Since October, the domestic bisphenol A market has fallen sharply. As of December 12, the market negotiation was 10000-10100 yuan/ton, and the low point fell below 10000 yuan on December 8. The negotiation fell to 9850 yuan/ton, 40% lower than the market negotiation of 16475 yuan/ton on September 27. The downtrend is mainly due to the intensification of the contradiction between supply and demand. This wave of downtrend has made BPA enterprises enter into a loss state. Due to the deviation of upstream and downstream fluctuations in the industrial chain, the profits of major products in the BPA industrial chain have been redistributed.
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New capacity was put into production in the fourth quarter, and the supply increased sharply
The supply of domestic bisphenol A has increased significantly since the fourth quarter, but the loss of domestic devices is significantly lower than the increase in production, except for the centralized maintenance of several devices in November. The domestic supply of bisphenol A has an obvious increasing trend. It is expected that the output in December will reach 260000 tons, compared with the previous monthly average output of 180000 to 200000 tons, the overall supply in the fourth quarter has increased significantly.
Due to the epidemic situation, downstream demands such as epoxy resin are difficult to release
Under the influence of the domestic multi spot epidemic in November again, the downstream demand and consumption decreased. Most products such as epoxy resin and PC used to digest the raw materials in stock, and the purchase intention weakened. With the decrease of terminal orders, downstream products such as epoxy resin fell synchronously.
Profit redistribution of bisphenol A industrial chain in the fourth quarter
It can be seen from the industrial chain diagram of bisphenol A that the decline of bisphenol A is much greater than that of raw materials phenol and acetone. In the fourth quarter, the profit space of bisphenol A gradually decreased. In December, with the sharp rebound of phenol/acetone market, the profit of bisphenol A industry entered a loss state. From the perspective of the two downstream areas, the decline of epoxy resin was equivalent to that of raw materials, while the decline of PC products was lower than that of raw materials bisphenol A due to the impact of their own supply and demand. However, in view of the impact of high price raw materials bisphenol A, PC was in a loss state. Since November, the downstream PC has turned into a profit, and the gross profit of the industry has increased.
From the perspective of cost, the raw material phenol/acetone continued to be strong in December. Bisphenol A had a downward trend on the 9th due to cost support. However, with the impact of import supply supplement and device restart, the contradiction between supply and demand was weakened. The phenol/acetone callback on the raw material side was expected to be large, and the support from the cost side was weakened. From the perspective of demand, it is still difficult to recover downstream demand before the year, and the supply of bisphenol A is expected to be 260000 tons in December. In addition, although supporting devices are put into production in the downstream, the increase is far less than the raw material end, and the short-term contradiction between supply and demand of bisphenol A is still prominent. It is expected that bisphenol A will rise in a narrow range in the short term or supported by costs. However, after adjustment, the market of bisphenol A will be consolidated and operated in the bottoming out period with the gradual release of new capacity and loose supply.
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