Aluminum prices fluctuated sideways in May
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 31, 2023, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in the East China market was 18290 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.08% compared to the aluminum price of 18490 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month (May 1).
In the long term, the current price is in the sideways range after a high price decline, and has been fluctuating in the range of 17500 to 19500 yuan/ton.
Overview of Fundamentals
1. The cost center of electrolytic aluminum smelting continues to move downwards. The decline in prices of pre baked anodes, alumina, and coal has weakened the cost support for aluminum prices/ P>
2. On the domestic demand side, the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises has slightly declined, and it is expected that the operating rate will be difficult to improve as the industry’s off-season approaches.
On the domestic supply side, production capacity in various regions has continued to increase slightly, and the tense situation has improved. Inner Mongolia Baiyinhua Aluminum Industry plans to fully achieve production of 400000 tons in the second half of the year.
Future market forecast
In terms of inventory, the domestic social inventory continues to decline, and the profit level per ton of aluminum is currently acceptable. It is expected that the supply of manufacturers will not decrease in the future, but it is still necessary to continue to pay attention to the water and electricity supply situation in the southwest region. It is expected that aluminum prices will maintain the current broad volatility pattern in the short term.
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