Looking at the trend chart of coal tar ex factory price in Shanxi Province in 2022, it can be seen that the average ex factory price at the beginning of 2022 is 4470 yuan/ton, and the year-end price is 6575 yuan/ton, with an annual increase of 47.09%%. The highest point in the year was 6712.5 yuan/ton on November 3, and the lowest point in the year was 4770 yuan/ton on January 1, with the maximum amplitude of 50.17%. The overall trend of the coal tar market in 2022 will be the main actor. Only in the second quarter, after a brief shock, the price will continue to maintain an upward trend. At the beginning of November, it experienced a price correction and continued to move up after a short correction.
According to the price monitoring of the business community, the coal tar market will rise more or fall less in 2022, rising for 8 months in total, declining for 2 months, and keeping stable for 1 month. The highest rise was 6.86% in March, and the highest fall was 2.49% in May.
From the beginning of the first phase to the middle of March: 8.13% increase in the shock cycle after the big rise
At the beginning of the year, the demand of coal tar market for pre holiday stock began to release. At the same time, coking enterprises were strictly limited in production, and the overall supply of tar was tight. Under the influence of good supply shortage and demand, the price of the first round of post holiday auction rose significantly, with an increase of 100-200 yuan/ton in Shanxi, the main production area. However, as the profits of coking enterprises began to recover after the increase of coke, the operating rate of coking enterprises began to rise, the tight situation of tar supply was eased to some extent, and the price of coal tar entered the narrow consolidation stage until the middle of March.
The second stage: from mid March to mid June: 2.16% increase in wide range shock cycle
The price of coal tar fluctuates in this cycle, which is mainly affected by both supply and demand. In terms of demand, the overall demand of the downstream deep processing industry has been relatively stable, and the overall trend of the main downstream commodities, naphthalene, anthracene oil, wash oil, asphalt, etc., is relatively strong this year. Therefore, the main factors affecting the price fluctuation of tar are still on the supply side. In terms of supply, it can be seen from the trend chart of coke price that the increase and decrease of coke are also frequent. As a by-product, the supply of coal tar fluctuates greatly, and the operating rate of coking enterprises basically changes according to the rule that the operating rate rises when the coke rises and starts, and the tar output increases accordingly. Later, when the supply increased to a certain extent, it began to enter into the lift off cycle. During the lift off cycle, most coke enterprises will actively increase their efforts to limit production, and the tar output will decline accordingly. In this cycle, the coke output fluctuated frequently, which also led to the fluctuation of the tar output, thus affecting the wide fluctuation trend of the tar price in this cycle.
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The third stage: from mid June to now: 33.16% in a continuous rising cycle
After entering the second half of the year, the tar market continued to rise and set new records again and again. The main factors for this round of increase were still concentrated on supply and demand. After entering August, the deep processing market began to take power, and the products related to deep processing continued to rise, especially the coal tar pitch, which rose 1700 yuan/ton in the cycle. Downstream products performed well, and they were highly receptive to the rise in the price of raw tar, driven by downstream demand, Tar prices continued to rise. In terms of supply, the overall change of coking enterprises’ commencement in summer is not great. Since October, as the weather turns cold, coking enterprises have entered the environment-friendly production restriction season. The operating rate of enterprises is generally low, and the tar supply is tight again, boosting the mentality of coking enterprises, and the tar bidding price continues to rise. The price of coal tar hit new highs again and again with the support of both supply and demand.
How will the coal tar market go? From the perspective of supply and demand:
Supply: The tar output of coking enterprises with seasonal production limit has declined slightly
Supply: High temperature coal tar is one of the main by-products in the coke production process. Monitoring the coke output can better understand the production of coal tar. Since the third quarter, the coke output has declined significantly. According to the statistics of the business community, the average operating rate of the coking enterprises in the third quarter of 2022 will be 71%, down 7% from the second quarter. In November, the operating rate of the coking enterprises will be about 61%, down 10% from the average operating rate in the third quarter. As a by-product of the coking plant, coal tar has been in a tight supply since the third quarter due to the reduction of the operating rate of the coking enterprises. The coking enterprises have a strong attitude of price fixing. Recently, although the coke enterprises have recovered slightly due to the impact of the increase of coke, the overall production of coal tar is still in a seasonal production reduction cycle. It is expected that the tar supply will remain tight until March 23.
Demand: Deep processing industry has a strong fear of high profits
Demand: Industrial naphthalene, anthracene oil, washing oil and coal tar pitch are the main commodities in the deep processing industry of coal tar. It can be seen from the above table that the prices of related commodities in the deep processing industry will rise all the way in 2022, of which the coal tar pitch with the largest increase will rise by 2300 yuan/ton annually, while the industrial naphthalene with the smallest increase will also rise by 450 yuan/ton after the year-end callback. The strong performance of downstream products is also the main factor to boost the price of coal tar. However, with the rising price of tar, the fear of heights in the deep processing industry has gradually increased. After entering November, the tar price experienced a sharp correction under the boycott of the deep processing industry, but after the correction, the price continued to rise steadily, boosted by downstream demand. According to the business community, the coal tar deep processing enterprises are still profitable, and the operating rate remains at a normal level for a long time. The demand for tar is still well supported.
At the end of the last bidding before the press release on December 9, the overall bid price of the regions with large differences in coal tar market performance and slightly lower prices in the early stage in East China increased significantly this week. The auction price in Shandong rose to 6630-6650 yuan/ton this week, Henan rose to 6600 yuan/ton, and the overall increase was about 200 yuan/ton. However, in Shanxi and other regions with higher prices in the early stage, the price has decreased by a narrow margin, and is currently around 6550-6610 yuan/ton.
In the future market, the business community believes that the supply of coking enterprises is still at a low level. Although the transportation problem of raw material coking coal has been solved, and the passive production restriction caused by raw materials has decreased, with the continuous rise of coking coal prices, some coke enterprises have taken the initiative to limit production under the influence of profits. The overall supply of tar is slightly tight, and the coking enterprises are still strong in price fixing mentality. In terms of demand, the profit of the deep processing industry has declined significantly, the price of deep processing products has risen and fallen mutually, and the downstream industry has become more resistant to the high price of tar. In general, with the gradual recovery of automobile transportation, the market circulation has begun to improve. Supported by tight supply, it is expected that the tar market will remain stable and strong in the future, but there is limited room for growth.
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