According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic BDO market has continued to rise since the Qingming Festival. From April 6th to May 8th, the average price of domestic BDO increased from 10220 yuan/ton to 12414 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 21.74% during the cycle and a year-on-year decrease of 48.40%.
The main reason for the increase in BDO prices this time is due to the supply side, with most of the major production enterprises undergoing device maintenance. Although some devices have restarted over time, the overall market operating rate is still below 60%. At the same time, some enterprises have outsourced their products to meet the production needs of the industrial chain, and the bidding prices for outsourcing are relatively high, which once boosted the market atmosphere. Production enterprises and traders actively support the market, but the demand from downstream terminals is average, and their ability to accept high prices is limited. The market operates at a high level, but the trading volume is limited.
Cost side, raw material calcium carbide: The domestic calcium carbide market is mainly operating at a low level, with a decrease of 3.18% over the same period. Insufficient order follow-up, high inventory pressure, and average calcium carbide shipment. In terms of methanol, the domestic methanol market is mainly weak, with a decrease of 1.28% over the same period. The market for methanol raw material coal is sluggish, and the overall market circulation is large. The supply-demand contradiction is still enveloping the methanol market. Recently, the market for calcium carbide and methanol has been operating at low levels, and there is currently no significant improvement in the cost of BDO.
On the demand side, some downstream manufacturers are chasing up and stocking up before the holiday. Holders have a strong willingness to sell at low prices, and the market center is strong and upward. In the short term after the holiday, downstream manufacturers mainly consume inventory, and currently, high prices are mostly wait-and-see. Specifically, the PTMEG spandex industry chain is at a high starting point; The operating load of PU slurry and TPU industry in the polyurethane field is 50%. Maintain just needed orders. The demand for short-term BDO is mixed.
In the future, it is predicted that device restart, parking maintenance, or load reduction operations will all exist, resulting in a decrease in overall market supply. However, considering the average follow-up of terminal demand, BDO analysts from the business agency predict that the domestic BDO market may experience high volatility.
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