According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic aggregated MDI market experienced high volatility in June. From June 1st to 28th, the domestic aggregated MDI market price increased from 15600 yuan/ton to 16400 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 5.13% during the cycle and a maximum amplitude of 8.21%. The price fell by 9.93% year-on-year.
At the beginning of the month, the atmosphere of the domestic aggregated MDI market significantly improved, with traders facing tight supply and prices gradually rising. Major production enterprises announced the latest prices for June, boosting the market atmosphere. The downstream market slowly followed up, and the tracking atmosphere was still average. We continue to wait for digestion and follow-up.
In mid month, major production enterprises announced mid month guidance prices, which were slightly increased, boosting market sentiment and causing traders to quote higher prices. Under the concentrated boost of many positive news, reserve orders have increased, buying has improved, and prices continue to rise.
In the latter half of this month, multiple production enterprises began to inspect their devices one after another, resulting in a tight supply of goods in the market. Traders took advantage of this opportunity to increase their quotations, and there was also incremental support in the terminal export market. The market atmosphere continued to be warm.
Towards the end of the month, although major production enterprises suspended sales, traders still had relatively abundant supply of goods on hand. Downstream resistance to high prices led to demand orders, and the market atmosphere immediately weakened, leading to a narrow decline in aggregated MDI prices.
On the supply side, the operating rate of the unit is low. The 3.5+2.4 million ton/year mother liquor unit of Shanghai Lianheng has been overhauled since June 11, which affects the rectification units of Huntsman Corporation and BASF, the 400000 ton/year unit of Ningbo Phase I has been shut down for maintenance, and the 800000 ton/year unit of Phase II has been operated at low load. In addition, the load of the Fujian unit has been reduced to maintain about 50% of the operating load, which adds up to the 600000 ton/year unit of Shanghai due to the front-end raw material supply problem, Resulting in a decrease in operating load and expected shrinkage in supply and inventory of goods.
On the cost side, raw material pure benzene: The domestic pure benzene market continued to be weak in June. As of June 28th, the benchmark price of pure benzene for Shangshang Society was 6187.17 yuan/ton, a decrease of -5.69% compared to the beginning of this month (6560.50 yuan/ton). The overall demand atmosphere is weak, with downstream consumption of raw material inventory being the main factor, making it difficult for the pure benzene market to change the downward trend. Raw material aniline: In June, the aniline market was dominated by weak consolidation. As of June 28th, the benchmark price of aniline in Shangshang Society was 10225.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -6.30% compared to the beginning of this month (10912.50 yuan/ton). The cost side of short-term aggregated MDI is bearish.
On the demand side, based on the buying gas in the first half of June, there is still more buying and rising in the downstream, with prices continuing to rise and a stronger willingness to consume inventory. As prices reach high levels, downstream resistance breeds, the market atmosphere weakens, and the price trend narrows down. The demand for short-term aggregated MDI is mixed.
In the future market forecast, as prices rise, the market atmosphere gradually weakens, and traders’ quotes are scarce, with a focus on wait-and-see. Business Society aggregates MDI analysts
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