market was hit by many negative factors this month, and the price fell due to shocks. 1、 Crude oil fell broadly and the cost was negative. 2、 The Asian American arbitrage window was closed, and the domestic price of pure benzene in China was at a high level, so the import volume of pure benzene in November was at a high level. Moreover, the overall supply of pure benzene market is sufficient. 3、 Downstream profitability is poor, styrene continues to decline, and the market is generally interested in buying pure benzene, which is a drag on the demand side. At the beginning of the month, the price of pure benzene was 7384 yuan/ton; The price at the end of the month was 6759 yuan/ton, down 8.46% this month and up 1.64% compared with the same period last year.
Nitric acid: The price of nitric acid rose this month. The price of nitric acid in East China was 2367 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 2417 yuan/ton at the end of the month. The price was 2.11% higher than the beginning of the month and 7.64% lower than the same period last year.
| PVA 1788 (PVA BP17) |
In October, due to the centralized maintenance of aniline devices, the capacity loss was obvious, the market supply was tight, and the price continued to rise. In November, aniline reversed its trend and fell all the way. Since the beginning of this month, the early maintenance devices have returned, and the on-site spot supply has increased significantly; However, due to the increased resistance to high priced aniline in the downstream, the operating rate has decreased and the demand for aniline has decreased. In the context of increased supply and reduced demand, aniline factory inventory began to accumulate and prices fell broadly under pressure. Near the end of the month, the price of aniline fell to a low level, which led to the improvement of downstream purchasing sentiment. In addition, due to the limited transportation of northern factories, aniline rebounded slightly.
3、 Future market forecast
Raw materials, pure benzene: the fundamentals are hard to change in the short term. East China ports are expected to continue to accumulate stocks, with sufficient supply on the market. Pure benzene will continue its weak trend in the short term, and we will wait and see if the cost and demand can be improved.
Pure benzene is still likely to weaken in the short term, and aniline cost support is insufficient. In December, the maintenance of aniline device was less and the supply side was sufficient. The downstream MDI demand is temporarily stable, and the auxiliary industry has entered the off-season, with poor demand performance. On the whole, the aniline market continued to be weak in December, with a weak rebound. In the later period, we continued to pay attention to the trend of cost, changes in downstream demand and changes in the operating rate of aniline plants.
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