In the first quarter, the MIBK market experienced a rapid increase and continued to decline. The outbound price of tank trucks increased from 14766 yuan/ton to 21000 yuan/ton, with a maximum amplitude of 42% in the first quarter. As of April 5th, it fell to 15400 yuan/ton, a month on month decrease of 17.1% and a year-on-year increase of 8.83%. The market trend in the first quarter was mainly influenced by the significant reduction in domestic production and the strong factors of speculation. The rapid replenishment of import volume and the production of new devices eased the expected tight supply situation, as well as the limited acceptance of high priced raw materials due to the continuous downturn in demand. The MIBK market may enter a period of weak adjustment in the second quarter.
The sluggish demand has limited procurement of raw materials, and there may be plans to shut down major downstream antioxidants. The slow resumption of downstream work has a low demand for raw material MIBK, and the sluggish terminal manufacturing industry has limited acceptance of high priced MIBK. However, traders are under great pressure to ship, and under the expected difficulty in improving, actual orders on the market continue to decline, and transactions are mostly small orders that just need to be followed up. In the second quarter, there are still difficulties in increasing terminal demand, and there may be plans to shut down the antioxidant 4020 industry. With the prolonged decline of MIBK, the decline space is narrowing, and there is also a possibility of a phased pullback in the market for bargain-hunting and appropriate inventory. The spot trading strategy can rely on the commodity market analysis system of the business society. In the product spot strategy, the prices within the cycle are divided into five levels: high, medium high, medium, medium low, and low. Based on the current price position, the inventory trading strategy is guided
The import volume has been replenished sufficiently. It is reported that China’s imports to South Korea increased by 125% in January, and the total import volume in February was 5460 tons, an increase of 123% compared to the previous month. Affected by the tight domestic supply and the sharp rise in prices, the import volume increased significantly in the first quarter, which has a significant impact on the domestic supply side. In the second quarter, there was sufficient social inventory and the supply side remained loose.
From the perspective of the business community, the MIBK market rose sharply and fell sharply in the first quarter. Finally, due to the cold demand, the market price gradually returned to rational space. In April, the change of domestic supply was limited, but there may also be short-term accidental maintenance. At present, the enterprise has sufficient inventory, while imports may have a certain decline, and the overall supply declined slightly. However, in April, there was a serious lack of demand confidence, and due to cost factors, high priced raw materials resisted. As a result, the mentality of shippers also changed, resulting in an increase in profits and shipments. However, overall, there is a small amount of downstream inventory, and in order to maintain production demand, there may be restocking in the later stage. In the second quarter, as prices decline or there is bottoming out behavior, it is difficult for the demand side to improve in the second quarter, and there may be a shutdown expectation for antioxidants, resulting in poor demand. It is expected that MIBK will gradually reach its bottom in April and enter a weak adjustment period.
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