1、 Price trend
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According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, the spot price of PVC carbide SG5 has risen this week. Last Friday, the average domestic PVC price was 5490 yuan/ton, and this Friday’s average price was 5615 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 2.28% during the week.
2、 Market analysis
The price of PVC in the domestic Spot market rose this week. The increase in upstream calcium carbide prices this week, coupled with the delay of two policies in the “16 Financial Regulations” issued on the evening of July 10th, has boosted the confidence of the PVC market. The futures market continues to rise, and spot prices are gradually following suit. As of now, the quotation range for PVC5 carbide materials in China is mostly around 5450-5900 yuan/ton.
On July 13th, international crude oil futures rose. The settlement price of the main contract for US WTI crude oil futures was $76.89 per barrel, up $1.14 or 1.5%. The settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $81.36 per barrel, an increase of $1.25 or 1.6%. Inflation in the United States has cooled beyond expectations, the necessity for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates has decreased, coupled with seasonal peak demand from refineries and OPEC production cuts in oil producing countries, heating up the oil market.
In terms of calcium carbide, according to data monitored by the Business Society, the prices of calcium carbide manufacturers have increased this week. Last Friday, the average price of calcium carbide was 2866.67 yuan/ton, while this Friday’s average price was 2950 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 2.91% during the week. The price of raw material Shenmulan charcoal is around 1020 yuan/ton, with low prices consolidating and average cost support for calcium carbide. The downstream PVC market has recently slightly increased, and downstream customers have increased their enthusiasm for purchasing calcium carbide. In the future, it is expected that the factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region may slightly increase, with consolidation being the main focus. The average price quoted by the manufacturer is around 3000 yuan/ton.
In terms of terminal real estate, on the evening of July 10, the People’s Bank of China and the National Administration of Financial Regulation issued the Notice on Extending the Term of Policies Related to Financial Support for the Steady and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market (hereinafter referred to as the “Notice”). If there is a term of application for the relevant policies in the “Article 16 of Finance”, the term of application will be uniformly extended to December 31, 2024. It is understood that there are two policy extensions, involving stock financing for real estate enterprises and special loan matching financing issued by commercial banks. In the view of industry insiders, the extension of the two policies helps to promote project completion and delivery, while ensuring the delivery of the building, it also helps to repair market expectations.
3、 Future Market Forecast
PVC analysts from the business agency believe that the trading atmosphere in the PVC Spot market is good and the price is rising this week. The increase in upstream calcium carbide prices has provided strong support, coupled with the extension of two policies in the “Financial 16″, which has also boosted the confidence of the PVC market. It is expected that the PVC market will be relatively strong in the short term, and we will closely monitor changes in the news.
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