The spot tin market price (2.24-3.3) fell this week. The average price of the domestic market was 211410 yuan/ton at the end of last week, 198910 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 5.91%.
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The commodity price K-bar chart uses the concept of price trend K-line to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates: rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. From the above figure, we can see that tin prices are mainly affected by macro factors after November 2022. Since February, the price has dropped.
In the futures market, the US dollar index rose sharply at the beginning of the week, and the metal market was generally under pressure. The US dollar index fluctuated in the middle of the week, and the market rose slightly. However, due to the negative economic data, the expectation of interest rate increase was strengthened, and the US dollar index strengthened again. At the end of the week, the London tin price fell again, and the overall trend of the week was weak.
The trend of the spot market this week is basically consistent with that of the Shanghai Tin Exchange, and the overall price decline is obvious. As the price fell below 200000 yuan this week, the smelter’s overall willingness to ship was low, and the attitude of price support was strong. The market’s intra-week trading was also slightly cold, and there was no willingness to receive goods accompanied by lower prices. On the supply side, the smelter has resumed its normal operation and the supply is relatively stable. In terms of demand, the downstream still has the intention of purchasing in demand after the holiday, and the market has some bargain-hunting and replenishment. The highlight of downstream demand in the near future is photovoltaic. With the increasingly obvious signs of market recovery, market participants are generally optimistic about the future. However, the current tin inventory is still on the high side, dragging down the tin price. The tin price is greatly affected by the macro economy. In the future, the tin market is expected to remain stable and weak. It is necessary to focus on the recovery of downstream demand and the impact of macro policies on the market mentality.
The base metal index stood at 1231 points on March 4, which was the same as yesterday, down 23.82% from the highest point of 1616 points in the cycle (2022-03-09), and up 91.74% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24, 2015. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).
According to the price monitoring of the Business News Agency, there were 6 commodities in the non-ferrous sector in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 9th week of 2023 (2.27-3.3), with cobalt (1.57%), aluminum (1.29%) and copper (1.29%) among the top three commodities. There are 14 commodities with a month-on-month decline and 6 commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 26.1% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The top three products falling were dysprosium ferroalloy (- 8.99%), dysprosium oxide (- 8.29%) and praseodymium neodymium oxide (- 6.57%). This week’s average rise and fall was – 2.2%.
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