Price trend
| PVA |
Recently, the domestic ABS market is weak, and the spot price has been reduced in a narrow range. According to data monitoring by the Business News Agency, as of March 20, the average price of ABS sample products was 11825 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.07% compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.
Cause analysis
Supply: The current high load situation in the ABS industry has slightly improved, but overall construction is still above 80%. There is abundant on-site spot supply. Last week, due to the entry of new materials into the market, competition intensified, and supply side pressure was on the high side. Domestic inventory has accumulated, and the factory price of petrochemical plants has declined under pressure.
In terms of raw materials: Recently, the overall performance of ABS upstream three materials is weak. The acrylonitrile market has declined slightly since March. The price of raw materials decreased, and the cost of acrylonitrile declined; The supply side of acrylonitrile has declined slightly due to the shutdown and maintenance of Koroor and the load reduction operation of SECCO. The acrylonitrile market is currently showing a slight deadlock.
Recently, the domestic butadiene market rose first and then fell. Last week, the external quotation of Sinopec Junior High School was raised, which once boosted the mentality of merchants. However, with the production of Dongming Petrochemical Unit and the restart of Zhejiang Petrochemical Unit 2, the market supply has increased significantly, while the main downstream Chuanhua cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber unit unexpectedly shut down, resulting in a significant contradiction between supply and demand, and the butadiene market has turned downward.
Last week, the styrene market in Shandong fluctuated and fell. Spot demand for styrene is poor, international oil prices continue to decline, and cost support is moderate. It is expected that short-term volatility in the styrene market will be dominated by lower prices.
Demand: Recently, downstream factories, including the main terminal appliance industry, have been generally proactive in stocking, and some manufacturers still have raw material inventory to digest. Overall demand improvement is limited, actual transaction volume is weak, and the smoothness of on-site delivery is poor.
Aftermarket Forecast
Recently, the overall trend of ABS upstream three materials has been weak, with poor support for ABS cost side. The high starting point of petrochemical plants has slightly decreased, and the market supply continues to be abundant. Demand side support is poor, merchants’ mentality is weak, and operations tend to yield profits and take orders. The process of reducing the negative load of petrochemical plants will take time, and it is expected that the ABS market will continue to digest the contradiction between supply and demand and operate weakly in the short term.
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