According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the PP market rose and then fell in April, with the overall decline of various wire drawing brands. As of April 26th, the mainstream quoted price of T30S (wire drawing) by domestic producers and traders is around 7721.43 yuan/ton, with a decrease of -1.33% compared to the average price at the beginning of the month.
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Cause analysis
Industry chain: In terms of upstream, the Shandong market for propylene in April rose first and then declined. In the early days, due to the significant increase in international crude oil and the impact of cost factors, propylene rebounded and showed a significant upward trend. Subsequently, downstream resistance to high prices intensified, and the wait-and-see atmosphere became more intense. In addition, the decline in crude oil led to a broad decline in propylene in the second half of the month, and companies allowed profits to ship. The industry has high expectations for a decline in the future, and in the atmosphere of buying up rather than buying down, it is expected that the short-term trend of propylene will continue to decline weakly.
Propylene prices rose first and then fell, providing unstable support for the PP cost side. In terms of industry load, the operating situation of PP enterprises in April was relatively narrow, and the overall industry load fluctuated between 80% -75%, with overall stable shipments. There is sufficient supply of goods on site, with a slight decrease in inventory, but supply pressure still exists. In terms of demand, the operating rates of downstream plastic weaving and film materials enterprises are fluctuating, and the stocking situation of terminal enterprises is average, with on-demand procurement being the main focus.
In terms of fiber materials, according to data monitored by Business Society, as of April 26th, the spot price of domestic fiber PP has risen and then fallen. The mainstream quoted price of domestic producers and traders Z30S (fiber) is around 7712.50 yuan/ton, which is a 0% increase or decrease compared to the average price at the beginning of the month, and a 13.83% decrease compared to the same period last year. This month, the downstream non-woven fabric enterprises, the main force of PP fiber materials, have continuously adjusted their load to a low and narrow range, with an overall operating rate of around 30%. In the first ten days, fiber materials rose due to the favorable cost side, but the weak demand from end enterprises dragged the market. The digestion speed of non-woven end products was poor, and the enterprise’s replenishment operation of fiber PP lagged behind. It is expected to maintain a weak and stable pattern in the short term.
In terms of melt blown materials, the melt blown PP market continued to decline this month. As of April 26th, the average quotation of domestic melt blown material sample enterprises monitored by the Business Society is around 8275 yuan/ton. Compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month, the price has increased or decreased by -3.78%, with a year-on-year decrease of 19.66%. At present, the domestic health situation is stabilizing, and social consumption is becoming increasingly weak in driving medical meltblown fabric materials. The overseas demand has also not shown significant support, and traders are giving up profits and taking orders. It is expected that the melt blown material market may continue to operate in a weak trend.
Future Market Forecast
PP analysts from Business Society believe that the polypropylene market fluctuated and fell in April. The raw material propylene market rose and then fell, with insufficient support from the cost side for the market. Terminal enterprises tend to maintain production on a demand basis, with weak demand release. On the market long short game, it is expected that the PP market may maintain a weak adjustment trend in the short term.
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